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Milk Market Situation
Brussels, 19 January 2012
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 2
!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!
EU Productions
EU-27 Deliveries/Productions development(Jan-Oct 2011 compared to Jan-Oct 2010)
Total Butter+ 1.7%
Cows' Milk Collected+ 2.2%
Skimmed-milk powder+ 12.3%
Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed
milk powder- 3.9%
Cheese+ 0.1%
Fermented milk+ 0.4%
-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%
Ev
olu
tio
n e
n %
.
Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat
EU-27 Deliveries/Production developments(Apr-Oct 2011 compared to Apr-Oct 2010)
Total Butter+ 1.8%
Skimmed-milk powder+ 10.9%
Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed
milk powder- 8.2%
Cheese- 0.3%
Fermented milk+ 0.2%
Cows' Milk Collected+ 1.9%
-13% -11% -9% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15%
Ev
olu
tio
n e
n %
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 3
-8.0% to -6.0% -6.0% to -4.0% -4.0% to -2.0% -2.0% to +0.0% +0.0% to +2.0% +2.0% to +4.0% +4.0% to +6.0% +6.0% to +8.0%
+2.0
-7.9
+1.9
-1.1
+2.4
+0.7
+4.8
-7.6+1.8
+6.5
-1.4
+0.2
+5.5
+2.8
-0.2
-3.0
0
-0.2
+4.3
+2.8
+0.4
-2.0+1.1
+0.9
-1.5
-0.6
+1.6
Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 4
-16.0% to -12.0% -12.0% to -8.0% -8.0% to -4.0% -4.0% to +0.0% +0.0% to +4.0% +4.0% to +8.0% +8.0% to +12.0% +12.0% to +16.0%
+1.6
-8.4
+2.5
-0.8
+2.2
-1.5
+2.7
-8.7+1.5
+5.9
-1.2
+0.2
+4.8
+1.7
-0.1
-1.7
0
-0.3
+4.4
+2.8
+0.4
+0.6+0.9
+1.9
-2.1
-0.7
+0.5
Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 5Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat
Monthly Deliveries EU 27
10 000
10 500
11 000
11 500
12 000
12 500
13 000
DecNovOctSepAugJ ulJ unMayAprMarFebJ an
100
0 t
onne
s
2008 2009 2010 2011
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 6
EU 15/12 Milk Deliveries and Prices1
49
2
1 3
80
1 5
41
1 5
43
1 7
13
1 6
85
1 6
79
1 6
56
1 5
36
1 4
64
1 3
43
1 4
02
1 4
04
1 2
92
1 4
77
1 5
10
1 6
51
1 6
34
1 6
32
1 6
20
1 5
34
1 4
77
1 4
05
1 4
38
1 3
14
1 4
91
1 4
88
1 6
43
1 6
24
1 6
73
1 6
63
1 5
79
1 5
55
1 4
37
9 6
62
9 0
35 10
21
0
10
35
5
10
69
6
10
05
7
9 8
42
9 4
66
8 8
69
9 1
25
8 8
16
9 3
14
9 5
28
8 9
43 10
20
7
10
31
9
10
92
0
10
28
8
10
04
9
9 7
86
9 3
63
9 5
59
9 1
46
9 4
58
9 8
57
9 2
17 10
54
9
10
69
3
11
04
4
10
35
7
10
36
1
9 9
80
9 4
93
9 5
81
9 2
06
1 3
55
23
.36
21
.55
21
.06
21
.12
20
.93
20
.52
20
.99
21
.67
22
.10
22
.89 24
.84
25
.56
26
.05
26
.39
26
.68
26
.60
26
.00
25
.87
25
.99
26
.84
28
.25 3
0.4
4
30
.77
30
.96
31
.11
30
.93
30
.45
30
.48
30
.04
29
.60
30
.14
30
.44
30
.33
29
.52
27
.33
25
.06
24
.95
25
.18
25
.51
26
.32
26
.98
27
.57
29
.03
28
.81
29
.40
28
.98
28
.32
28
.41
29
.15
30
.25
31
.33
32
.53
33
.38
33
.50
33
.81
33
.74
33
.63
33
.73
33
.68
33
.32
33
.67
34
.35
34
.85
35
.10
35
.63
35
.71
36
.04
30
.12
28
.82
30
.09
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Ja
n 0
9
Fe
b 0
9
Ma
r 0
9
Ap
r 0
9
Ma
y 0
9
Ju
n 0
9
Ju
l 09
Au
g 0
9
Se
p 0
9
Oc
t 0
9
No
v 0
9
De
c 0
9
Ja
n 1
0
Fe
b 1
0
Ma
r 1
0
Ap
r 1
0
Ma
y 1
0
Ju
n 1
0
Ju
l 10
Au
g 1
0
Se
p 1
0
Oc
t 1
0
No
v 1
0
De
c 1
0
Ja
n 1
1
Fe
b 1
1
Ma
r 1
1
Ap
r 1
1
Ma
y 1
1
Ju
n 1
1
Ju
l 11
Au
g 1
1
Se
p 1
1
Oc
t 1
1
No
v 1
1
Pro
du
ctio
ns
in 1
000
To
ns
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
22 000
24 000
26 000
28 000
Pri
ces
in E
UR
/100
kg Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-12)
Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-15)
Weighted average Milk price (EU-12)
Weighted average Milk price (EU-15)
Source : Eurostat, Reg. (EC) No 429/2010 Art. 3
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 7
Sources : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010, LTO website
Milk Prices Evolution (up to November 2011)
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Ap
r 0
1
Oct
01
Ap
r 0
2
Oct
02
Ap
r 0
3
Oct
03
Ap
r 0
4
Oct
04
Ap
r 0
5
Oct
05
Ap
r 0
6
Oct
06
Ap
r 0
7
Oct
07
Ap
r 0
8
Oct
08
Ap
r 0
9
Oct
09
Ap
r 1
0
Oct
10
Ap
r 1
1
Oct
11
EUR/100 kg
LTO Weighted Average Milk Price * (standardized 4.2% fat)
Weighted EU Average (real fat content)
EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices)
LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland (http://www.milkprices.nl/)
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 8
EU Milk Prices(November 2011 compared to November 2010)
53.9
48.346.2
45.4
39.038.0 38.0 37.3 37.2 36.9 36.5
35.2 35.134.2 34.0 33.7 33.2 32.8 32.5 32.4 32.3 32.0 32.0
30.2 29.9 29.7 29.4 28.9
14
18
22
26
30
34
38
42
46
50
54
CY MT EL FI IT AT IE NL SE DE DK EU27
LU BE FR BG UK SI ES PT SK EE CZ LT LV HU RO PL
in E
UR
/10
0 k
g
Milk Price 2010 Milk Price 2011
Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010
NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010
Estimates for BG and CZ
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 9
Monthly EU SMP Prices
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00 k
g
2009 2010 2011 2012 I P 2009
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 10
EU SMP Prices(up to 15/01/2012)
308
249238 237 236 234 234 233 226 218
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
LV UK BE DE SK EU 27 CZ FR PL IE
in E
UR
/10
0 k
g
Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 11
Monthly EU BUTTER Prices
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00 k
g
2009 2010 2011 2012 I P 2009
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 12
EU Butter Prices (up to 15.01.2012)
402 396
354 352 352 346 340
501
332333334346
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
SK GB LV IE EU 27 BE DE NL PT ES CZ PL
EU
R/1
00 k
g
Butter Price of Reg. 479/2010
Butter Intervention price
I.P. = 221.75
Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 13
Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010
EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)
351.7
233.7
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
Jan
03
Apr
03
Jul
03
Oct
03
Jan
04
Apr
04
Jul
04
Oct
04
Jan
05
Apr
05
Jul
05
Oct
05
Jan
06
Apr
06
Jul
06
Oct
06
Jan
07
Apr
07
Jul
07
Oct
07
Jan
08
Apr
08
Jul
08
Oct
08
Jan
09
Apr
09
Jul
09
Oct
09
Jan
10
Apr
10
Jul
10
Oct
10
Jan
11
Apr
11
Jul
11
Oct
11
Jan
12
in E
UR/1
00 k
g
.
BUTTER SMP
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 14
Monthly EU WMP Prices
150170190210230250270290310330350370390410
Jan Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 15
Monthly EU CHEDDAR Prices
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
Jan Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2009 2010 2011 2012
Monthly EU EDAM Prices
200220240260280300320340360380400420
Jan Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011 2009 2010 2012
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 16
Monthly EU WheyPowder Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011 2009 2010 2012
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 17
EU Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter in EUR
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Ma
r 0
7
Ma
y 0
7
Jul 0
7
Se
p 0
7
No
v 0
7
Jan
08
Ma
r 0
8
Ma
y 0
8
Jul 0
8
Se
p 0
8
No
v 0
8
Jan
09
Ma
r 0
9
Ma
y 0
9
Jul 0
9
Se
p 0
9
No
v 0
9
Jan
10
Ma
r 1
0
Ma
y 1
0
Jul 1
0
Se
p 1
0
No
v 1
0
Jan
11
Ma
r 1
1
Ma
y 1
1
Jul 1
1
Se
p 1
1
No
v 1
1
Jan
12
EU
R f
or
10
00
kg
of
Milk
Cheese/Butter/Whey
SMP/Butter
WMP/Butter
Source: Reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 18
WORLD Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter (in USD).
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
Ma
r 0
7
Ma
y 0
7
Jul 0
7
Se
p 0
7
No
v 0
7
Jan
08
Ma
r 0
8
Ma
y 0
8
Jul 0
8
Se
p 0
8
No
v 0
8
Jan
09
Ma
r 0
9
Ma
y 0
9
Jul 0
9
Se
p 0
9
No
v 0
9
Jan
10
Ma
r 1
0
Ma
y 1
0
Jul 1
0
Se
p 1
0
No
v 1
0
Jan
11
Ma
r 1
1
Ma
y 1
1
Jul 1
1
Se
p 1
1
No
v 1
1
Jan
12
US
D f
or
10
00
kg
of
Milk
Cheese/Butter/Whey
SMP/Butter
WMP/Butter
Source: USDA
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 19
USD/EUR
1.2831
Source: European Central Bank
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 20
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter
3 875
4 560
3 590
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000O
ct 0
4
Jan
05
Apr
05
Jul 0
5
Oct
05
Jan
06
Apr
06
Jul 0
6
Oct
06
Jan
07
Apr
07
Jul 0
7
Oct
07
Jan
08
Apr
08
Jul 0
8
Oct
08
Jan
09
Apr
09
Jul 0
9
Oct
09
Jan
10
Apr
10
Jul 1
0
Oct
10
Jan
11
Apr
11
Jul 1
1
Oct
11
Jan
12
Pri
ces
in U
SD
/to
nn
e
Avg Oceania Butter quotation
Avg EU Butter internal Price
Avg US Butter quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 21
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP
3 475
2 980
3 260
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
Oct
04
Jan
05
Apr
05
Jul 0
5
Oct
05
Jan
06
Apr
06
Jul 0
6
Oct
06
Jan
07
Apr
07
Jul 0
7
Oct
07
Jan
08
Apr
08
Jul 0
8
Oct
08
Jan
09
Apr
09
Jul 0
9
Oct
09
Jan
10
Apr
10
Jul 1
0
Oct
10
Jan
11
Apr
11
Jul 1
1
Oct
11
Jan
12
Pri
ces
in U
SD
/to
nn
e
Avg Oceania SMP quotation
Avg EU SMP internal Price
Avg US SMP quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 22
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP
3 638
3 710
3 910
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000O
ct 0
4
Jan
05
Apr
05
Jul 0
5
Oct
05
Jan
06
Apr
06
Jul 0
6
Oct
06
Jan
07
Apr
07
Jul 0
7
Oct
07
Jan
08
Apr
08
Jul 0
8
Oct
08
Jan
09
Apr
09
Jul 0
9
Oct
09
Jan
10
Apr
10
Jul 1
0
Oct
10
Jan
11
Apr
11
Jul 1
1
Oct
11
Jan
12
Pri
ces
in U
SD
/to
nn
e
Avg Oceania WMP quotation
Avg EU WMP internal Price
Avg US WMP quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 23
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar
4 088
4 260
3 520
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000
Oct
04
Jan
05
Apr
05
Jul 0
5
Oct
05
Jan
06
Apr
06
Jul 0
6
Oct
06
Jan
07
Apr
07
Jul 0
7
Oct
07
Jan
08
Apr
08
Jul 0
8
Oct
08
Jan
09
Apr
09
Jul 0
9
Oct
09
Jan
10
Apr
10
Jul 1
0
Oct
10
Jan
11
Apr
11
Jul 1
1
Oct
11
Jan
12
Pri
ces
in U
SD
/to
nn
e
Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation
Avg EU Cheddar internal Price
Avg US Cheddar quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 24
BUTTER Exports
31 51220 042
115 372
86 608
197 950191 886
49 78441 806
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
2010 2011
EU-27 (Jan - Nov)New Zealand (Jan-Oct )Australia (Jan-Nov )United States (Jan-Nov )
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 25
BUTTEROIL Exports
25 617
118 284
13 92310 644
24 514
119 110
16 2739 951
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
2010 2011
EU-27 (Jan - Nov)New Zealand (Jan-Oct )Australia (Jan-Nov )United States (Jan-Nov )
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 26
SMP Exports
118 784 126 697
402 558
346 339
474 384
279 055271 600
349 964
-50 000
50 000
150 000
250 000
350 000
450 000
550 000
2010 2011
EU-27 (Jan - Nov)New Zealand (Jan-Oct )Australia (Jan-Nov )United States (Jan-Nov )
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 27
WMP Exports
364 102
858 293
50 148 18 681
413 186
750 448
105 820102 479
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
800 000
900 000
1 000 000
2010 2011
EU-27 (Jan - Nov)New Zealand (Jan-Oct )Australia (Jan-Nov )United States (Jan-Nov )
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 28
CHEESESExports
619 041 624 42721
9 59
2
.
207
172
.
145
799
.
152
884
.
155 010205 366
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
2010 2011
EU-27 (Jan - Nov)New Zealand (Jan-Oct )Australia (Jan-Nov )United States (Jan-Nov )
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 29
BUTTER Imports
50 58653 218
32 53435 341
5 2965 228
16 49913 695
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
2010 2011
EU-27 (Jan - Nov)United States (Jan-Nov )Russia (Jan-Oct )China (Jan-Nov )
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 30
BUTTEROIL Imports
2 7323 999
20 954
7 596
2 275
8 037
29 607
15 728
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
2010 2011
EU-27 (Jan - Nov)United States (Jan-Nov )Mexico (Jan-Oct )China (Jan-Nov )
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 31
SMP Imports
79 526
113 807
90 728
3 801 441
23 970
51 721 53 334
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
2010 2011
EU-27 (Jan - Nov)
Russia (Jan-Oct )
China (Jan-Nov )
Algeria (Jan-Jul )
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 32
WMP Imports
1 428
140 476
291 087 299 600
1 950
101 023
0 0
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
2010 2011
EU-27 (Jan - Nov)
Algeria (Jan-Jul )
#N/A
China (Jan-Nov )
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 33
CHEESESImports
74 379 67 407
236 342 238 915
179 609193 216
123 491 129 454
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
2010 2011
EU-27 (Jan - Nov)Russia (Jan-Oct )Japan (Jan-Nov )United States (Jan-Nov )
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 34
Adjusted U.S. milk production (months of constant length)
6 600
6 800
7 000
7 200
7 400
7 600
7 800
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-Nov 2011 compared to 2010 : + 1.6% (real monthly production)
in t
on
nes
.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: USDA
U.S. milk production
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 35
Jan-Nov 2011 compared to 2010 : + 1.6% (real monthly production)
U.S. milk production
6 000
6 200
6 400
6 600
6 800
7 000
7 200
7 400
7 600
7 800
8 000Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan-Nov 2011 compared to 2010 : + 1.6% (real monthly production)
in t
on
nes
.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: USDA
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 36
Source: Dairy Australia
Australian milk production
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
1 100
1 200Ju
l
Au
g
Sep Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
Jul-Oct 2011/12 compared to 2010/11 : + 2.8%
in t
on
nes
.
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Market Situation – 19 January 2012 37
Source: DCANZ - Fonterra
NZ milk production
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500Ju
n
Jul
Au
g
Sep Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun-Oct 2011/12 compared to 2010/11 : + 10.4%
in t
on
nes
.
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
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