introduction to climate change - university of idahojhicke/courses/globalclimch_fall16/... ·...

GlobalClimateChange 1 ProfJ.Hicke

GEOG313/513Fall2016

Section1:IntroductiontoClimateChange

Learningoutcomes

• definitionofclimate• climatechangehasoccurredovermillionsofyears• recentwarmingwascausedbyhumans• projectionsindicatecontinuedwarming• climatechangeisacknowledgedbyalmostallclimatescientists,butnotasmanyofthe(US)public

GlobalClimateChange 2 ProfJ.Hicke

Climatesystemanditscomponents

www.gfdl.noaa.gov

GlobalClimateChange 3 ProfJ.Hicke

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Oceaniskeyclimatecomponent

GlobalClimateChange 4 ProfJ.Hicke

Recent(last100+years)climatechange

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

GlobalClimateChange 5 ProfJ.Hicke

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=4030

Five-YearGlobalTemperatureAnomaliesfrom1880to2012

GlobalClimateChange 6 ProfJ.Hicke

Historical(last12,000years)climatechange

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

GlobalClimateChange 7 ProfJ.Hicke

Historical(last2,000years)climatechange

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

GlobalClimateChange 8 ProfJ.Hicke

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

ConditionsinEuropeduringLittleIceAge

GlobalClimateChange 9 ProfJ.Hicke

Historical(last1,000years)climatechange

famous“hockeystick”graph

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

GlobalClimateChange 10 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Slowcoolingover10sofmillionsofyears

GlobalClimateChange 11 ProfJ.Hicke

"RadiativeforcingisameasureoftheinfluenceafactorhasinalteringthebalanceofincomingandoutgoingenergyintheEarth-atmospheresystemandisanindexoftheimportanceofthefactorasapotentialclimatechangemechanism.Inthisreportradiativeforcingvaluesareforchangesrelativetopreindustrialconditionsdefinedat1750andareexpressedinWattspersquaremeter(W/m2).”IPCC,AR4,2007

Radiativeforcing

GlobalClimateChange 12 ProfJ.Hicke

IPCC,AR5,2013

Recentradiativeforcing

GlobalClimateChange 13 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Explosivevolcanoesinfluenceclimate

GlobalClimateChange 14 ProfJ.Hicke

Kitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Orbital,solarforcing

GlobalClimateChange 15 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Increasesingreenhousegases

GlobalClimateChange 16 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Wheredoesthisextraenergygo?

GlobalClimateChange 17 ProfJ.Hicke

Historicalclimatechange

temperaturetrends

oceanheatcontenttrends

seaicetrend

IPCC2013WGIreport

GlobalClimateChange 18 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Changeincomponentsofclimatesystem

GlobalClimateChange 19 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Emissionsscenarios

GlobalClimateChange 20 ProfJ.Hicke

Climatechangeprojectionsusingmodels

IPCC,AR5,2013

GlobalClimateChange 21 ProfJ.HickeKitchen,2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Projectionsoffutureclimate

GlobalClimateChange 22 ProfJ.Hicke

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=4029

NationalClimateAssessment:21stCenturyTemperatureScenarios

GlobalClimateChange 23 ProfJ.Hicke

Climate change “denialism” abounds!