Undiscovered Resources Largest Undiscovered Field

MFS Prob. Oil (MMBO)

(0-1) F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean

Oil Fields 1 130 476 1,103 529 267 1,013 2,568 1,163 15 59 162 70 23 63 155 72

Gas Fields 6 320 966 2,062 1,054 13 41 96 46 58 143 359 166

Total 1.00 130 476 1,103 529 588 1,979 4,630 2,217 28 100 258 116

1.00

Balingian, Assessment Unit 37020102Assessment Results Summary

[MMBO, million barrels of oil. BCFG, billion cubic feet of gas. MMBNGL, million barrels of natural gas liquids. MFS, minimum field size assessed (MMBO or BCFG). Prob., probability (including both geologic and accessibility probabilities) of at least one field equal to or greater than the MFS. Results shown are fully risked estimates. For gas fields, all liquids are included under the NGL (natural gas liquids) category. F95 represents a 95 percent chance of at least the amount tabulated. Other fractiles are defined similarly. Fractiles are additive under the assumption of perfect

positive correlation. Shading indicates not applicable]

Field Type Gas (BCFG) NGL (MMBNGL) (MMBO or BCFG)

37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 1,500.00 MMBOEntire range is from 39.49 to 1,900.19 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 1.37

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 529.49Median 476.18Mode ---Standard Deviation 307.00Variance 94,248.05Skewness 0.67Kurtosis 2.78Coefficient of Variability 0.58Range Minimum 39.49Range Maximum 1,900.19Range Width 1,860.70Mean Standard Error 1.37

Frequency Chart

MMBO

.000

.006

.011

.017

.023

0

281.2

562.5

843.7

1125

0.00 375.00 750.00 1,125.00 1,500.00

50,000 Trials 74 Outliers

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields

Page 1

37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBO100% 39.49

95% 129.6690% 170.7485% 205.5780% 240.8575% 277.1170% 314.7665% 351.4360% 391.2455% 432.4350% 476.1845% 521.4240% 568.9435% 620.8630% 675.9125% 733.9020% 803.5915% 881.0510% 973.64

5% 1,103.090% 1,900.19

End of Forecast

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37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 3,500.00 BCFGEntire range is from 66.51 to 5,517.28 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 3.26

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 1,163.10Median 1,012.81Mode ---Standard Deviation 728.16Variance 530,215.05Skewness 0.93Kurtosis 3.60Coefficient of Variability 0.63Range Minimum 66.51Range Maximum 5,517.28Range Width 5,450.77Mean Standard Error 3.26

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.006

.012

.018

.024

0

296.2

592.5

888.7

1185

0.00 875.00 1,750.00 2,625.00 3,500.00

50,000 Trials 250 Outliers

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields

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37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 66.51

95% 267.4690% 353.8485% 430.4180% 506.8775% 584.9370% 663.2565% 742.3560% 828.3455% 920.6450% 1,012.8145% 1,114.4540% 1,221.2535% 1,334.4530% 1,459.7725% 1,596.2220% 1,758.3015% 1,951.8110% 2,194.57

5% 2,567.870% 5,517.28

End of Forecast

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37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 200.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 3.14 to 360.85 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.21

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 69.87Median 59.06Mode ---Standard Deviation 46.83Variance 2,192.90Skewness 1.18Kurtosis 4.55Coefficient of Variability 0.67Range Minimum 3.14Range Maximum 360.85Range Width 357.71Mean Standard Error 0.21

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.006

.011

.017

.023

0

281.2

562.5

843.7

1125

0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00

50,000 Trials 811 Outliers

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields

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37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 3.14

95% 15.0490% 20.1285% 24.6780% 29.2675% 33.7470% 38.4465% 43.2660% 48.3955% 53.5850% 59.0645% 65.0240% 71.5335% 78.4430% 86.3525% 95.4020% 105.3615% 118.1110% 134.88

5% 161.890% 360.85

End of Forecast

Page 6

37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Oil Field

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 200.00 MMBOEntire range is from 6.04 to 200.00 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.18

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 72.29Median 62.98Mode ---Standard Deviation 39.81Variance 1,584.82Skewness 0.96Kurtosis 3.43Coefficient of Variability 0.55Range Minimum 6.04Range Maximum 200.00Range Width 193.96Mean Standard Error 0.18

Frequency Chart

MMBO

.000

.007

.013

.020

.026

0

327

654

981

1308

0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00

50,000 Trials 0 Outliers

Forecast: Largest Oil Field

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37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Oil Field (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBO100% 6.04

95% 23.1090% 29.2085% 34.1080% 38.4175% 42.4270% 46.3965% 50.4160% 54.3955% 58.5450% 62.9845% 68.0540% 73.2235% 79.1230% 85.7825% 93.5520% 103.0915% 115.0810% 131.42

5% 155.040% 200.00

End of Forecast

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37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 2,500.00 BCFGEntire range is from 66.47 to 3,525.96 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 2.44

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 1,054.30Median 966.19Mode ---Standard Deviation 544.64Variance 296,633.65Skewness 0.65Kurtosis 2.91Coefficient of Variability 0.52Range Minimum 66.47Range Maximum 3,525.96Range Width 3,459.49Mean Standard Error 2.44

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.005

.010

.015

.020

0

255.5

511

766.5

1022

0.00 625.00 1,250.00 1,875.00 2,500.00

50,000 Trials 460 Outliers

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields

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37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 66.47

95% 320.1490% 414.4185% 488.6380% 556.4775% 622.6970% 688.7765% 752.5360% 822.0955% 893.3150% 966.1945% 1,046.1140% 1,127.5135% 1,216.4730% 1,310.8025% 1,412.4120% 1,531.3015% 1,668.0010% 1,829.01

5% 2,061.690% 3,525.96

End of Forecast

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37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 120.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 2.04 to 200.81 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.12

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 46.33Median 41.35Mode ---Standard Deviation 26.18Variance 685.23Skewness 0.92Kurtosis 3.76Coefficient of Variability 0.56Range Minimum 2.04Range Maximum 200.81Range Width 198.77Mean Standard Error 0.12

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.006

.011

.017

.022

0

275

550

825

1100

0.00 30.00 60.00 90.00 120.00

50,000 Trials 580 Outliers

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields

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37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 2.04

95% 13.1190% 17.0785% 20.2980% 23.2975% 26.0570% 28.9965% 31.9560% 34.8755% 38.0450% 41.3545% 44.7640% 48.6135% 52.5930% 56.9725% 61.7520% 67.3215% 74.0610% 82.94

5% 96.390% 200.81

End of Forecast

Page 12

37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Gas Field

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 450.00 BCFGEntire range is from 12.43 to 499.75 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.41

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 165.52Median 143.07Mode ---Standard Deviation 91.72Variance 8,412.28Skewness 1.19Kurtosis 4.20Coefficient of Variability 0.55Range Minimum 12.43Range Maximum 499.75Range Width 487.32Mean Standard Error 0.41

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.007

.013

.020

.027

0

335.7

671.5

1343

0.00 112.50 225.00 337.50 450.00

50,000 Trials 592 Outliers

Forecast: Largest Gas Field

Page 13

37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Gas Field (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 12.43

95% 57.6490% 70.6485% 80.8680% 89.7975% 98.4870% 106.9465% 115.7460% 124.6855% 133.6650% 143.0745% 153.3940% 164.8435% 177.5330% 191.9725% 209.5820% 230.2715% 256.8910% 295.65

5% 359.190% 499.75

End of Forecast

Page 14

37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Assumptions

Assumption: Number of Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 10Likeliest 15Maximum 140

Selected range is from 10 to 140Mean value in simulation was 55

Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields

Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 8.90 9.9Standard Deviation 17.67 17.67

Selected range is from 0.00 to 199.00 1.00 to 200.00Mean value in simulation was 8.50 9.5

10 43 75 108 140

Number of Oil Fields

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37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields (cont'd)

Assumption: GOR in Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 1,100.00Likeliest 2,200.00Maximum 3,300.00

Selected range is from 1,100.00 to 3,300.00Mean value in simulation was 2,195.92

0.09 44.47 88.84 133.22 177.60

Sizes of Oil Fields

1,100.00 1,650.00 2,200.00 2,750.00 3,300.00

GOR in Oil Fields

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37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: LGR in Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 30.00Likeliest 60.00Maximum 90.00

Selected range is from 30.00 to 90.00Mean value in simulation was 60.06

Assumption: Number of Gas Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 5Likeliest 17Maximum 75

Selected range is from 5 to 75Mean value in simulation was 32

30.00 45.00 60.00 75.00 90.00

LGR in Oil Fields

Page 17

37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: Number of Gas Fields (cont'd)

Assumption: Sizes of Gas Fields

Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 27.22 33.22Standard Deviation 45.39 45.39

Selected range is from 0.00 to 494.00 6.00 to 500.00Mean value in simulation was 26.32 32.32

5 23 40 58 75

Number of Gas Fields

0.44 111.65 222.87 334.08 445.30

Sizes of Gas Fields

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37020102Balingian

Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: LGR in Gas Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 22.00Likeliest 44.00Maximum 66.00

Selected range is from 22.00 to 66.00Mean value in simulation was 43.95

End of Assumptions

Simulation started on 8/23/99 at 9:01:38Simulation stopped on 8/23/99 at 9:54:05

22.00 33.00 44.00 55.00 66.00

LGR in Gas Fields

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