knowable future

The Knowable Future

Paul Schumann

UT Quest

October 29, 2002

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Topics

• Uncertain Present

• Knowable Future

• Forecasting Methods

• Future Forecast

• Summary

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Uncertain Present

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Knowable Future

• Demographic

• Sociopolitical

• Technological

• Economic

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Forecasting Methods

• Surveillance

• Trend Analysis

• Expert Opinion

• Integrative

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Future Forecast

• First Industrial Revolution (1760 - 1860)

• Second Industrial Revolution (1860 - 1950)

• Third Industrial Revolution (1950 - 2020)

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Economic Maturation of Technology

• Nonproductive (25 years)

• Counter Productive (25 years)

• Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 years)

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The Real Costs of Information Technology

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Information Technology

Source: Jeremy Greenwood, The Third Industrial Revolution

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Demographic

• Population Growth

• Generational Homogenuity

• Multiculturalism

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Population GrowthPopulation of US

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(M

illio

ns)

Actual

Projection

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Age Distribution

Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Educationin America 2000 - 2020

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Age and Violent Crime

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 & older

Age Category

Per

cen

t

Source: OJJDB Statistical Briefing Book

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Violent Crimes

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

Year

Vio

len

t C

rim

es

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics

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US Population (2000)

White71%

Black12%

American Indian1%

Asian & Pacific Islander

4%Hispanic

12%

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US Population (2020)

White63%

Black13%

American Indian1%

Asian & Pacific Islander

6%

Hispanic17%

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US Population (2100)

White40%

Black13%American Indian

1%

Asian & Pacific Islander

13%

Hispanic33%

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Sociopolitical

• Openness

• Gender Equity

• Decentralization

• Pluralism

• Paradoxical

• Non-Career Lives

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Technological

• Information– Internet

– Personal Devices

– Wireless Digital

– Open Source Wars

– New Software Applications

– Embedded Computers

• Genomics• Nanomachines

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Economic

• Growth

• Service Based

• Virtual Integration

• Glocality

• Games

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Real Gross Domestic Product

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

1929

1932

1935

1938

1941

1944

1947

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

Year

Rea

l Gro

ss D

om

esti

c P

rod

uct

(B

illio

ns)

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Nature of Work

Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Educationin America 2000 - 2020

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Summary

• Strengths

• Weaknesses

• Opportunities

• Threats

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Central Texas ChapterWorld Future Society

• Contribute to a reasoned awareness of the future and its impact on Central Texas with emphasis on the study of the future of Central Texas and assessment of findings, without advocating particular ideologies or engaging in political activities.

• Advance serious and responsible investigation and assessment of the future.

• Promote the development of methods for the study of the future.

• Increase public understanding and assessment of future-oriented studies.

• Facilitate communication and cooperation among organizations and individuals interested in studying or planning for the future.

• Learn to become a better futurist.

• Network with diverse people interested in the future.

www.glocalvantage.com/CenTexWFS/index.html

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Paul Schumann

• pauls@glocalvantage.com

• www.glocalvantage.com

• (512) 302-1935

• Glocal Vantage, Inc.

• PO Box 26947

• Austin, TX 78755-0947