making cooperation work comcec strategy diversification of total oic imports is higher source: itc...

Trade Working Group 8th Meeting

October 6, 2016

Ankara, Turkey

Making Cooperation Work

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC

Trade OUTLOOK

2016

COMCEC STRATEGY

OUTLINE

• Trade Between the OIC Member States and the

World

• Intra-OIC Trade

• Trade Facilitation in the OIC Member States

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For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

TRADE Between the OIC and the WORLD

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For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Total OIC exports fell by 25 per cent in 2015

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Source: : IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

The total OIC exports in volume terms increased

slightly

Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

Main Factors Accounting for the Sharp Drop in

OIC Exports

• Sluggish pace of world demand growth

• Collapse in oil prices

• Falling prices for other primary commodities

• US dollars appretiation

• Ongoing political instability in the Middle East

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For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

World trade growth remained subdued after the global

crisis

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For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Source: WTO Database

Emerging Economies’ demand for imports stagnated in

2015

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For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Source: WTO

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Commodity Prices Have Been Declining since 2012

Source: IMF

(2005=100)

The price of oil fell sharply from $98.9 barrel in

2014 to $52.4 barrel in 2015

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For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Source: IMF Commodity Price Statistics

Contribution to Per cent Change in OIC Exports

(in percentage points)

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COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Source: ITC Trademap

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Share of OIC countries in global exports have

been declining since 2012

Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

Top performers as a whole accounts for 75.7

per cent of total OIC exports

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

High country concentration in extra-OIC exports

Source: ITCtrademap

(Per cent)

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Dominance of mineral fuels and oils in total OIC exports

Source: ITC

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Share of Petroleum in Total Exports, 2015

Source: UNCTADSTAT

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Share of Commodities in Total Exports, 2015

Source: UN Comtrade (*) Includes SITC Rev 3 sectors 26, 65 and 84

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Share of Food in Total Exports, 2015

Source: UNCTADSTAT

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Source: UNCTADSTAT

Manufactured products has a considerable share in

exports in some member states

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Source: UNCTADSTAT

Malaysia, Turkey, UAE and Indonesia are the largest

manufactured goods exporters of OIC

Note: Countries are ranked according to their share in total OIC manufactured goods exports

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

TOTAL OIC IMPORTS

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Total OIC imports originated mainly from

developed countries

Source: UNCTADSTAT

(Per cent

(2015)

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Product diversification of total OIC imports is higher

Source: ITC Trademap

OIC Imports, 2015

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

INTRA-OIC TRADE

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Share of intra-OIC trade peaked at 20 per cent in 2015

Source:IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Top performers in intra OIC trade in 2015

Source:IMF DOTS

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Evolution of Intra-OIC exports by top ten sectors

Source: ITC Trademap

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

20 per cent intra-OIC trade target was surpassed

by 30 Member States in 2015

Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

Member States Having the Lowest

Intra-OIC Trade Share (%)

Member States Having the Highest

Intra-OIC Trade Share (%)

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

TRADE FACILITATION

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Reducing trade costs in the OIC member

states is important to enhance both intra and

extra trade

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Border compliance costs for exports goes up to

$1375

Source: World Bank

Note: Countries are ranked according to the Trading Across Borders scores

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World

COMCEC STRATEGY Making Cooperation Work

Border compliance times vary immensely across

members

Source: World Bank

Note: Countries are ranked according to the Trading Across Borders scores

Trade Working Group Meeting

Thank You

October 6, 2016

Ankara, Turkey

Making Cooperation Work

For Building an Interdependent Islamic World COMCEC STRATEGY