is china an outlier?
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7
China’s Urbanization in the International Context
Is China an Outlier?
Jinhua ZhaoDepartment of Urban Studies and Planning, MIT
Why do we care about China?
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/NPP/news/earth-at-night.html#.UicfGGSgm3U
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/NPP/news/earth-at-night.html#.UicfGGSgm3U
7
8
Theory of Behavior Choice
9
Perceptions
Preferences
Process Choices
Memory
Information
Reality
Time and Money
Constraints
Experiences
History (space and time)
7
China’s Urbanization Immense, Rapid and Out of Sync
China Hype and China Bashing
• GDP: 9.5% per year for 30 years
• Urbanize 370m people without slum
• Raise 500 millions of people out of poor
• Road, HSR, infrastructure and housing
• Biggest CO2 emitter
• Severe pollutions
• Political reform
• Hukou system
• Land based finance
• Inequality – urban – rural; east – west – from one extreme to another
extreme
11
The old buildings under the high-rises are destined for demolition in the near future. Justin Jin for The New York Times
Visitors from the countryside amid a giant project under construction in Chongqing. In southwestern China, away from the coast, it is the engine of China’s inland economic development.
Justin Jin for The New York Times
Minxin Jiayuan is a flagship low-income housing project in Chongqing. Vast sums of money will be needed to pay for schooling, health care and retirement programs for the now landless farmers.
Justin Jin for The New York Times
Li Rui, 60, scavenged his former village for building materials in Liaocheng. Mr. Li was a farmer until three years ago, when the local government razed his village for an urban development zone.
Justin Jin for The New York Times
A rural migrant in a garment factory on the outskirts of Chongqing. Skeptics say the government’s headlong rush to urbanize is driven by a vision of modernity that has failed elsewhere.
Justin Jin for The New York Times
UrbanizationAnything good about China?Anything bad about China?
Question #1
Land ReformHousing market
High Speed Rail
Urban Finance
Cultural Heritage
Beijing Smog
Real Estate Development
Big Data
Spatial Equity
Urban Form
Aging SocietyMigrant workers
Car Love Affair
Infrastructure
Affordable housing
Urban vs. Region
Governance
Urban Agglomeration
Energy Efficiency
Connections
Immense Rapid
Out of Sync
Urbanization in China
Urban
190m
1980
Rural 863m
Urban
690m
2011
Rural 656m
Natural Growth
Natural Growth
~350m
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010
1.05 Billion18%
1.35 Billion51%
Urban
~1,000m
Rural ~500m
2040
Natural Growth
Natural Growth
~350m
1.5 Billion67%
21
1990
2010
Shanghai
Rebuild all American cities in 30 years
• infrastructure
• services
• institutions
• …
Immense Rapid
Out of Sync
What do we mean by “urbanization”?
Question #2
Liyan Xu and Jinhua Zhao
Multiple InterpretationsBuilt environment
Administration
Economy
Welfare
Lifestyle
Political
Cultural
Noosphere
Source: Dewey (1960): 40 key words in definitions of urbanism by 18 authors
TheTypologyofUrbanDefinitionMethods(inWUP)
• Differentcountrieshaveverydifferentdefinitionsof“urban”.– Administrative(118/231instances)
• “Designatedurbanareas”:China,Brazil
– Demographic(107/231instances)• Population/density:US,Canada,India
– Economic(33/231instances)• Employmentstructure:Russia,Japan
– FunctionalUrban(43/231instances)• Physical(e.g.infrastructureconditions:India,Indonesia,Philippines;about30instances)• Social(e.g.publicserviceconditions:Honduras,Cambodia;about10instances)• Cultural(e.g.“senseofcommunity”:Bangladesh;lessthan10instances)
The Typology of Urban Definition Methods
Urban Definition Methods and Income Levels of Countries across the World (2010) Source: UN 2011; World Bank 2011
MeasurementIssuesoftheUrbanConcept:Inter-CountryDifferencesinUrbanDefinitionMethods
Thepopulationthresholdforanurbanizedarea:• UnitedStates:2,500• UnitedKingdom:10,000• Japan:50,000• Norway:200
Country Urbanization
Level(2010)
Administrative Demographic Physical Economic Social
Population Population
DensityBrazil 84% 1 UnitedStates 81% 1 1 Mexico 78% 1 Cuba 77% 1 1 1Russia 74% 1 1 1 China 49% 1 1 1 1 1 India 31% 1 1 1 1 Afghanistan 25% 1 Ethiopia 17% 1
Source: UN 2011
China’s Urbanization is >70% if measured by the US standard
“Noosphere”
Sphere of Human Thoughtsboth at the top and at the bottom
Measurement
Are different aspects of urbanization developing in
harmony?
Question #3
Liyan Xu and Jinhua Zhao
AMulti-dimensionalMeasurementSystemforUrbanizationConditions
DimensionofUrbanCharacteristics ProxyforUrbanizationLevels
SpecificIndicatorsforUrbanizationLevels
Demographic DegreeofpopulationconcentrationPercentageofpopulationlivinginsettlementsofacertainscaleandabove
EconomicSignificanceofnon-agricultureemployment
Percentageofnon-agricultureemployment
PhysicalConditionsofphysicalinfrastructureprovision Percentageofroadspaved
Social ConditionsofpublicserviceprovisionPercentageofpopulationcoveredbyurban-qualityhealthcareservice
Cultural Maturityofcivilsociety TheFHScore
AdministrativeNotadimensionofurbancharacteristics;Introducedasaframeofreferenceforotherindicators
EmpiricalTests–TheMulti-dimensionalConditionsofUrbanization
EmpiricalTests–TheDivergentPathsofUrbanization:ChinaandIndia
Tensions
People vs. land
Economy vs. environment
Financing vs. urban form
Locals vs. migrants
Given this dys-synchronization, what should be our policy priority?
Question #4
Urbanization in China
Urban
190m
1980
Rural 863m
Urban
690m
2011
Rural 656m
Natural Growth
Natural Growth
~350m
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Urbanization Prospects, the 2009 Revision. New York 2010
1.05 Billion18%
1.35 Billion51%
Urban
~1,000m
Rural ~500m
2040
Natural Growth
Natural Growth
~350m
1.5 Billion67%
Is China Really Special?
Didn’t NYC grow as fast in the late 19th century?
Question #5
7
China’s Urbanization in the International Context
Is China an Outlier?
Is China Really Special?
• Level• Rate of Change
• Relationship with GDP• Trajectory
Level
World Urbanization Level
Urbanization rate: percentage of population living in urban areas (as defined by the country). Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Urbanized_population_2006.png
0.00#
10.00#
20.00#
30.00#
40.00#
50.00#
60.00#
Urbaniza
tionLevel/%
Year
Current# Official#Figures First#(1953)#and#Second#(1964)#Census Third#Census#(1982)Fourth#Census#(1990) Fifth#Census#(2000) Sixth#Census#(2010)From#Sixth#Census#(2010D)
China‘s Official Urbanization Statistics (1949-2013). Source: China Statistics Yearbook, 1983, 1991, 2001, 2012; ChinaCompendium of Statistics 1949-2008
Liyan Xu and Jinhua Zhao
Speed
35
1990
2010
Shanghai
36
1821
1845
Lowell, MA
37
1990
2010
Dubai
Urbanization and Economic Development
Urbanization and Economic Development
Source: Liyan Xu, calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
Trajectory
Urbanization Trajectories
Source: Liyan Xu calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
1800$1810$1820$1830$1840$
1850$1860$ 1870$
1880$
1890$1900$ 1910$
1920$1930$1940$
1950$1960$
1970$1980$
1990$2000$ 2010$
R²$=$0.66121$
2$
2.5$
3$
3.5$
4$
4.5$
5$
0$ 10$ 20$ 30$ 40$ 50$ 60$ 70$ 80$ 90$ 100$
Lg(G
DP'per'Cap
ita) 2
010'Dollars'($
)
Urbanization'Rate/%
World,'2010'with'Urbanization'Trajectories'of'Various'Countries'
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)$ USA$1800?2010$ Linear$Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization$Rate$
Urbanization Trajectories
Source: Liyan Xu calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
1800$1810$1820$1830$1840$
1850$1860$ 1870$
1880$
1890$1900$ 1910$
1920$1930$1940$
1950$1960$
1970$1980$
1990$2000$ 2010$
R²$=$0.66121$
2$
2.5$
3$
3.5$
4$
4.5$
5$
0$ 10$ 20$ 30$ 40$ 50$ 60$ 70$ 80$ 90$ 100$
Lg(G
DP'per'Cap
ita) 2
010'Dollars'($
)
Urbanization'Rate/%
World,'2010'with'Urbanization'Trajectories'of'Various'Countries'
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)$ USA$1800?2010$ UK$1830?2010$ Japan$1920?2010$ Linear$Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization$Rate$
Urbanization Trajectories
Source: Liyan Xu calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
R²#=#0.66121#
2#
2.5#
3#
3.5#
4#
4.5#
5#
0# 10# 20# 30# 40# 50# 60# 70# 80# 90# 100#
Lg(G
DP'per'Cap
ita) 2
010'Dollars'($
)
Urbanization'Rate/%
World,'2010'with'Urbanization'Trajectories'of'Various'Countries'
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)# Annotations# India#1950E2010# Brazil#1960E2010# South#Korea#1960E2010# Ghana#1960E2010# Dem.Rep.Congo#1960E2010# Linear#Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization#Rate#
Urbanization Trajectories
R²#=#0.66121#
2#
2.5#
3#
3.5#
4#
4.5#
5#
0# 10# 20# 30# 40# 50# 60# 70# 80# 90# 100#
Lg(G
DP'per'Cap
ita) 2
010'Dollars'($
)
Urbanization'Rate/%
World,'2010'with'Urbanization'Trajectories'of'Various'Countries'
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)# Annotations# China#1952E2012# Linear#Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization#Rate#
Source: Liyan Xu calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
Urbanization Trajectories
1800$1810$1820$1830$1840$
1850$1860$ 1870$
1880$
1890$1900$ 1910$
1920$1930$1940$
1950$1960$
1970$1980$
1990$2000$ 2010$
R²$=$0.66121$
2$
2.5$
3$
3.5$
4$
4.5$
5$
0$ 10$ 20$ 30$ 40$ 50$ 60$ 70$ 80$ 90$ 100$
Lg(G
DP'per'Cap
ita) 2
010'Dollars'($
)
Urbanization'Rate/%
World,'2010'with'Urbanization'Trajectories'of'Various'Countries'
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)$ Annotations$ USA$1800E2010$ UK$1830E2010$ Japan$1920E2010$
India$1950E2010$ Brazil$1960E2010$ South$Korea$1960E2010$ China,$Taiwan$1952E2012$ Ghana$1960E2010$
Dem.Rep.Congo$1960E2010$ China$1952E2012$ Linear$Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization$Rate$
Source: Liyan Xu calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
China’s Urbanization Follows the Norm
• Level• Rate of Change
• Relationship with GDP• Trajectory
5940
Global Urbanization Trend
2011: 1.35 billion; 51.3% in urban areas
How is China Unique?
• Trajectory
• Internal Complexity
• Scale and Density
• Institutions
Trajectory
Source: Own calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank GDP per capita data 2012.
OECD Countries Urbanization
Australia!Austria! Belgium!Canada!
Chile!
Czech Republic!
Denmark!
Estonia!
Finland!France!Germany!
Greece!
Hungary!
Ireland!
Israel!Italy!
Japan!
Mexico!
Netherlands!
New Zealand!
Norway!
Poland!
Portugal! Republic of Korea!
Slovakia!
Slovenia!
Spain!
Sweden!
Switzerland!
Turkey!
United Kingdom!
United States of America!
Australia!
Austria!
Belgium!
Canada!
Chile!
Denmark!
Finland!
France!
Greece!
Ireland!
Israel!
Italy!
Japan!
Mexico!
Netherlands!
New Zealand!
Norway!
Portugal!
Republic of Korea!
Spain!
Sweden!
Switzerland!
Turkey!
United Kingdom!
United States of America!
R² = 0.66121!
2!
2.5!
3!
3.5!
4!
4.5!
5!
10! 20! 30! 40! 50! 60! 70! 80! 90! 100!
Lg(G
DP
per
Cap
ita)/2
010
Dol
lars
($)
Urbanization Rate/%
OECD Countries, 1960 - 2010!
PPP per Capita_2010_CD_WB! OECD Countries 2010! OECD Countries 1960! Linear Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization Rate!
OECD Country Urbanization
Manhattan; Suburb (Harry Potter’s aunt’s house in suburban London)
Pseudo Urbanization: Latin America
Source: Own calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank GDP per capita data 2012.
Argentina!
Bolivia (Plurinational State of)!
Brazil!Chile!
Colombia!
Costa Rica!
Ecuador!El Salvador!
Guatemala!
Honduras!
Mexico!
Nicaragua!
Panama!
Paraguay!
Peru!
Uruguay!Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)!
Argentina!
Bolivia (Plurinational State of)!
Brazil!
Chile!
Colombia!
Costa Rica!
Ecuador! El Salvador!
Guatemala!
Honduras!
Mexico!
Nicaragua!
Panama!
Peru!
Uruguay!
Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of)!
R² = 0.66121!
2!
2.5!
3!
3.5!
4!
4.5!
5!
10! 20! 30! 40! 50! 60! 70! 80! 90! 100!
Lg(G
DP
per
Capi
ta)/
2010
Dol
lars
($)
Urbanization Rate/%
Continental Latin America, 1960 - 2010!
PPP per Capita_2010_CD_WB! Continental Latin America 2010! Continental Latin America 1960! Linear Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization Rate!
Over-urbanization/Pseudo urbanization
Rio: skyscrapers and favelas (screenshot from Fast and Furious 5 and Rio, the 2011 carton movie featuring two blue macaws)
Under-urbanization: Former USSR
Soviet Baku
Over-urbanization and Economic Stagnation
Source: Own calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank GDP per capita data 2012.
Angola!
Benin!
Botswana!
Burkina Faso!
Burundi!
Cameroon!
Central African Republic!
Chad!
Congo!
Côte d'Ivoire!
Democratic Republic of the Congo!
Equatorial Guinea!
Ethiopia!
Gabon!
Gambia!
Ghana!
Guinea!
Kenya!
Lesotho!
Liberia!
Madagascar!Malawi!
Mali!
Mauritania!
Mozambique!
Namibia!
Niger!
Nigeria!
Rwanda!
Senegal!
Sierra Leone!
Somalia!
South Africa!
Swaziland!
Togo!Uganda! United Republic of Tanzania!
Zambia!
Zimbabwe!Benin!
Botswana!
Burkina Faso!Burundi!
Cameroon!
Central African Republic!
Chad!
Congo!
Côte d'Ivoire!
Democratic Republic of the Congo!
Gabon!
Ghana!
Kenya!
Lesotho!
Liberia!
Madagascar!
Malawi!
Mauritania!
Niger!
Nigeria!
Rwanda!
Senegal!
Somalia!
South Africa!
Swaziland!
Togo!
Uganda!
Zambia!
Zimbabwe!
R² = 0.66121!
2!
2.5!
3!
3.5!
4!
4.5!
5!
0! 10! 20! 30! 40! 50! 60! 70! 80! 90! 100!
Lg(G
DP
per
Capi
ta)/
2010
Dol
lars
($)
Urbanization Rate/%
Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960 - 2010!
PPP per Capita_2010_CD_WB! Sub-Saharan Africa 2010! Sub-Saharan Africa 1960! Linear Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization Rate!
Over-urbanization at a Low Development Level
Kibera, Nairobi‘s largest slum
Urbanization Trajectories
Source: Own calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
1800$1810$1820$1830$1840$
1850$1860$ 1870$
1880$
1890$1900$ 1910$
1920$1930$1940$
1950$1960$
1970$1980$
1990$2000$ 2010$
R²$=$0.66121$
2$
2.5$
3$
3.5$
4$
4.5$
5$
0$ 10$ 20$ 30$ 40$ 50$ 60$ 70$ 80$ 90$ 100$
Lg(G
DP'per'Cap
ita) 2
010'Dollars'($
)
Urbanization'Rate/%
World,'2010'with'Urbanization'Trajectories'of'Various'Countries'
Lg(GDPpc_2010_WB)$ Annotations$ USA$1800E2010$ UK$1830E2010$ Japan$1920E2010$
India$1950E2010$ Brazil$1960E2010$ South$Korea$1960E2010$ China,$Taiwan$1952E2012$ Ghana$1960E2010$
Dem.Rep.Congo$1960E2010$ China$1952E2012$ Linear$Lg(pcGDP)~Urbanization$Rate$
Regional Disparity
Urbanization Rate at the Province Level
Source: Own calculation based on China’s 6th National Census data
Urbanization Rate at the Prefecture Level
Source: Own calculation based on China’s 6th National Census data
Internal Complexities
Source: Own calculation based on the UN World Urbanization Perspective 2012, World Bank PPP per capita data 2012.
• Despite similar urbanization level, rural Vermont(right) is different from rural Guizhou(left).
• Choice of Lifestyle vs. Quality of Life
Unbalanced Urbanization
Scale and Density
Institutions
• Hukou
• Land (and public finance)
1
A Dualistic System
Urban Rural
Danwei Collective
Invisible Wall
Made in China
Wealth from Urbanization
Distance from city center
a
b b’
Land Rent Appreciation
Land
Ren
t
Splitting the Cake
Distance from city center
Land
Ren
t
a
b b’
Compensation: to land owners
Profit: to the developer
Tax: to the city government
Rural
Urban MigrantWorkers
8
UrbanPermanentResidents
III
II
II
II
3
4
II
5
2.a
II
2.b
II III
6
7.a
II III
I
10
1
IIII
7.b
II
9
Liyan Xu
Is China an Outlier?
• Trajectory
• Internal Complexity
• Scale and Density
• Institutions
• Level• Rate of Change
• Relationship with GDP• Trajectory
No Yes
Context of China’s Urbanization
• Marketization: Command à Market
• Decentralization: Central à Local
• Industrialization: Agricultural à Manufacture
• Migration: Rural à Urban Based Society
• Globalization: Autarky à Open Regime
89
Statusquo
• Quality
• Consumption
• People centered
• Small scale
• Cooperative
• Participation
• Quantity
• Production
• Infrastructure centered
• Large scale
• Competitive
• Top down
China’s transition
72
Direction/Ideal
Why do we care about China?
Why do we care about China?
• Intellectual curiosity
• Altruism
• Interconnected world (abstract / tangible)
• Exporter of knowledge?
• Technology implementation
• Policy transfer
• New phenomena and new experience
Jan 28, 2012
It is the first time since we began our detailed coverage of the United States in 1942 that we have singled out a country in this way.
The principal reason is that China is now an economic superpower and is fast becoming a military force capable of unsettling America.
But our interest in China lies also in its politics: it is governed by a system that is out of step with global norms.
In ways that were never true of post-war Japan and may never be true of India, China will both fascinate and agitate the rest of the world for a long time to come.
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