laps: unique features
Post on 01-Jan-2016
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LAPS: UNIQUE FEATURES• Fine scale operational system at NWS
– Cloud permitting scale - No match within NOAA• Multiscale approach• Data assimilation at fine resolution, e.g. 1km, comparing to HRRR’s
13km data assimilation.
• First of its kind internationally– Long (20+ yrs) history of technology transfer– Many DA systems adapting LAPS cloud analysis
• Efficiency– Very fast, allows very frequent updating
• Portability and ease of use– Widely used / installed at sites within NOAA, US, Internationally
• Large user/developer community (150+ users)– Leadership in technology transfer 1
LAPS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY
• A unique fine scale cloud analysis– Showing high quality cloud forecast, specially 0-3h.
• Contribute to Solar Energy proposal for DOE– User metrics for Solar Energy– Improved methods for 0-6 hour Solar Energy forecasting
• Very fine scale data assimilation, numerical modeling, ensemble methods
– Optimal use of forecast information• Use of ensemble forecasts in operational & economic decision
making
• Many institutions approached FAB for proposals using LAPS for solar energy applications
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Global Horizontal Irradiance Analysis
+ Observations
3-Frames at 15-minute
interval
Utilizes GOES imageryand 3-D cloud analysisallowing rapid 1-3km resolution update
Solar Radiation Analysis (GHI) Verification
HWT Domain Analysis (72 hour time series)~100 Oklahoma mesonet stations.
Partly Cloudy Days
Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) Forecast
• Generated from LAPS initialized WRF model
• “Hot-Start” procedure used to help get clouds into model• Vertical Velocity / Horizontal Divergence• Temperature / Height Adjustment• Hydrometeor Assimilation• Consistent Water Vapor Fields
OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 5
GHI Forecast 0-60 minutes 10-min Time Steps
1.7km Domain ResolutionObserved Forecast
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Simulated IR Satellite Forecast
• Helps show forecast behavior of low & high clouds• Simulated VIS also available – derived from cloud amount• Developing objective cloud and solar forecast verification
Observed / 15 mins Forecast
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