international bandwidth trends in africaisoc-ny.org › afpif2015 › afpif2015_teleography.pdf ·...

International Bandwidth Trends in Africa

What Has (and Hasn’t) Changed in the Past Five Years

Patrick Christian

August 27, 2015

Let’s Start with the Global Picture Inter-Regional Internet Bandwidth, 2015

Shift Away from the U.S. Regional Capacity Connected to the U.S. & Canada, 2006-2015

Growth Has Slowed International Internet Bandwidth Global Growth

Private Networks Have Grown

International Internet, Private Network, and Switched Voice Capacity

IP Transit Prices Still Dropping Median 10 GigE IP Transit Prices in Major Global Cities

Submarine Capacity Growth 2002 - 2015

The Future

Lots of New Capacity in Africa

International Internet Bandwidth Growth - Africa

Even Faster Growth in SSA

Int’l Internet Bandwidth Growth – Sub-Saharan Africa

Africa is the Fastest Growing Region

International Internet Bandwidth Growth by Region, 2011-2015

What Has Changed?

• Sub capacity reaches 33 countries vs just 10 before 2009 (60 landing points vs 12)

• Seven countries have access to 3 or more cables

• Africa is world’s fastest growing region for Internet bandwidth growth over last five years

• Int’l Internet capacity increased more that 400% since 2011 (500% in SSA)

(Still) Mostly Connected to Europe Major International Internet Routes in Africa, 2015

Where in Europe? France & UK (Still) Share of Int’l Internet Bandwidth Connected to Africa

Europe Has Become the Hub Not Just for Africa…

Changes in Subregional Capacity Connected to Europe

Intra-Africa Connectivity Growth

Share of Africa Int’l Internet Bandwidth by Region, 2011 vs 2015

Growth of Small Routes

Country-to-Country Routes to Europe vs Within Africa 2015

Transit and Transport Pricing

IP Transit Port Prices Q2 2015 Median STM-1 IP Transit Prices in Africa, Q2 2015

Transport Prices Rapidly Decreasing

Median STM-1 Monthly Lease Prices in Africa, 2012-2015

African Routes in Line with Other Major (High Cost) Routes

Median STM-1 IPL Price Trends on Major London Routes

Some Prices Have Not Dropped…

Nigeria

Africa

Retail Residential Fixed Broadband Prices (1 & 2 Mbps Plans)

3G Mobile Subs Growing 3G & 4G Mobile Subscribers in Africa, 2010-2014

What Hasn’t Changed for Africa? • African Internet capacity is still a small

fraction of total global capacity

– Int’l capacity connected to Africa only accounts for 1-2% global bandwidth

• Int’l bandwidth remains primarily on the coast and connected to Europe

– Little cross-border capacity, terrestrial networks

• IP transit prices in Africa remain very high

– Lowest median price $75 per Mbps for an STM-1 vs where 10 Gbps increments are available, prices rarely exceed $25 per Mbps and are below $1 in Europe & the U.S.

Sum Up of Changes…

• Int’l Internet bandwidth within Africa has a larger share

– Intra-Africa capacity 10% vs 2% in 2011

• Growth in number of routes between African countries (under 1Gbps)

– Account for 2/3 small routes

• Wholesale IPT & IPL prices have dropped

– IPT prices reflect the cost of transport to a hub country, so as transport prices fall so will IPT; however, cross connect and backhaul fees remain expensive

Outlook

• The surge of sub cable construction is largely over and has infused the region with a significant amount of lit and potential capacity

• Terrestrial regional network construction has started to take off, already see increase in intra-African capacity

Outlook continued - Some Numbers

• Global int’l Internet bandwidth CAGR is forecast to be 29% between 2014-2021

• Africa will be the fastest growing region during this period with demand growing at a pace of 44% per year

• Demand driven by 3G & 4G mobile subscription growth - 200m (2015) to 573m (2019) from 23% of total subs to 42%

• Anticipate Africa IP transit prices to decline at a compounded annual rate of 29% slightly higher than the global average of 25%

Patrick Christian

Senior Analyst

pchristian@telegeography.com

international bandwidth trends in africaisoc-ny.org › afpif2015 › afpif2015_teleography.pdf ·...

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