map zimbabwe stakeholder workshop: key findingscenfri.org/documents/map/2015/zimbabwe/2015 12 14 map...

MAP Zimbabwe Stakeholder Workshop: Key Findings

Harare, Zimbabwe14 December, 2015

Presentation on the findings from the Making Access Possible (MAP) Diagnostic conducted in Zimbabwe

Agenda

• MAP diagnostic components

• Key findings

• Options to extend financial inclusion

Agenda

• MAP diagnostic components

• Key findings

• Options to extend financial inclusion

MAP analyses demand, supply and regulation – formal and informal

Demand Supply Regulation

• FinScope 2011 and 2014

• FinScope MSME 2013 • Consumer interviews

• Interviews• Annual reports• Product data• Mystery shopping

• Interviews• Regulatory and policy

review

Uncover discrete target markets and

needs cases

Product and provider landscape (informal and

formal)

Public policy objectives and regulatory context

Financial inclusion imperatives

Agenda

• MAP diagnostic components

• Key findings

• Options to extend financial inclusion

Domestic Population: ~7 million adults in Zimbabwe

Diaspora Population: 3.3 million Zimbabwean adults outside of Zimbabwe

MAP Zimbabwe: 7 Key findings to advance financial inclusion

Finding 1: Declining income &

employment depress use of formal financial services

MAP Zimbabwe: 7 Key findings to advance financial inclusion

Finding 1: Declining income &

employment depress use of formal financial services

Finding 2: Dutch disease undermines credit but

drives payments – weak exports, strong imports

MAP Zimbabwe: 7 Key findings to advance financial inclusion

Finding 1: Declining income &

employment depress use of formal financial services

Finding 2: Dutch disease undermines credit but

drives payments – weak exports, strong imports

MAP Zimbabwe: 7 Key findings to advance financial inclusion

Finding 3: Banks’ contribution

to financial inclusion has declined – business model changes required for banks to regain ground

Finding 4: Payments & Mobile Money

platforms now dominate financial inclusion landscape

MAP Zimbabwe: 7 Key findings to advance financial inclusion

Finding 5: Cross-border retail money

flows major growth area – fundamental for economy and households to survive

MAP Zimbabwe: 7 Key findings to advance financial inclusion

MAP Zimbabwe: 7 Key findings to advance financial inclusion

Family and friends

Finding 6: Informal financial

services soaring – communities act collectively to survive

Use formal financial services from:

Use informal financial services from:

MAP Zimbabwe: 7 Key findings to advance financial inclusion

Finding 7: Private human capital development a

priority – financial services to support education

Finding 1: Declining income &

employment depress use of formal financial services

Key Findings 1: Declining income & employment depress use of formal financial services

7.0%

1.1%

10.4%

6.0%

11.4%11.9%

10.6%

4.5%

3.2% 3.3%

-3.1%

-8.9%

-5.7%

-3.5% -3.7%

1990 1993 1996 2000 2002 2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Key Finding 1: Positive growth since 2010, but …

Source: World Bank, 2015; Zimstats 2014

23% 28%22%

56%

198%585%

35141038%

-0.5%

3.1%

3.5%3.7%

1.6%

-0.2%

Inflation

GDP Growth Rate

-17.7%

Key Finding 1: Declining incomes at low end and …

7%

63%

12% 7%

4%

4% 2% 1%

0% 0% 0%

17%

50%

13%

8%5%

2% 3% 1%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

No income US$1 -US$100

US$101 -US$200

US$201 -US$300

US$301 -US$400

US$401 -US$500

US$501 -US$1000

US$1001 -US$2000

US$2001 -US$3000

US$3001 -US$4000

US$4001and above

2014 2011

$143

*adults are 18 years old and above

70% rural

57% female

59% w/ secondary education or higher

~ 7 million adults

Demographic informationAverage income

decreased from

$143 in 2011 to

$134 in 2014

Source: FinScope, 2011; FinScope, 2014

% of adults

$134

Key finding 1: Generating target markets with stark differences

Source: FinScope, 2014

Target market profiles

$108

$368

$199

$110

$77

Ave

rage

inco

me

(p

.m.)

$69

864 k

575 k

736 k

1.0 m

2.5 m

893 k

• Biggest target market (Migrants) outside of the country (3.3 million adults)

• Salaried workers most educated (34% tertiary education), but one of the smallest target markets and declining (~736 000)

• MSMEs largely informal (~75% informal)

• Farmers largest domestic market (2.5 million), but very low monthly incomes (US$ 77)

• Survivalist workers report lowest average monthly income (US$ 69)

• Remittance receivers (70%) and Dependents (84%) most skewed towards females

3.3 m

40%

65%

84%

70%

50%51%57%

60%

35%

16%

30%

50%49%43%

Salaried workersMSMEDependentsRemittancereceivers

FarmersSurvivalistworkers

Total popl.

Female Male

Key finding 1: Target markets: Gender distribution

Source: FinScope, 2014

864 k575 k 736 k1.0 mil2.5 mil893 k

Key Finding 1: With most people dependent on farming to live

15% 15% 19% 32% 38%

100 %

-

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

SalariedWorkers

Dependents MSME's Remittancereceivers

SurvivalistWorkers

Farmers

% of adults that report farming as a source of income

736 000864 000

2 500 000

893 000

575 000

1 036 000

51% of adults reporting farming as a secondary or primary source of income

Type of farming activity

Commercial farming

Subsistence farming

No. of adults in

target market

0.04%

99.96%

Key Finding 1: And microenterprises the other survival strategy

EducationA

spir

atio

n

Reluctant entrepreneurSurvivalist

Struggling go-getters

24% 24%

21%31%

$ 248

Source: FinScope, 2012

Driven achievers

22% of MSMEs in farming

60% female

76% informal

$ 463

$ 186

$ 356

Demographics

Key Finding 1: And microenterprises the other survival strategy

$297

$635

$1 141

72%

25%

3%

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1 000

$1 200

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Individual (0 employees) Micro enterprises (1 -5employees)

SME (> 6 employees)

Average income % of MSME population

% of MSMEs

Average month income (US$)

Source: FinScope Zimbabwe MSME Survey, 2012

Key Finding 1: Resulting in fewer formal services used

Legend:• Banked: Adults with bank

accounts

• Formal: Access provided by non-bank formal FSPs, i.e. mobile money, insurers & MFIs

• Informal: Usage of informal providers, e.g. savings groups and moneylenders

• Family and friends: Services provided by family and friends, or self

• Excluded: No current access to formal or informal financial services

2014

8% 73% 4% 14% 1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

% of adults

Reverse Access Strand

2014

30% 39% 7% 16% 8%

Access Strand

Key Finding 1: Fewer employed = Fewer formal services used

736,000 adults (2014)

~ 1.2m adults (1998*)

Source: Southern African Migration Report*, 2008; FinScope, 2014

22%

3%

2%

18%

5%

8%

11%

8%

7%

6%

7%

10%

6%

6%

7%

16%

21%

24%

27%

29%

26%

38%

66%

56%

53%

56%

59%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Salaried workers

Farmers

MSME's

Dependents

Remittance Receivers

Survivalist Workers

Credit Strand

Bank Other formal Informal Family & Friends Excluded

Salaried workers

Finding 1: Declining income &

employment depress use of formal financial services

Finding 2: Dutch disease undermines credit but

drives payments – weak exports, strong imports

Key Finding 2: Dutch disease undermines credit but drives payments – weak exports, strong imports

Dutch Disease: “the deindustrialization of a nation’s economy that occurs when the discovery of a natural resource raises the value of the nation’s currency, making manufactured goods less competitive with other nations, increasing imports and decreasing exports”.

Sources: Handbook of Development Economics (2009)

Key Finding 2: Dutch disease undermines credit but drives payments

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Mar

-09

Au

g-0

9

Jan

-10

Jun

-10

No

v-1

0

Ap

r-1

1

Sep

-11

Feb

-12

Jul-

12

De

c-1

2

May

-13

Oct

-13

Mar

-14

Au

g-1

4

Jan

-15

Jun

-15

USD

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000USD/ MZM

USD/ ZAR

USD/ BWP

Source: World Bank, 2015; Oanda, 2015

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Exports/ Bn Imports/ Bn Trade Balance/ Bn

USD Foreign Currency Exchange Rates (select SADC trade partners)Trade Statistics 2000 - 2014

Key Finding 2: Dutch disease undermines credit but drives payments

43%

55%

58%63% 63%

57%

45%

42%37% 37%

4%

7%

13%

16% 16%

6%

5%4% 4%

3%

2%3%

3% 3%4%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Funded income Non-funded income Zimbabwe NPL South Africa NPL Mozambique NPL

Non-performing loans (% of total loans)

Income(US$ 000 000)

Source: RBZ, 2014

Key Finding 2: Dutch disease undermines credit but drives payments

12%

16%

19%

30%

38%

57%

78%

88%

84%

82%

70%

62%

43%

22%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Tanzania 2013*

Mozambique 2014

Malawi 2014

Zambia 2015

Lesotho 2011*

Zimbabwe 2014

South Africa 2014

Access to transactions Excluded

6%

19%

23%

23%

34%

39%

40%

45%

57%

58%

94%

81%

77%

77%

66%

61%

60%

55%

43%

42%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Mauritius 2014

Malawi 2014

South Africa 2014

Mozambique 2014

DRC 2014

Zambia 2015

Botswana 2014

Swaziland 2014

Lesotho 2011*

Zimbabwe 2014

Access to remittances Excluded

Source: FinScope Consumer Surveys

Zimbabwe ranks 2nd in

transactions

Transactions26% (2011)57% (2014)

Zimbabwe ranks 1st in remittances

Adults remittances

Remittances40% (2011)

58% (2014)

Finding 1: Declining income &

employment depress use of formal financial services

Finding 2: Dutch disease undermines credit but

drives payments – weak exports, strong imports

Finding 3: Banks’ contribution

to financial inclusion has declined – business model changes required for banks to regain ground

Key Finding 3: Banks’ contribution to financial inclusion has declined – business model changes required for banks to regain ground

Key Finding 3: Banks’ share of financial inclusion declines

Legend:• Banked: Adults with bank

accounts

• Formal: Access provided by non-bank formal FSPs, i.e. mobile money, insurers & MFIs

• Informal: Usage of informal providers, e.g. savings groups and moneylenders

• Family and friends: Services provided by family and friends, or self

• Excluded: No current access to formal or informal financial services

30% 39% 7% 16% 8%

Access strand

24% 14% 22% 24% 16%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Access strand

Source: FinScope Consumer Survey 2011; 2014

2011

2014

4%

25%

3%

23%

70%

64%

65%

61%

25%

9%

32%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2014 2011 2014

Dormant (0 trans.) Mailbox (1-2 trans.) Used (3+ trans.)

Key Finding 3: Banks’ share of financial inclusion declines

Source: Findex, 2011; Findex, 2014

Deposits Withdrawals

% of banked adults by frequency usage

% of bank

accounts

Key Finding 3: Banks’ share of financial inclusion declines

Source: FinScope Consumer Survey 2011; 2014

24% 26%

41%

67%

16%

30%

66%

25%

73%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Banked Other formal Informal Family and Friends /At home

Excluded

Pe

rce

nta

ge o

f ad

ult

s

2011 2014

Key Finding 3: Banks’ share of financial inclusion declines

2111

602 526.6

260

38.4

$132

$177

$418

$369

$-

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Family and Friends Informal credit Mobile credit Bank MicrofinanceInstitutions

Profile of borrowers by institution

Total Borrowers Average Income

Source: FinScope Consumer Survey 2014

Total number of borrowers

(‘000)

Average income(USD)

Key Finding 3: …and less trusted than MMOsPreferred provider for most adults in Zimbabwe

2%

5%

6%

9%

26%

30%

10%

27%

27%

32%

37%

42%

16%

25%

22%

21%

17%

12%

20%

19%

11%

9%

11%

3%

52%

25%

34%

30%

8%

14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

MFIs

Cooperatives

Insurance companies

Retirement funds

Banks

MMOs

Most trusted Trusted Slightly trusted Not trusted Dont Know

Key Finding 3: Consumer perceptions of pricing models put banks on the back foot

“We do not need banks anymore because we now have EcoCash”

-Survivalist worker: Farm labourer at a pig farm

“The bank eats into your money”

-Government worker

Finding 4: Payments & Mobile Money

platforms now dominate financial inclusion landscape

Key Finding 4: Payments & Mobile Money platforms now dominate financial inclusion landscape

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

RCTVInvestmentin Business

EducationAssetaccumulation

RDTVFarminginputs

EncashmentConsumptionsmoothing

Riskmitigation

Bill paymentLocalpayment

% o

f a

du

lt p

op

ula

tio

n

Save Credit Payment Insurance Overlap

Key Finding 4: Payments dominate financial services needs

Source: FinScope Consumer Survey, 2014

RCTV – Remote cross-border transfer of valueRDTV – Remote domestic transfer of value

What is a need case?

A need case is a discrete consumer need that can be satisfied by one or more formal or informal financial services.

Key Finding 4: How needs are met by providers

Banks Informal Mobile Money

Asset Accumulation

Remote Cross-border transfer of value

Remote domestic transfer of value

Farming inputs

Enterprise Finance

Education

Local Payments

Bill Payments

Risk Mitigation

Consumption Smoothing

Encashment

Intensity of usage

Low usage

Average usage

High usage

Key Finding 4: Mobile Money now dominates payments

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

s o

f tr

ansa

ctio

ns

Val

ue

of

tran

sact

ion

s (M

illio

ns

of

USD

)

POS (Value USD) ATMs (Value USD) Mobile (Value USD)

POS (No. of transactions) ATMs (No. of transactions) Mobile (No. of transactions)72%

3m

5.3m

Mobile moneysubscriptions

(2013)

(2014)

+72% growth in mobile money subscriptions

Source: RBZ, 2015

Mobile

POS

ATM

Key Finding 4: Providers of remittances

Source: FinScope Consumer Survey, 2014

20%

2%

5%

6%

8%

64%

81%

67%

79%

68%

5%

6%

13%

10%

7%

11%

11%

15%

5%

16%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Remote cross-border transfer of value

Remote domestic transfer of value

Consumption Smoothing

Education

Asset Accumulation

Banked Formal non-bank Informal Family and friends

Key Finding 4: Shift to agents with mobile leading the way

2239

23 379

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15

Axis Title

Bank agents MMO agents Mobile Banking Agents ATMs POS

Agents

POS

ATM

Source: RBZ, 2015

No. of instruments

No. of agents

Key Finding 4: But mobile money a key consumer protection concern

• Individual consumers do not receive deposit protection• Legally binding regulations for MMOs still to be passed• No banking recourse for individual consumers • Interoperability not yet mandated

Finding 5: Cross-border retail money

flows major growth area – fundamental for economy and households to survive

Key finding 5: Cross-border retail money flows major growth area

Key Finding 5: Cross-border retail money flows major growth area

70%

13%

6%

7%

2%1% 1%

South Africa

UK

Botswana

Elsewhere in Africa

USA & Canada

Australia and NewZealandElsewhere in theWorld

Source: FinScope 2014, IOM, 2012; Southern African Migration Report, 2008, UNDP, 2010 & World Bank

2014

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Remittances

USD 770m

USD 300m

931, 000 (13% of adults) received remittances in 2014

3.3 million (47% of adult population) live outside of Zimbabwe

Key Finding 5: Banks selling directly cross-border to diaspora

Credit services

• Savings accounts

• Transaction accounts

• Credit card

Insurance Banking services Investment services

• Equity• Bonds• Property• Retirement

• Home mortgages

26%

11%

32%22%

22%

16%

20%

14%

48%

72%

47%

64%

4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Driven achievers Reluctant entrepreneurs Struggling go-getters Survivalist

Manufacturing Service industry Trade Finance Other

Key Finding 5: Main MSME sector is cross-border trade

Source: FinScope Zimbabwe MSME Survey, 2012

% of MSME population

Key finding 6: Informal financial services soaring

Family and friends

Finding 6: Informal financial

services soaring – communities act collectively to survive

Use formal financial services from:

Use informal financial services from:

Key Finding 6: Providers for savings

16%

13%

15%

18%

14%

13%

13%

15%

21%

20%

22%

24%

50%

54%

50%

44%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Planned risk mitigation

Consumption smoothing

Education

Asset accumulation

% of total use cases met by provider

Banked Formal non-bank Informal Family and friends / at home

Source: FinScope Consumer Survey, 2014

80% of local transactions happen in cash

Key Finding 6: Informal provision dominates

So, if something went wrong who would you think of… as the first contact to get a loan from?

It would be family. I am saying it because I cannot think of any financial institution that I could go to; to get money because you cannot get any financial assistance from any

institution. They are not lending. If they are lending, then they have so many strings attached.

Can you think of something that went wrong?

I would have to rely on family. Even when we had to bury my dad, his children and family contributed money for most of the requirements. Of course we also made use of the burial

society funds.

Private Sector Worker: PETER – Pharmaceutical Wholesaler (High Income)

Key finding 7: Private human capital development a priority

Finding 7: Private human capital development a

priority – financial services to support education

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

RCTVInvestmentin Business

EducationAssetaccumulation

RDTVFarminginputs

EncashmentConsumptionsmoothing

Riskmitigation

Bill paymentLocalpayment

% o

f a

du

lt p

op

ula

tio

n

Save Credit Payment Insurance Overlap

Key Finding 7: Strong drive for accumulation of non-financial assets

Source: FinScope Consumer Survey, 2014

RCTV – Remote cross-border transfer of valueRDTV – Remote domestic transfer of value

Key Finding 7: Private human capital development a priority –makes for resilient microenterprises

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Driven achievers Reluctant entrepreneurs Struggling go-getters Survivalist

% o

f M

SME

po

pu

lati

on

Zimbabwe Malawi Mozambique

Source: FinScope Zimbabwe Consumer Survey, 2012, FinScope MalawiConsumer Survey, 2012 & FinScope Mozambique Consumer Survey, 2012

Agenda

• MAP diagnostic components

• Key findings

• Options to extend financial inclusion

Options to extend financial inclusion

1. Focus on where you can drive financial inclusion given current conditions

2. Facilitate transaction based revenue for banks

3. Strengthen underpinnings of the credit market

4. Enhanced interoperability at retail payments level

5. Facilitate cashless payments for cross-border traders

6. Facilitate formal remittances and cross-border services for migrants

7. Facilitate products to build human and physical capital

MAP is a comprehensive market assessment of retail financial services. The purpose of MAP is to assist the Government to identify key priorities and opportunities to extend access to financial services.

The MAP framework has been developed in partnership between Cenfri, FinMark Trust and the UNCDF and is intended to become a public good that can advance the global financial inclusion agenda.

Thank You!

Please contact us at…

Wadzi MachenaE-mail: wadzi@cenfri.org

Hennie BesterE-mail: hennie@cenfri.org