leveraging farm policy history to understand biofuels and trade dynamics in the 2008 farm bill

Nadine Lehrer, Washington State University, February 2, 2009Nadine Lehrer, Washington State University, February 2, 2009

Leveraging Farm Policy History to Leveraging Farm Policy History to Understand Biofuels and Trade Understand Biofuels and Trade Dynamics in the 2008 Farm BillDynamics in the 2008 Farm Bill

Green Lands Blue Waters 2004

Why the farm bill?Why the farm bill?

www.agecon.purdue.edu/farmbill

2005-07: WTO and the farm bill2005-07: WTO and the farm bill

Agrinews 2005, 2006, 2007

2006-2008: Biofuels and the farm 2006-2008: Biofuels and the farm bill bill

Agrinews 2007

Research questions

1. How and why did the 2008 farm bill debates shift from WTO-oriented to biofuels-oriented in such a short period of time?

2. What does this shift mean for farm policy, biofuels policy, and for understanding policy processes in general?

MethodsMethods Document analysisDocument analysis Participant observation at Participant observation at

28 farm bill conferences28 farm bill conferences 56 in-depth informational 56 in-depth informational

interviewsinterviews

Groups interviewedGroups interviewed

Sustainable agriculture groupsSustainable agriculture groupsEnvironmental groupsEnvironmental groupsSocial justice groupsSocial justice groupsFoundationsFoundations

Farmer organizationsFarmer organizationsCommodity groupsCommodity groupsTrade associationsTrade associationsAgribusiness corporationsAgribusiness corporations

Lobbying firmsLobbying firmsLegislative staffLegislative staffAdministrative officesAdministrative offices

What is the farm bill?What is the farm bill?

1930s ag policy rationale1930s ag policy rationale Broadening over timeBroadening over time

Farm policy history

History of incremental changeHistory of incremental change ExceptionsExceptions

– 19331933– 19731973– 19851985– 19961996– CommonalitiesCommonalities

What would history have told us to expect from What would history have told us to expect from 2008?2008?

Policy context in ethanol-driven Policy context in ethanol-driven moment, 2006-08moment, 2006-08

[Biofuels are] important for our national security… good for the economy and the environment.

For rural America, it is the greatest opportunity for new

markets, new investment, new jobs and wealth creation in our

lifetimes.

“This was supposed to be the year that

international trade concerns would shape

the farm bill. They didn’t.

Philip Brasher, Des Moines Register 2007

My sense is the biofuels revolution

that has hit this country is the most profound change in agriculture in 200

years.Boyden Gray, USTR, 2006

“For months, Farm Bureau leaders have said they

preferred an extension of the 2002 farm bill. But… the

AFBF said it had [now] decided to unveil its vision for improving the new farm

law.” – Western Farm Press, June 2007

Tom Dorr, USDA, 2006

A shifting policy windowA shifting policy window

Of 1385 articles on the farm bill:Of 1385 articles on the farm bill:

WTO Biofuels Budget Partisanship

2005 24% 5% 59% 44%

2006 23% 19% 64% 58%

2007 9% 23% 56% 53%

Lexis Nexis, 2008

Why this shift?Why this shift? Suspension of Suspension of

WTO negotiations WTO negotiations July 2006July 2006

Congressional Congressional elections, elections, November 2006November 2006

Rising gas prices, Rising gas prices, increased interest increased interest in ethanolin ethanol

Associated budget Associated budget impactsimpacts

NASS 2008: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/AgriPric/AgriPric-02-29-2008.pdf

NationalismNationalism

Stephen Brooks/News Tribune photo 2006

NCGA, no dateNCGA 2006

Why did this matter for Why did this matter for the farm bill?the farm bill?

Timing (and history)Timing (and history) Resonance of national Resonance of national

security framessecurity frames Environmental and rural Environmental and rural

development framesdevelopment frames Few critiques of biofuelsFew critiques of biofuels Perceived consensus Perceived consensus

among interest groupsamong interest groups The 2007 energy billThe 2007 energy bill

Ed Fischer, Agri News, May 2006

What does it suggest about What does it suggest about the 2008 farm bill?the 2008 farm bill?

A WTO-driven farm bill seemed likely in A WTO-driven farm bill seemed likely in 2005-062005-06

The 2008 farm bill instead reflected a The 2008 farm bill instead reflected a biofuels-driven momentbiofuels-driven moment

This has implications for land use, This has implications for land use,

renewable energy, and farm bill reformrenewable energy, and farm bill reform It can also help us understand It can also help us understand

policy processespolicy processeswww.livingindryden.org

Land use implicationsLand use implications

2007-8 corn acreage increased almost 20%2007-8 corn acreage increased almost 20%

Cellulosic ethanol important,Cellulosic ethanol important,

but uncertain in the but uncertain in the

short-termshort-term

Decline in budget and tradeDecline in budget and trade

as drivers of commodity as drivers of commodity

policy reformpolicy reform

Adriana Telias

Future implications

for farm bill reform efforts for biofuels policies for understanding policy

What have we learned?What have we learned? Incremental change as Incremental change as

a norma norm Biofuels helped Biofuels helped

sidestep commodity sidestep commodity reform debatesreform debates

National security National security discourse as a driverdiscourse as a driver

Mixed bag of Mixed bag of implications for implications for sustainable agriculture sustainable agriculture and rural developmentand rural development

Many thanks!Many thanks!

Rachel Schurman, Dennis Becker

G. Edward Schuh, Paul Porter, Kristen Nelson

Interview participants

Colleagues, contacts, informants, supporters

NSF GRP, EPA-STAR, University of Minnesota MacArthur Program and Graduate School

Adriana Telias

Questions?Questions?