iran onshore/nearshore, assessment unit 11120105 assessment … · 2011. 3. 11. · undiscovered...

Undiscovered Resources Largest Undiscovered Field

MFS Prob. Oil (MMBO)

(0-1) F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean

Oil Fields 5 0 141 524 185 0 547 2,164 743 0 32 133 45 15 66 286 97

Gas Fields 30 0 1,856 5,635 2,218 0 79 259 98 163 616 2,239 823

Total 0.90 0 141 524 185 0 2,403 7,799 2,960 0 111 392 142

0.90

Iran Onshore/Nearshore, Assessment Unit 11120105Assessment Results Summary

[MMBO, million barrels of oil. BCFG, billion cubic feet of gas. MMBNGL, million barrels of natural gas liquids. MFS, minimum field size assessed (MMBO or BCFG). Prob., probability (including both geologic and accessibility probabilities) of at least one field equal to or greater than the MFS. Results shown are fully risked estimates. For gas fields, all liquids are included under the NGL (natural gas liquids) category. F95 represents a 95 percent chance of at least the amount tabulated. Other fractiles are defined similarly. Fractiles are additive under the assumption of perfect

positive correlation. Shading indicates not applicable]

Field Type Gas (BCFG) NGL (MMBNGL) (MMBO or BCFG)

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 700.00 MMBOEntire range is from 5.17 to 1,920.37 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.76

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 205.85Median 160.58Mode ---Standard Deviation 170.10Variance 28,933.52Skewness 1.67Kurtosis 7.19Coefficient of Variability 0.83Range Minimum 5.17Range Maximum 1,920.37Range Width 1,915.20Mean Standard Error 0.76

Frequency Chart

MMBO

.000

.007

.015

.022

.029

0

363.5

727

1454

0.00 175.00 350.00 525.00 700.00

50,000 Trials 889 Outliers

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields

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11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBO100% 5.17

95% 26.2890% 40.1385% 52.9080% 66.4775% 80.5070% 94.8965% 110.1060% 126.2355% 143.0050% 160.5845% 180.7740% 201.7035% 224.4630% 251.5125% 282.0120% 319.8715% 367.5510% 430.54

5% 538.220% 1,920.37

End of Forecast

Page 2

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 2,750.00 BCFGEntire range is from 14.03 to 7,312.81 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 3.21

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 825.24Median 626.08Mode ---Standard Deviation 718.01Variance 515,539.43Skewness 1.86Kurtosis 8.18Coefficient of Variability 0.87Range Minimum 14.03Range Maximum 7,312.81Range Width 7,298.78Mean Standard Error 3.21

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.007

.014

.021

.028

0

348.2

696.5

1393

0.00 687.50 1,375.00 2,062.50 2,750.00

50,000 Trials 1,192 Outliers

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields

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11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 14.03

95% 99.6790% 152.4985% 204.2280% 254.9675% 308.3870% 364.5865% 425.0160% 487.1655% 554.5750% 626.0845% 702.4640% 790.0135% 884.3730% 994.5925% 1,122.9520% 1,276.1215% 1,470.3810% 1,752.93

5% 2,240.090% 7,312.81

End of Forecast

Page 4

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 175.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 0.66 to 517.44 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.20

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 49.54Median 36.58Mode ---Standard Deviation 45.23Variance 2,045.78Skewness 2.10Kurtosis 10.00Coefficient of Variability 0.91Range Minimum 0.66Range Maximum 517.44Range Width 516.78Mean Standard Error 0.20

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.007

.015

.022

.030

0

374

748

1496

0.00 43.75 87.50 131.25 175.00

50,000 Trials 1,139 Outliers

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields

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11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 0.66

95% 5.6290% 8.7185% 11.7180% 14.7575% 17.8770% 21.1065% 24.6760% 28.3055% 32.3550% 36.5845% 41.1440% 46.2735% 52.0930% 58.7925% 66.7020% 76.2315% 88.4810% 106.81

5% 138.340% 517.44

End of Forecast

Page 6

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Oil Field

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 350.00 MMBOEntire range is from 5.17 to 748.98 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.43

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 96.99Median 66.41Mode ---Standard Deviation 96.60Variance 9,331.70Skewness 2.65Kurtosis 12.41Coefficient of Variability 1.00Range Minimum 5.17Range Maximum 748.98Range Width 743.81Mean Standard Error 0.43

Frequency Chart

MMBO

.000

.009

.018

.026

.035

0

438.5

877

1754

0.00 87.50 175.00 262.50 350.00

50,000 Trials 1,511 Outliers

Forecast: Largest Oil Field

Page 7

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Oil Field (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBO100% 5.17

95% 15.3990% 21.2985% 26.7280% 31.8675% 37.0270% 42.3365% 47.8460% 53.5955% 59.8050% 66.4145% 73.9540% 82.6735% 92.8830% 105.0825% 119.8420% 139.0415% 165.8210% 207.16

5% 286.170% 748.98

End of Forecast

Page 8

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 7,000.00 BCFGEntire range is from 33.22 to 13,109.89 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 7.75

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 2,464.33Median 2,095.05Mode ---Standard Deviation 1,733.06Variance 3,003,501.25Skewness 1.13Kurtosis 4.53Coefficient of Variability 0.70Range Minimum 33.22Range Maximum 13,109.89Range Width 13,076.67Mean Standard Error 7.75

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.005

.011

.016

.021

0

268.2

536.5

804.7

1073

0.00 1,750.00 3,500.00 5,250.00 7,000.00

50,000 Trials 992 Outliers

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields

Page 9

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 33.22

95% 399.8090% 587.2885% 760.5580% 928.5975% 1,109.0070% 1,295.1865% 1,486.0360% 1,674.7055% 1,880.0350% 2,095.0545% 2,320.5440% 2,559.9735% 2,830.2030% 3,108.8125% 3,436.6220% 3,808.5715% 4,259.0210% 4,848.80

5% 5,780.000% 13,109.89

End of Forecast

Page 10

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 350.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 1.09 to 813.17 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.36

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 108.56Median 89.40Mode ---Standard Deviation 81.17Variance 6,588.51Skewness 1.37Kurtosis 5.64Coefficient of Variability 0.75Range Minimum 1.09Range Maximum 813.17Range Width 812.08Mean Standard Error 0.36

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.006

.012

.018

.025

0

307.5

615

922.5

1230

0.00 87.50 175.00 262.50 350.00

50,000 Trials 709 Outliers

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields

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11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 1.09

95% 16.5790% 24.5585% 31.9680% 39.2975% 46.7970% 54.6065% 62.4860% 71.0855% 79.9050% 89.4045% 99.2440% 110.1235% 122.1330% 135.2825% 150.0620% 167.3615% 189.3110% 217.94

5% 265.930% 813.17

End of Forecast

Page 12

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Gas Field

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 2,750.00 BCFGEntire range is from 33.22 to 4,497.58 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 3.08

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 822.91Median 615.60Mode ---Standard Deviation 687.73Variance 472,969.44Skewness 2.02Kurtosis 8.04Coefficient of Variability 0.84Range Minimum 33.22Range Maximum 4,497.58Range Width 4,464.36Mean Standard Error 3.08

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.008

.016

.024

.032

0

394.5

789

1578

0.00 687.50 1,375.00 2,062.50 2,750.00

50,000 Trials 1,364 Outliers

Forecast: Largest Gas Field

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11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Gas Field (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 33.22

95% 162.5790% 222.8785% 273.2980% 319.4975% 364.8570% 409.6065% 458.0760% 506.3255% 558.2850% 615.6045% 679.2140% 749.8035% 830.8730% 927.1225% 1,042.0420% 1,188.9115% 1,387.9110% 1,682.98

5% 2,238.670% 4,497.58

End of Forecast

Page 14

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked Oil in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 700.00 MMBOEntire range is from 0.00 to 1,920.37 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.77

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 185.35Median 141.07Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 173.13Variance 29,973.43Skewness 1.63Kurtosis 7.02Coefficient of Variability 0.93Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 1,920.37Range Width 1,920.37Mean Standard Error 0.77

Frequency Chart

MMBO

.000

.026

.051

.077

.103

0

5133

0.00 175.00 350.00 525.00 700.00

50,000 Trials 803 Outliers

Forecast: G-Risked Oil in Oil Fields

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11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked Oil in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBO100% 0.00

95% 0.0090% 0.0085% 27.5680% 42.8675% 57.3370% 72.4165% 88.0560% 104.6355% 122.6250% 141.0745% 160.4840% 183.3735% 207.0430% 233.6525% 265.4520% 301.9215% 351.0910% 414.93

5% 523.640% 1,920.37

End of Forecast

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11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 2,750.00 BCFGEntire range is from 0.00 to 7,312.81 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 3.24

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 742.56Median 546.66Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 725.33Variance 526,104.13Skewness 1.83Kurtosis 8.05Coefficient of Variability 0.98Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 7,312.81Range Width 7,312.81Mean Standard Error 3.24

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.026

.052

.078

.103

0

5171

0.00 687.50 1,375.00 2,062.50 2,750.00

50,000 Trials 1,071 Outliers

Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Oil Fields

Page 17

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 0.00

95% 0.0090% 0.0085% 104.9080% 163.0175% 219.1270% 278.7465% 338.8660% 405.7755% 472.1650% 546.6645% 625.5740% 711.1535% 809.0230% 922.1025% 1,048.9220% 1,206.0415% 1,401.4610% 1,680.81

5% 2,164.050% 7,312.81

End of Forecast

Page 18

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 175.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 0.00 to 517.44 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.20

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 44.58Median 31.83Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 45.46Variance 2,066.40Skewness 2.06Kurtosis 9.76Coefficient of Variability 1.02Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 517.44Range Width 517.44Mean Standard Error 0.20

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.026

.052

.078

.105

0

5233

0.00 43.75 87.50 131.25 175.00

50,000 Trials 1,028 Outliers

Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Oil Fields

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11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 0.00

95% 0.0090% 0.0085% 5.9380% 9.3175% 12.5970% 16.0665% 19.5960% 23.4055% 27.4350% 31.8345% 36.5340% 41.6635% 47.5530% 54.2125% 62.2920% 71.6915% 84.0810% 102.49

5% 133.400% 517.44

End of Forecast

Page 20

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 7,000.00 BCFGEntire range is from 0.00 to 13,109.89 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 8.07

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 2,217.72Median 1,856.19Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 1,803.89Variance 3,254,023.06Skewness 1.06Kurtosis 4.27Coefficient of Variability 0.81Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 13,109.89Range Width 13,109.89Mean Standard Error 8.07

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.025

.051

.076

.102

0

5091

0.00 1,750.00 3,500.00 5,250.00 7,000.00

50,000 Trials 897 Outliers

Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Gas Fields

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11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 0.00

95% 0.0090% 0.0085% 416.6380% 624.6075% 813.3070% 1,009.0965% 1,212.9660% 1,422.9955% 1,635.4550% 1,856.1945% 2,096.0740% 2,348.5235% 2,623.0530% 2,919.9425% 3,247.1720% 3,634.6315% 4,096.0510% 4,701.25

5% 5,634.560% 13,109.89

End of Forecast

Page 22

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 350.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 0.00 to 788.69 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.37

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 97.66Median 79.02Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 83.56Variance 6,982.72Skewness 1.29Kurtosis 5.26Coefficient of Variability 0.86Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 788.69Range Width 788.69Mean Standard Error 0.37

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.026

.051

.077

.102

0

5121

0.00 87.50 175.00 262.50 350.00

50,000 Trials 634 Outliers

Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Gas Fields

Page 23

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 0.00

95% 0.0090% 0.0085% 17.3780% 26.0675% 34.3270% 42.5265% 51.0960% 59.5855% 69.2650% 79.0245% 89.5140% 100.4935% 112.8530% 126.2925% 141.6520% 159.4815% 181.3710% 211.32

5% 258.530% 788.69

End of Forecast

Page 24

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Assumptions

Assumption: Number of Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 1Likeliest 2Maximum 14

Selected range is from 1 to 14Mean value in simulation was 5

Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields

Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 33.34 38.34Standard Deviation 66.18 66.18

Selected range is from 0.00 to 745.00 5.00 to 750.00Mean value in simulation was 32.45 37.45

1 4 8 11 14

Number of Oil Fields

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11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields (cont'd)

Assumption: GOR in Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 2,000.00Likeliest 4,000.00Maximum 6,000.00

Selected range is from 2,000.00 to 6,000.00Mean value in simulation was 4,003.18

0.34 166.48 332.62 498.76 664.90

Sizes of Oil Fields

2,000.00 3,000.00 4,000.00 5,000.00 6,000.00

GOR in Oil Fields

Page 26

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: LGR in Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 30.00Likeliest 60.00Maximum 90.00

Selected range is from 30.00 to 90.00Mean value in simulation was 59.99

Assumption: Number of Gas Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 1Likeliest 4Maximum 28

Selected range is from 1 to 28Mean value in simulation was 11

30.00 45.00 60.00 75.00 90.00

LGR in Oil Fields

Page 27

11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: Number of Gas Fields (cont'd)

Assumption: Sizes of Gas Fields

Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 200.03 230.03Standard Deviation 397.05 397.05

Selected range is from 0.00 to 4,470.00 30.00 to 4,500.00Mean value in simulation was 193.12 223.12

1 8 15 21 28

Number of Gas Fields

2.03 998.87 1,995.72 2,992.56 3,989.40

Sizes of Gas Fields

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11120105Iran Onshore/Nearshore

Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: LGR in Gas Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 22.00Likeliest 44.00Maximum 66.00

Selected range is from 22.00 to 66.00Mean value in simulation was 44.00

End of Assumptions

Simulation started on 1/17/00 at 21:07:27Simulation stopped on 1/17/00 at 21:25:19

22.00 33.00 44.00 55.00 66.00

LGR in Gas Fields

Page 29