sec on 1: introduc onjhicke/courses/globalclimch_fall14/lectures/gcc_fall...global climate change 1...

Global Climate Change 1 Prof J. Hicke

Sec�on 1: Introduc�on

GEOG 313/513 Fall 2014


Outline

1. Sources of information

2. Recent and future climate change

3. Indicators and impacts

4. What can we do?

J. Hicke

J. Hicke

Alan Wilson

Climate Change: The Current Science


Outline




4. What can we do?

J. Hicke

J. Hicke

Alan Wilson



Climate change “denialism” abounds!


Listen to the experts!


“I don’t know anything about gall bladders and kidneys, but I do know something about windshields.”

Listen to the experts


3. Scientific organizations 4. National academies

2. National and international assessments

Listen to the experts!

1. Active climate scientists

97% are convinced of human-caused climate

change


Who is listening?

US military

hunters/anglers

religious groups

cities, states/provinces


Outline




4. What can we do?

J. Hicke

J. Hicke

Alan Wilson



Headline Statements from IPCC 2013 report

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal…the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentra�ons of greenhouse gases have increased.” “Human influence on the climate system is clear.” “Con�nued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming... Limi�ng climate change will require substan�al and sustained reduc�ons of greenhouse gas emissions.”


What’s new in IPCC 2013 report?

  improved analysis of observa�ons of climate system

  climate models have improved

  evidence for human influence has grown

  addi�onal impacts to human and natural systems have been documented


Recent (last 100+ years) climate change

J. E. Hansen, NASA GISS, data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp


h�p://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-‐bin/details.cgi?aid=4030

Anima�on of map of temperature anomalies during last 100+ years


Historical (last 12,000 years) climate change

Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.


Historical climate change from IPCC 2013 report

temperature trends

ocean heat

content trends

sea ice trend

IPCC 2013 WGI report


Future climate change from IPCC 2013 report



Causes (“forcings”) of climate change

J. Hicke

J. Hicke

Alan Wilson


Global Climate Change 20 Prof J. Hicke www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Carbon emissions con�nue

Global Climate Change 21 Prof J. Hicke www.globalwarmingart.com

CO2 higher than any �me in last 400,000 years

Global Climate Change 22 Prof J. Hicke Kitchen, 2013 © 2014 Pearson Education, Inc.

Increases in greenhouse gases


Causes of climate change from IPCC AR5 SPM


Outline




4. What can we do?

J. Hicke

J. Hicke

Alan Wilson



USGCRP, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009

Changes in extreme events Historical observa�ons

Model projec�ons

Na�onal Climate Assessment, dra�, 2013

Global Climate Change 26 Prof J. Hicke USGCRP, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, 2009

Impacts to snow, streamflow


1920 (H. Richardson)

1992 (D. Jensen)

Benson Glacier, Eagle Cap,

Wallowa Mtns, OR

(courtesy USDA)

Andrew G. Fountain Portland State University


Es�mated effect of climate change on crop yields 1960-‐2013

IPCC 2013 WGII report

Global Climate Change 29 Prof J. Hicke IPCC 2013 WGII report

Projec�ons of sea level rise


5 Meters (18 Feet) Sea Level Rise

William Haxby, Lamont-‐Doherty Earth Observatory

If West Antarc�ca sheet melted…

Global Climate Change 31 Prof J. Hicke NOAA, State of Washington Report on Ocean Acidification, 2012

Ocean acidification from increased CO2

ocean pH (acidity)

  1900-2000: observed increase by 30%

  by 2100: projected doubling

Na�onal Climate Assessment, dra�, 2013

Global Climate Change 32 Prof J. Hicke National Climate Assessment, draft, 2013

3, 7. Tree mortality 8. Rocky Mountain high-elevation

areas: Flower phenology changes

11, 14. Earlier first flowering,

arrival dates 18. Northward movement of fish

Biological indicators and impacts


Bull trout habitat to decline with future warming

+0.6ºC

+1.6ºC +5.0ºC

Rieman et al. 2007

Joseph R. Tomelleri

Global Climate Change 34 Prof J. Hicke Raffa et al., BioScience, 2008

Bark beetle-‐caused tree mortality throughout North America

Photo by Craig Allen - USGS

© Parks Canada/Ross MacDonald/KNP/2004

Pinyon ips beetle

Mountain pine beetle

Spruce beetle


Wildfire: Projec�ons based on future climate change

Li�ell et al., Ecological Applica�ons, 2009; Na�onal Academies, Climate Stabiliza�on Targets, 2010

increase in burned area for 1º C increase in

temperature



Observed evidence is consistent with warming


Outline




4. What can we do?

J. Hicke

J. Hicke

Alan Wilson



1. Reduce energy use

1000bulbs.com

wikipedia.org

ehow.com


2. What else you can do

become more informed

talk to friends and family

vote with your dollars

support policy makers

www.homeartblog.com

www.port.ac.uk www.core77.com

blogs.villagevoice.com commons.wikimedia.org

consider career choices

www.dovetailsolar.com fullcircle.asu.edu


3. Increase use of renewable energy and avoid extracting more oil, gas, etc.

jonathanturley.org energy.gov

science.howstuffworks.com www.boem.gov


4. Develop new technology

ITER organiza�on

SOHO (ESA & NASA)

Nuclear fusion Solar roads

Ar�ficial trees

breakthroughgen.wordpress.com


Summary and Conclusions

  Climate change is happening and will continue   global AND local

  Serious impacts to environment, including humans

  We can reduce future climate change, but we have to act now

J. Hicke

J. Hicke

Alan Wilson


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