international energy outlook 2016 · 2018-01-19 · worldwide policies to limit coal use intensify....
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www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
International Energy Outlook 2016
ForCenter on Global Energy PolicyColumbia UniversityJune 16, 2016 | New York, NY
ByAngelina LaRose
Key findings in the IEO2016 Reference case• World energy consumption increases from 549 quadrillion Btu in 2012 to 629
quadrillion Btu in 2020 and then to 815 quadrillion Btu in 2040, a 48% increase (1.4%/year). Non-OECD Asia (including China and India) account for more than half of the increase.
• The industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of delivered energy consumption; the world industrial sector still consumes over half of global delivered energy in 2040.
• Renewable energy is the world’s fastest-growing energy source, increasing by 2.6%/year; nuclear energy grows by 2.3%/year, from 4% of the global total in 2012 to 6% in 2040.
• Fossil fuels continue to supply more than three-fourths of world energy use in 2040.
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016 2
Key findings in the IEO2016 Reference case (continued)• Among the fossil fuels, natural gas grows the fastest. Coal use plateaus in
the mid-term as China shifts from energy-intensive industries to services and worldwide policies to limit coal use intensify. By 2030, natural gas surpasses coal as the world’s second largest energy source.
• In 2012, coal provided 40% of the world’s total net electricity generation. By 2040, coal, natural gas, and renewable energy sources provide roughly equal shares (28-29%) of world generation.
• With current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from about 32 billion metric tons in 2012 to 36 billion metric tons in 2020 and then to 43 billion metric tons in 2040, a 34% increase.
3Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Many global issues increase uncertainty…• Economic growth in key economies (China, Brazil, Russia, among others)
• Implementation and strength of climate policies
• Technology improvement rates (both supply and demand)
• Unrest in oil producing countries
• OPEC production
• Future of nuclear generating capacity
4Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Global outlook
5Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
U.S. OECDEurope
Japan SouthKorea
China India Brazil MiddleEast
Africa Russia
Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population
average annual percent change (2012–40)percent per year
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity (E/GDP) improvements moderate this trend
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
6
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Coal
Petroleum and other liquid fuels
Natural gas Renewables
Nuclear
Coal with U.S. CPP
Renewables with U.S. CPP
Share oftotal energy
world energy consumptionquadrillion Btu
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Renewables grow fastest, coal use plateaus, natural gas surpasses coal by 2030, and oil maintains its leading share
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016 and EIA, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (May 2015)
7
History Projections2012
33%
30%
28%22%
23%
26%
12%
17%
4%
6%
22%
16%
0
125
250
375
500
625
2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
world delivered energy consumption by end-use sectorquadrillion Btu
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
As total energy consumption grows, shares by end-use sector remain relatively unchanged
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
8
Industrial
Buildings
Transportation
Share of totaldelivered energy
20% 21%
54%
53%
25%26%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Electricity generation
Gross domestic product
world GDP and net electricity generationpercent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods)
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Economic growth drives electricity demand; electricity use grows at a faster rate than other delivered energy, but slower than GDP
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
9
History Projections2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Non-OECD
OECD
Share oftotal energy 57%
43%
65%
35%
world energy consumptionquadrillion Btu
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Non-OECD nations drive the increase in total energy use
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
10
History Projections2012
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
2012 2020 2030 2040
world energy consumptionquadrillion Btu
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Non-OECD Asia accounts for 55% of the world increase in energy use
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
11
Other non-OECD
Non-OECD Asia
OECD OECD
40
50
60
70
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Non-OECD
OECD
carbon intensity of energy consumption, 1990-2040kilograms CO2 per million Btu
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Projected carbon intensity of energy use (CO2/E) declines through 2040 in both OECD and non-OECD; non-OECD CO2/E rose over 2000–12
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
12
History Projections2012
Liquid fuels markets
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016 13
0 10 20 30 40
OECD Europe
OECD Asia
OECD Americas
Africa
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
Non-OECD Americas
Middle East
Non-OECD Asia
201220202040
world petroleum and other liquid fuels consumptionmillion barrels per day
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Most of the growth in world oil consumption occurs in the non-OECD regions — especially Asia
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
14
passenger-miles per capita (left-axis) and GDP per capita (horizontal-axis) for selected country groupings 2010–40
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Passenger-miles per person will rise as GDP per capita grows; travel growth is largely outside the OECD
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
15
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000
OECD
China
Othernon-OECD Asia
AfricaIndia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate
OPEC crude and lease condensate
Other liquids
world production of petroleum and other liquid fuelsmillion barrels per day
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Liquid fuels supplies from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers increase through 2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
16
History Projections2012
0 5 10 15
Gas-to-liquids
Coal-to-liquids
Biofuels
Refinery gain
Natural gas plant liquids
201220202040
million barrels per day
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
The largest components of other liquid fuels are NGPL, refinery gain, and biofuels
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
17
Natural gas markets
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016 18
world natural gas consumptiontrillion cubic feet
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Non-OECD nations will account for 76% of the growth in natural gas consumption
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
19
0
30
60
90
120
150
2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
OECD Non-OECD
0 5 10 15 20
Other OECD
Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia
Other non-OECD
OECD Americas
Middle East
Non-OECD AsiaChina Other
Other
Other
Other
Iran Saudi Arabia
United States
Russia
world change in natural gas production, 2012–40trillion cubic feet
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Non-OECD Asia, Middle East, and OECD Americas account for the largest increases in natural gas production
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
20
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2040 2012 2040 2012 2040
natural gas production by typetrillion cubic feet
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane will become increasingly important to gas supplies, not only for the U.S., but also China and Canada
Note: Other natural gas includes natural gas produced from structural and stratigraphic traps (e.g. reservoirs), historically referred to as ‘conventional’ production.Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
21
China Canada
Shale gas
Other gas
United States
Coalbed methane
Tight gas
Electricity markets
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016 22
-1
1
3
5
7
9
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Non-OECD electricity
Non-OECD GDP
OECD GDP
OECD electricity
world GDP and net electricity generationpercent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods)
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
GDP drives electricity demand growth, but the electricity growth rate compared to the GDP growth rate becomes smaller over time
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
23
History Projections2012
0
10
20
30
40
2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
world net electricity generation by sourcetrillion kilowatthours
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Renewables, natural gas, and coal all contribute roughly the same amount of global net electricity generation in 2040
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
24
Liquids
Other renewables
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydropower
world net electricity generation from renewable energy by sourcetrillion kilowatthours
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Wind and hydropower each account for one third of the increase in renewable generation; solar is fastest-growing (8.3%/year)
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
25
Biomass, waste, andtide/wave/ocean
Hydropower
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
0 40 80 120 160
Rest of world
Other non-OECD Asia
India
China
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia
OECD Asia
OECD Americas
OECD Europe
20122040
world installed nuclear capacity by regiongigawatts
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Virtually all of the growth in nuclear power will occur in the non-OECD regions; China accounts for 61% of world nuclear capacity growth
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
26
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016 27
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Liquid fuels
Coal
Natural gas
36% 36%
20%
43%26%
38%
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissionsbillion metric tons
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Coal remains the world’s largest source of energy-related CO2 emissions, but by 2040 its share declines to 38%
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
28
History Projections2012Share of total
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
China
United States with CPP
IndiaUnited States
coal consumption in the US, China, and Indiaquadrillion Btu
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Of the world’s three largest coal consumers, only India is projected to continue to increase throughout the projection
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016 and EIA, Analysis of the Impacts of the Clean Power Plan (May 2015)
29
History Projections2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 2000 2012 2020 2030 2040
OECD Other non-OECD Non-OECD Asia
world energy-related carbon dioxide emissionsbillion metric tons
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Non-OECD Asia will account for about 60% of the world increase in energy-related CO2 emissions
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
30
History Projections
For more informationU.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state
Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
International Energy Portal | www.eia.gov/beta/international/?src=home-b1
31Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Supplementary Slides
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016 32
0
10
20
30
40
Middle East North Africa West Africa South America
2012 2020 2040
OPEC crude and lease condensate productionmillion barrels per day
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
33
0
3
6
9
12
15
Brazil Russia Canada Kazakhstan China OECD Europe
2012 2020 2040
non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production in selected country groupingsmillion barrels per day
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Increases to non-OPEC oil supplies outside the United States are primarily from Brazil, Russia, Canada, and Kazakhstan
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
34
LNG capacity additionsbillion cubic feet per day
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Liquefaction capacity additions over the 2015-19 time period will increase global capacity by over 30%
Note: Capacity additions in 2015-19 include projects currently under construction, and represent nameplate capacity, not adjusted for ramp-upSource: U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates based on trade press
35
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Australia Colombia Indonesia Malaysia United States
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Canada Brazil India United States OECD Europe China
renewable net electricity generation by selected country and country grouping, 2040billion kilowatthours
Angelina LaRose, Center on Global Energy Policy June 16, 2016
Geographically, the scale and fuel mix of renewable generation in 2040 varies widely
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2016
36
Biomass, waste, andtide/wave/ocean
Hydropower
Solar
Wind
Geothermal
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