lesson 19: global climate change

Lesson 19: Global Climate Change

Amy DurayEVPP 490 003April 19, 2010

Asia’s Changing Role in Climate Change

• 3 of the top 8 emitters of man-made CO2 emissions: China, now 2nd, likely to become 1st by 2010), Japan 5th and S. Korea 8th. ( BBC News video: Why emissions are rising in China.)

• These rankings are industrial sources only and don’t consider other CO2 emitting activities common in Asia, such as burning of firewood and other biomass for domestic energy.

• Land use changes (esp. the conversion of forests) make significant contributions to CO2 global changes (such as what we see in the Philippines and Indonesia).

Effects of GCC in Asia

a. Sea-level rise:(1) Submergence of Small Islands(2) Impacts to large coastal cities

(Jakarta, Bangkok, Manila, Shanghai especially vulnerable) – 10s of Millions may be displaced.

(3) Infrastructure spending (levees, etc.) to protect cities.

(4) Increasing human vulnerability

Global Mean Sea-Level

- 17cm rise for thepast 100 yrs- Present speed ofSLR is 3.2 mm/yr.- In a long tem,collapse ofGreenland ice sheetmay induce 2-7mSLR.

(IPCC WGI AR4, 2007)

East Asia – Coastal Inundation

Southeast Asia – Costal Inundation

Asian Coastal Cities at Risk

Risk to Mega Delta RegionsVulnerability of Mega-deltas

・ Several millions more people will be flooded annually.・ Proactive and planned adaptation is necessary.

Extreme: >One million （ by 2050 ）High: 50 K to one million

Medium ： 5K to 50 K（ IPCC WGII AR4, 2007）

Increased Typhoon Activity and Intensity

Desertification

Changes in Precipitation

Changes in Hydrologic Flow

This map shows the change in run-off inferred from streamflow records worldwide between 1948 and 2004, with bluish colors indicating more streamflow and reddish colors less. Graphic: Journal of Climate, modified by UCAR

Drivers and Pressures of CO2 and GHG emissions

• Natural• Anthropogenic

Equity Issues in GCC(1) Between countries: Asia wants to ensure that their countries have the ability to achieve a certain level of economic growth and wellbeing for citizens. Despite the changes in CO2 contributions, the average American contributes 4 times the CO2 as the average Chinese. (Siddiqi, 2008)

(2) Within countries: Still a large rural-urban divide in the Developing countries of Asia, not seen in the fully developed economies of N. America and Europe. More than 100M people in Asia have no access to electricity. (Siddiqi, 2008)

(3) Intergenerational Equity: Assuring continuing availability/access for future generations. Manifests itself in CO2 emissions, natural resources consumption, and excess debt.

CO2 Emissions Per Capita

China and Global Climate Change

• China’s willingness• 2 Degree limit by 2050• 1/3 of China’s current GHG emissions

attributed to exports