terek-sunzha subsalt jurassic, assessment unit …...undiscovered resources largest undiscovered...

Undiscovered Resources Largest Undiscovered Field

MFS Prob. Oil (MMBO)

(0-1) F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean

Oil Fields 20 0 264 633 283 0 1,291 3,270 1,413 0 77 198 85 48 96 219 109

Gas Fields 120 0 10,488 18,245 10,051 0 620 1,139 603 910 1,804 4,110 2,054

Total 0.85 0 264 633 283 0 11,779 21,516 11,464 0 697 1,337 688

0.85

Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic, Assessment Unit 11090102Assessment Results Summary

[MMBO, million barrels of oil. BCFG, billion cubic feet of gas. MMBNGL, million barrels of natural gas liquids. MFS, minimum field size assessed (MMBO or BCFG). Prob., probability (including both geologic and accessibility probabilities) of at least one field equal to or greater than the MFS. Results shown are fully risked estimates. For gas fields, all liquids are included under the NGL (natural gas liquids) category. F95 represents a 95 percent chance of at least the amount tabulated. Other fractiles are defined similarly. Fractiles are additive under the assumption of perfect

positive correlation. Shading indicates not applicable]

Field Type Gas (BCFG) NGL (MMBNGL) (MMBO or BCFG)

11090102Terek-Sunzha Subsalt Jurassic

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 800.00 MMBOEntire range is from 50.91 to 1,263.33 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.76

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 332.18Median 302.70Mode ---Standard Deviation 170.83Variance 29,182.80Skewness 0.80Kurtosis 3.45Coefficient of Variability 0.51Range Minimum 50.91Range Maximum 1,263.33Range Width 1,212.42Mean Standard Error 0.76

Frequency Chart

MMBO

.000

.005

.010

.015

.020

0

254.2

508.5

762.7

1017

0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00

50,000 Trials 541 Outliers

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields

Page 1


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBO100% 50.9195% 109.0190% 135.5185% 156.7380% 177.3275% 197.8470% 218.0265% 238.2060% 259.0555% 280.3350% 302.7045% 326.2840% 352.1335% 377.9130% 407.9525% 439.8820% 475.2415% 517.4010% 570.635% 651.270% 1,263.33

End of Forecast

Page 2


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 4,500.00 BCFGEntire range is from 177.85 to 7,290.16 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 4.05

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 1,659.55Median 1,483.37Mode ---Standard Deviation 906.25Variance 821,281.29Skewness 0.99Kurtosis 4.10Coefficient of Variability 0.55Range Minimum 177.85Range Maximum 7,290.16Range Width 7,112.32Mean Standard Error 4.05

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.006

.012

.018

.024

0

294.5

589

883.5

1178

0.00 1,125.00 2,250.00 3,375.00 4,500.00


Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields

Page 3


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 177.8595% 516.4190% 648.0585% 760.2680% 862.9275% 962.8270% 1,064.3465% 1,161.8160% 1,264.4155% 1,373.0650% 1,483.3745% 1,604.1840% 1,730.6335% 1,870.3130% 2,021.1625% 2,188.3220% 2,375.7015% 2,611.1810% 2,913.285% 3,374.980% 7,290.16

End of Forecast

Page 4


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 250.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 9.28 to 476.14 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.25

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 99.58Median 88.65Mode ---Standard Deviation 55.00Variance 3,025.16Skewness 1.03Kurtosis 4.27Coefficient of Variability 0.55Range Minimum 9.28Range Maximum 476.14Range Width 466.85Mean Standard Error 0.25

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.005

.011

.016

.022

0

270.7

541.5

812.2

1083

0.00 62.50 125.00 187.50 250.00


Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields

Page 5


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 9.2895% 30.7490% 38.6685% 45.3080% 51.5575% 57.5970% 63.3965% 69.3060% 75.4655% 81.9450% 88.6545% 95.9440% 103.6135% 111.9430% 121.1225% 131.0420% 142.6215% 156.8910% 175.465% 203.950% 476.14

End of Forecast

Page 6


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Oil Field

Summary:Display range is from 25.00 to 275.00 MMBOEntire range is from 25.78 to 399.75 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.25

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 109.43Median 95.91Mode ---Standard Deviation 55.29Variance 3,056.82Skewness 1.66Kurtosis 6.68Coefficient of Variability 0.51Range Minimum 25.78Range Maximum 399.75Range Width 373.97Mean Standard Error 0.25

Frequency Chart

MMBO

.000

.007

.014

.020

.027

0

339

678

1356

25.00 87.50 150.00 212.50 275.00


Forecast: Largest Oil Field

Page 7


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Oil Field (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBO100% 25.7895% 48.1090% 55.5885% 61.3480% 66.3475% 71.1570% 76.0265% 80.7560% 85.6755% 90.5550% 95.9145% 101.5240% 107.7335% 114.7630% 122.5825% 131.9220% 143.4815% 158.3010% 180.455% 219.030% 399.75

End of Forecast

Page 8


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 2,500.00 to 22,500.00 BCFGEntire range is from 3,390.48 to 31,801.28 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 16.77

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 11,815.08Median 11,331.74Mode ---Standard Deviation 3,749.46Variance 14,058,425.53Skewness 0.65Kurtosis 3.29Coefficient of Variability 0.32Range Minimum 3,390.48Range Maximum 31,801.28Range Width 28,410.80Mean Standard Error 16.77

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.005

.011

.016

.022

0

271.5

543

814.5

1086

2,500.00 7,500.00 12,500.00 17,500.00 22,500.00


Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields

Page 9


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 3,390.4895% 6,569.4390% 7,365.8985% 7,956.5980% 8,466.3675% 8,950.8970% 9,435.0265% 9,911.1160% 10,379.6855% 10,844.9650% 11,331.7445% 11,846.5240% 12,375.8335% 12,923.3130% 13,504.5625% 14,194.1120% 14,945.5415% 15,814.6610% 16,955.225% 18,656.530% 31,801.28

End of Forecast

Page 10


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 1,400.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 181.92 to 2,185.79 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 1.10

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 708.87Median 673.18Mode ---Standard Deviation 246.65Variance 60,836.06Skewness 0.79Kurtosis 3.71Coefficient of Variability 0.35Range Minimum 181.92Range Maximum 2,185.79Range Width 2,003.87Mean Standard Error 1.10

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.006

.012

.018

.025

0

306.2

612.5

918.7

1225

0.00 350.00 700.00 1,050.00 1,400.00


Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields

Page 11


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 181.9295% 373.5890% 423.1385% 460.4680% 492.1375% 524.1170% 553.7965% 582.6660% 612.5955% 642.9150% 673.1845% 705.3740% 739.1435% 774.2730% 812.8925% 856.8520% 905.6515% 964.1810% 1,044.515% 1,166.110% 2,185.79

End of Forecast

Page 12


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Gas Field


Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 2,053.58Median 1,804.24Mode ---Standard Deviation 993.79Variance 987,608.67Skewness 1.30Kurtosis 4.69Coefficient of Variability 0.48Range Minimum 383.01Range Maximum 5,998.42Range Width 5,615.40Mean Standard Error 4.44

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.007

.014

.022

.029

0

359.5

719

1438

0.00 1,250.00 2,500.00 3,750.00 5,000.00


Forecast: Largest Gas Field

Page 13


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Gas Field (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 383.0195% 910.3190% 1,048.8685% 1,153.4880% 1,248.8475% 1,337.2970% 1,425.3265% 1,514.2260% 1,606.8955% 1,702.0950% 1,804.2445% 1,913.1040% 2,037.2635% 2,173.6930% 2,324.8125% 2,510.4920% 2,735.9915% 3,023.6910% 3,435.225% 4,109.650% 5,998.42

End of Forecast

Page 14


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked Oil in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 800.00 MMBOEntire range is from 0.00 to 1,263.33 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.88

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 282.76Median 264.45Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 197.00Variance 38,810.44Skewness 0.50Kurtosis 2.98Coefficient of Variability 0.70Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 1,263.33Range Width 1,263.33Mean Standard Error 0.88

Frequency Chart

MMBO

.000

.037

.074

.111

.148

0

7422

0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00


Forecast: G-Risked Oil in Oil Fields

Page 15


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked Oil in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBO100% 0.0095% 0.0090% 0.0085% 60.2080% 115.0375% 143.6070% 168.3365% 192.4560% 216.3355% 239.7550% 264.4545% 289.2140% 316.1635% 345.8430% 376.4425% 411.6820% 449.8815% 494.4110% 550.945% 633.440% 1,263.33

End of Forecast

Page 16


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Oil Fields


Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 1,412.86Median 1,290.64Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 1,023.35Variance 1,047,240.06Skewness 0.68Kurtosis 3.44Coefficient of Variability 0.72Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 7,250.17Range Width 7,250.17Mean Standard Error 4.58

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.037

.074

.111

.148

0

7422

0.00 1,125.00 2,250.00 3,375.00 4,500.00


Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Oil Fields

Page 17


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 0.0095% 0.0090% 0.0085% 267.5780% 546.6675% 691.4170% 818.6065% 934.1460% 1,053.2555% 1,168.7450% 1,290.6445% 1,418.6640% 1,553.7335% 1,701.3230% 1,863.3325% 2,040.2220% 2,245.0215% 2,482.8410% 2,801.985% 3,270.480% 7,250.17

End of Forecast

Page 18


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 250.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 0.00 to 476.14 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.28

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 84.77Median 77.04Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 61.86Variance 3,826.22Skewness 0.72Kurtosis 3.56Coefficient of Variability 0.73Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 476.14Range Width 476.14Mean Standard Error 0.28

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.037

.074

.111

.148

0

7422

0.00 62.50 125.00 187.50 250.00


Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Oil Fields

Page 19


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 0.0095% 0.0090% 0.0085% 16.0180% 32.4275% 41.1870% 48.7765% 56.0560% 62.8355% 69.7350% 77.0445% 84.8140% 92.9135% 102.0430% 111.5625% 122.2320% 134.2415% 149.2410% 168.395% 197.680% 476.14

End of Forecast

Page 20


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Gas Fields


Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 10,051.15Median 10,488.11Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 5,434.48Variance 29,533,556.90Skewness -0.34Kurtosis 2.86Coefficient of Variability 0.54Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 31,801.28Range Width 31,801.28Mean Standard Error 24.30

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.037

.074

.111

.148

0

7422

0.00 6,250.00 12,500.00 18,750.00 25,000.00


Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Gas Fields

Page 21


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked Gas in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 0.0095% 0.0090% 0.0085% 4,693.5780% 6,772.0875% 7,608.2470% 8,249.6065% 8,812.3560% 9,375.8755% 9,933.0550% 10,488.1145% 11,044.1040% 11,634.1235% 12,245.6730% 12,879.4725% 13,581.1820% 14,414.7115% 15,325.9210% 16,499.305% 18,245.170% 31,801.28

End of Forecast

Page 22


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 1,500.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 0.00 to 2,185.79 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 1.52

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 603.30Median 619.81Mode 0.00Standard Deviation 339.26Variance 115,095.24Skewness -0.13Kurtosis 2.95Coefficient of Variability 0.56Range Minimum 0.00Range Maximum 2,185.79Range Width 2,185.79Mean Standard Error 1.52

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.037

.074

.111

.148

0

7422

0.00 375.00 750.00 1,125.00 1,500.00


Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Gas Fields

Page 23


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: G-Risked NGL in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 0.0095% 0.0090% 0.0085% 253.3680% 386.3175% 438.5670% 478.4865% 515.8860% 550.9555% 584.7050% 619.8145% 654.6640% 692.1035% 730.2130% 771.1325% 817.6520% 869.5215% 931.4210% 1,014.055% 1,139.470% 2,185.79

End of Forecast

Page 24


Monte Carlo Results

Assumptions

Assumption: Number of Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 2Likeliest 2Maximum 12

Selected range is from 2 to 12Mean value in simulation was 5

Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields

Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 42.05 62.05Standard Deviation 41.29 41.29

Selected range is from 0.00 to 380.00 20.00 to 400.00Mean value in simulation was 41.55 61.55

2 5 7 10 12

Number of Oil Fields

Page 25


Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields (cont'd)

Assumption: GOR in Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 3,000.00Likeliest 5,000.00Maximum 7,000.00

Selected range is from 3,000.00 to 7,000.00Mean value in simulation was 4,996.89

2.55 90.14 177.73 265.32 352.91

Sizes of Oil Fields

3,000.00 4,000.00 5,000.00 6,000.00 7,000.00

GOR in Oil Fields

Page 26


Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: LGR in Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 50.00Likeliest 60.00Maximum 70.00

Selected range is from 50.00 to 70.00Mean value in simulation was 59.99

Assumption: Number of Gas Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 12Likeliest 15Maximum 35

Selected range is from 12 to 35Mean value in simulation was 21

50.00 55.00 60.00 65.00 70.00

LGR in Oil Fields

Page 27


Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: Number of Gas Fields (cont'd)

Assumption: Sizes of Gas Fields

Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 454.95 574.95Standard Deviation 582.62 582.62

Selected range is from 0.00 to 5,880.00 120.00 to 6,000.00Mean value in simulation was 445.51 565.51

12 18 24 29 35

Number of Gas Fields

14.57 1,356.19 2,697.80 4,039.42 5,381.04

Sizes of Gas Fields

Page 28


Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: LGR in Gas Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 40.00Likeliest 60.00Maximum 80.00

Selected range is from 40.00 to 80.00Mean value in simulation was 60.00

End of Assumptions

Simulation started on 12/8/98 at 8:30:09Simulation stopped on 12/8/98 at 9:55:32

40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00

LGR in Gas Fields

Page 29

terek-sunzha subsalt jurassic, assessment unit …...undiscovered resources largest undiscovered...

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