joint research centre · 2017-07-06 · asap goal • provide (to non-remote sensing experts)...
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ASAP - Anomaly hot Spots of Agricultural Production, a new early warning decision support system
Felix Rembold, Michele Meroni, Ferdinando Urbano Joint Research Centre of European Commission
Food Security Unit
MultiTemp 2017
• Growing number of online VISUALIZATION tools make available remote sensing and agro-meteo data to analysts
But mostly remain pixel-based and do not provide explicit early warning messages about agricultural problems
Why a new system?
ASAP goal • Provide (to non-remote sensing experts) timely warnings and short narrative
in case of agricultural problems
ASAP 2-steps workflow 1. Automatic warning classification. Global, every 10 days at first sub-national level
2. Analysts assessment of triggered warnings to validate and describe hotspots with short narratives. >80 countries of interest, every month at national level
The final selection of hot spot countries depends on expert judgement, supported by the warning classification system and auxiliary information.
ASAP customers • EC and EU delegations • GEOGLAM CM4EW users • Other multi-agency food security assessments
(IPC, Cadre Harmonisé) • Agricultural experts in general
Goal: automatically apply a standardized analysis of RFE & NDVI to be proposed to the analyst
Globally
Targeting cropland and rangelands (where and when they grow)
Step 1. Warning classification scheme
Warning classification, WHERE Level of aggregation: GAUL1
Targets: cropland and rangeland layers (anomalies occurring elsewhere are neglected)
Focus: drought-related production deficit
Annual Climatic Water Balance (P-ET0)
█ Only NDVI
█ NDVI & RFE
Warning classification, WHEN
Update every 10 days during the average growing season period
We rely on pixel-based Land Surface Phenology, as derived from NDVI time series analysis (SPIRITS)
SOS25%
SEN75%
EOS35%
MAX
“Expansion” “Maturation” “Senescence
Classification is made only when at least 15% of the total crop/rangeland area of the GAUL is in the growing season (SOS<t<EOS)
Anomalies occurring outside this target period are neglected
Cropland Active cropsASAP unit
Warning classification, WHAT
Pixel level
Keep track of three possible anomalies (all standardised):
• Cumulative NDVI from SOS
[Z of NDVIc < -1]
• Rainfall, long period
Critical NDVI Critical SPI3
• Rainfall, short period
Critical SPI1
[Z of NDVIc > +1]
Exceptional NDVI
[3-month SPI < -1] [1-month SPI < -1]
NDVI (METOP @1 km) Precipitation (ECMWF @25 km)
(HRES analysis model & ERA-Interim)
SOS25%
SEN75%
EOS35%
MAX
Warning classification, HOW
Admin level
Look at the Area Fraction classified as “Critical”
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑥𝑥 = 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 "𝑐𝑐𝑎𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑎𝑎𝑙𝑙"𝑐𝑐𝑡𝑡𝑐𝑐𝑎𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑜 𝑎𝑎𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑝𝑝𝑐𝑐𝑥𝑥𝑎𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑎
x = SPI1, SPI3, zNDVIc
Any CAF > 25 % will trigger a warning for that admin level
Two conditions to trigger a warning: the area is subject to a severe negative anomaly & the area concerned is relevant
Retrieve the admin median progress of the season (% and phase)
“Expansion” “Maturation “
“Senescence”
Critical
ASAP unitCroplandActive crops
Warning source
(Indicator with CAF > 25%)
zNDVIc +
none
SPI1 U SPI3 U zNDVIc
zNDVIc
Warning levelby warning source and pheno-
phaseExpansion OR maturation
Senescence
Favourable conditions
Favourable conditions
- -
1- -
SPI1 1 -
SPI3 1+ -
2 4
zNDVIc & SPI1 3 -
SPI3 & SPI1 1++ -
zNDVIc & SPI3 3+ -
zNDVIc & SPI3 & SPI1 3++ -
Ranking of warning levels Admin level
The final warning level builds on: Pheno-stage & type of indicator exceeding CAF
RFE-based - Rainfall deficit possibly evolving into poor growth
NDVI-based - Evidence of poor growth
Both - Poor growth & negative prospects
Output of classification The Warning Explorer
11 June 2017
Warnings are automatically sent to analyst dashboard
Assessment made every month at country level
Only ASAP countries are covered (GEOGLAM + DG DEVCO food security priority countries)
Step 2. Analyst assessment
Analyst evaluation assisted by:
Automatically generated reports showing relevant maps and graphs
Local news by JRC Media Monitor tailored queries
Ad-hoc analysis of HR imagery (Landsat 8, Sentinel 1 and 2) in Google Earth Engine
Temporal profiles (NDVI, RFE)
Anomaly maps
Analyst assessment
Overview of past warning levels
Winter wheat area in Western cape, SA
As a result, the automatic warning at GAUL1 is promoted (or not) as:
Analyst assessment output
Minor or major hotspot at country level
Published on the ASAP main page with a short narrative and main background info
Global overview map and narrative
As a result, the automatic warning at GAUL1 is promoted (or not) as:
Analyst assessment output
Minor or major hotspot at country level
Published on the ASAP main page with a short narrative and main background info
Country reports Situation overview Detailed maps/graphs Land cover and phenology
Summary
Automatic warning classification and underlying data updated globally every 10-day on the Warning Explorer web-page mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/asap/hsds/
Every warning must be verified by the analysts (monthly) to become visible in the ASAP analyst assessment web-page mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/asap/
Downloadable summary reports are produced for all countries
Development Status
Pre-operational testing by analysts September 2016 – May 2017
Operational and public since May
Near-future improvements
Update of current crop/rangeland masks
new ASAP-GWRSI replacing SPI1
Use of the advanced NRT filtering of MODIS time-series replacing METOP
Thank you! ASAP https://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/asap/
Warning Explorer https://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/asap/hsds/
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