large improvement in cfs prediction skill by regime dependent bias correction
Post on 19-Mar-2016
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Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction. Wilbur Y. Chen Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA. Mdl Bias = Mdl - Obs. Bias = MDL - OBS. Mdl. MDL. OBS. Obs. Model bias corrected skill. Raw fcst skill. Distinct in time-mean flows. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Large Improvement in CFS Prediction Skill by Regime Dependent
Bias Correction
Wilbur Y. ChenClimate Prediction Center
NCEP/NWS/NOAA
MDL
OBS
Bias =MDL - OBS
Mdl
Obs
Mdl Bias =Mdl - Obs
Raw fcst skill
Model bias corrected skill
Distinct in time-mean flows
Bias forWarm events
Bias for Cold events
Bias for Neutral events
Bias for warm DJFs
Bias for cold DJFs
Bias for neutral DJFs
Lead = 1 month Lead = 4 months Lead = 6 months
Conventional forecast
Verification
Improved forecast
Large improvement in AC skill by Regime Dependent Bias Correction
Regime dependent bias corrected
Conventional mdl bias corrected
Raw predictions
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