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© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 1 1 © 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Mobile Data Trends and Networks Fit for Purpose Focus on SEE
Robert Pepper Vice President Global Technology Policy 20 March 2013 SEE Mobility Summit
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 2
Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
Global Mobile Speed Data
Global Forecast Data
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 3
Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers
More Mobile Users
Faster Mobile Speeds
More Mobile Connections
More Mobile Video
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 4
Overview
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
7.4 EB
0.9 EB
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 13X from 2012 to 2017
11.2 EB
4.7 EB
2.8 EB
1.6 EB
66% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
379 PB
48 PB
CEE Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line CEE-R Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 11X from 2012 to 2017
546 PB
247 PB
148 PB
83 PB
63% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 7
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
1 EB
0.2 EB
WE Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line WE Mobile Data Traffic will Increase 8X from 2012 to 2017
1.4 EB
0.7 EB
0.4 EB 0.3 EB
50% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 8
42.2
32.7
43.1
33.9
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
IP Traffic in 2012 Internet & Mobile Traffic in 2012
Exab
ytes
per
mon
th
Projected in 2009
VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 9
Top Trends
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 10
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 6 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
The Impact of Tiered Pricing—Shake-Up at the Top
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 11
Global Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type
Non-Smartphone
2017 2012
6.8 31
MBs per Month MBs per Month
M2M 64 330
Smartphone 342 2,660
4G Smartphone 1,302 5,114
Tablet 820 5,387
Laptop 2,503 5,731
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bill
ions
of D
evic
es
Other Portable Devices (.9%) Tablets (2.3%) Laptops (2.6%) M2M (16.5%) Smartphones (27.4%)
Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Gain 11 Points to Reach 27% Share
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
8% CAGR 2012–2017
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 13
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Other Portable Devices (.2%) Non-Smartphones (1.4%) M2M (5.1%) Tablets (11.7%) Laptops (14.0%) Smartphones (67.5%)
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device In 2013, Smartphone Traffic Surpass Mobile Laptop Traffic
Figures (n) refer to 2017 device share
66% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 14
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bill
ions
of D
evic
es
Other Portable Devices (1%, 2%) Tablets (2%, 6%) Laptops (5%, 5%) M2M (11%, 37%) Smartphones (30%, 37%)
WE Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Smartphones Will Have 37% Share in 2017
Figures (n) refer to 2012 and 2017 device share
10% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ions
of D
evic
es
Other Portable Devices (0%, 0%) Tablets (0%, 2%) Laptops (3%, 3%) M2M (7%, 22%) Smartphones (15%, 22%)
CEE Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2017, Non-Smartphones Still Dominant in Numbers
Figures (n) refer to 2012 and 2017 device share
6% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 16
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
Other Portable Devices (0%, 0%) Non-Smartphones (4%, 4%) M2M (4%, 6%) Tablets (1%, 12%) Laptops (51%, 19%) Smartphones (40%, 59%)
CEE Mobile Data Traffic Growth by Device Smartphone Traffic Surpasses Laptop Traffic in 2013
63% CAGR 2012–2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
Figures (n) refer to 2012 and 2017 device share
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 17
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 6 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
The Impact of Tiered Pricing—Shake-Up at the Top
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 18
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bill
ions
of D
evic
es o
r C
onne
ctio
ns
4G 3G
Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
57% 76%
23%
1%
33%
10%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 19
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ions
of D
evic
es o
r C
onne
ctio
ns
4G 3G
WE Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
70%
56%
44%
1% 12%
18%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 20
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ions
of D
evic
es o
r C
onne
ctio
ns
4G 3G
CEE Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share
72%
77%
22%
0% 8%
21%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 21
0
2
4
6
8
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
2-2.5G 3-3.5G 4G
Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G 4G Will Be 10% of Connections and 45% of Traffic in 2017
14%
45%
51%
10% 76%
4%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 22
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
2-2.5G 3-3.5G 4G
CEE Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G 4G Will Be 8% of Connections and 37% of Traffic in 2017
2%
37%
60%
22% 76%
3%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 23
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 6 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
The Impact of Tiered Pricing—Shake-Up at the Top
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 24
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Perc
enta
ge o
f top
1 P
erce
nt
to to
tal M
B/m
o
Top 1 percent
Top Mobile User Profiles: 2010–2012 Top 1% Consumption Steadily Decreasing Compared to 99%
24%
16%
52%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 25
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 6 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
The Impact of Tiered Pricing—Shake-Up at the Top
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 26
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload 22% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2016 11% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2011
22%
78%
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
2012 FORECAST
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 27
0
5
10
15
20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload 46% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 33% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012
46%
54%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 28
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
CEE Mobile Data Traffic Offload 29% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 19% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012
29%
71%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 29
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
WE Mobile Data Traffic Offload 51% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 32% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012
51%
49%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 30
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices
US Mobile Data Traffic Offload 66% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded in 2017 47% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2012
66%
34%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 31
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Mobile Data (70% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (20% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi (34% CAGR)
Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology By 2016, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic
40%
53%
7%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
28% CAGR 2011–2016
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 32
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Mobile Data (70% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (20% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Offload (112% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi (31% CAGR)
Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology With Wi-Fi Offload
40%
47%
7%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016
27% CAGR 2011–2016
6%
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 33
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exab
ytes
per
Mon
th
Mobile Data (69% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (19% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Offload (109% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi (48% CAGR)
CEE IP Traffic by Local Access Technology With Wi-Fi Offload
32%
55%
10%
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016; CEE excluding Russia
35% CAGR 2011–2016
4%
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 34
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 6 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
The Impact of Tiered Pricing—Shake-Up at the Top
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 35
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ions
Devices Users
CEE Mobile Users and Devices Users Grow at 1% CAGR, Devices Grow at 6% CAGR
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
785
590
342 319
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 36
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
2 PB per mo
CEE M2M Mobile Data Traffic Growth M2M Data Traffic will Increase 19X from 2012 to 2017
32 PB per mo
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
80% CAGR 2012–2017
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 37
VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2012–2017 Top 6 Mobile Networking Trends
Device Diversification
Impact of 4G Connections on Traffic
The Impact of Tiered Pricing—Shake-Up at the Top
Traffic Offload from Mobile Networks to Fixed Networks
The (Mobile) Internet of Things
Mobile Video and Cloud
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 38
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Peta
byte
s pe
r Mon
th
Mobile File Sharing (7.5%) Mobile M2M (5.8%) Mobile Web/Data (22.9%) Mobile Video (63.7%)
63% CAGR 2012–2017
CEE Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 63 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017
Figures (n) refer to 2017 traffic share
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 39
68% 70% 73% 76% 78% 81%
32% 30% 27% 24% 22% 19%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mobile Cloud Traffic Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic
CEE Mobile Cloud Traffic Cloud Accounted for 68% of Mobile Data Traffic in 2012 Cloud Will Account for 81% of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2012–2017; CEE excluding Russia
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 40
Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Individual Apps
Basic Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: Up to 750 kbps Upload Speed: Up to 250 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms
Intermediate Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: 751–2,500 kbps Upload Speed: 251–1,000 kbps Latency: 159 - 100 ms
Advanced Cloud Apps Network Requirements: Download Speed: Higher than 2,500 kbps Upload Speed: Higher than 1,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms
• Text communications (email, instant messaging)
• Web browsing • File sharing
(low-res video) • Web conferencing • Social networking
(basic text only) • Stream basic video/ music
• File sharing (high-res video) • IP Telephony • ERP / CRM • Basic gaming (single player) • Basic video chat
(low-res video) • IP audio conferencing • Basic video conferencing
(low-res video) • Advanced social networking
(multimedia/interactivity) • HD video streaming
• HD Industrial design collaboration • Advanced gaming
(multi player) • Advanced video chat
(high-res video) • Advanced file sharing
(super high-res video) • HD audio conferencing • HD video conferencing
(high-res video) • Stream super HD video
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 41
Global Cloud Readiness Business & Consumer Network Requirements for Concurrent Apps
Basic Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~1900 kbps Upload Speed: ~600 kbps Latency: Above 160 ms
Intermediate Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket
Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~7,000 kbps Upload Speed: ~2,600 kbps Latency: 159 - 100 ms
Advanced Cloud Apps Concurrency Bucket
Network Requirements: Download Speed: ~21,000 kbps Upload Speed: ~9,000 kbps Latency: Less than 100 ms
• Text communications (email, instant messaging)
• Web browsing • File sharing
(low-res video) • Web conferencing • Social networking
(basic text only) • Stream basic video/ music
• File sharing (high-res video) • IP Telephony • ERP / CRM • Basic gaming (single player) • Basic video chat
(low-res video) • IP audio conferencing • Basic video conferencing
(low-res video) • Advanced social networking
(multimedia/interactivity) • HD video streaming
• HD Industrial design collaboration • Advanced gaming
(multi player) • Advanced video chat
(high-res video) • Advanced file sharing
(super high-res video) • HD audio conferencing • HD video conferencing
(high-res video) • Stream super HD video
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 42
Fixed Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia
Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Albania
-‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Other Countries Central and Eastern Europe
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 43
Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 44
Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Slovenia Ave download: 7.2mbps Ave upload: 4.2mbps Ave latency: 50ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 45
Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Croatia Ave download: 4.2mbps Ave upload: 0.7mbps Ave latency: 62ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 46
Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Bulgaria Ave download: 19.0mbps Ave upload: 12.2mbps Ave latency: 35ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 47
Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Bosnia & H. Ave download: 2.9mbps Ave upload: 0.6mbps Ave latency: 69ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 48
Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Albania Ave download: 2.6mbps Ave upload: 1.0mbps Ave latency: 102ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 49
Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Macedonia Ave download: 5.6mbps Ave upload: 2.1mbps Ave latency: 60ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 50
Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Serbia Ave download: 4.2mbps Ave upload: 0.9mbps Ave latency: 59ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 51
Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Montenegro Ave download: 3.5mbps Ave upload: 0.7mbps Ave latency: 75ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 52
Fixed Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Lithuania
Romania Bulgaria Latvia
Czech Rep.
Moldova
Hungary Slovakia
Ukraine Russia
Estonia Slovenia Poland Macedonia
Turkey Georgia
Serbia Croatia Montenegro
Armenia
Bosnia & H.
Belarus
Azerbaijan Albania -‐
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
-‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Less than 100ms 100ms -‐ 159ms
Romania Ave download: 22.9mbps Ave upload: 11.8mbps Ave latency: 39ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 53
Mobile Networks Upload/ Download Speeds
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Hungary
Russia
Ukraine
Romania
Poland
Turkey
0 200 400 600 800
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Other Countries Central and Eastern Europe
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 54
Mobile Speeds + Latency: CEE Countries
Source: Ookla Speedtest.net Net Index
Russia
Ukraine
Romania
Poland
Turkey Hungary
0 200 400 600 800
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Average Uploa
d Speed (kbp
s)
Average Download Speed (kbps)
Above 160ms 100 to 159ms Below 100ms
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 55
Summary
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 56
Summary and Implications
More users, each using more bandwidth Each user will have more/more powerful devices Accelerated smartphone adoption Video and cloud driving demand and consumption 4G will dramatically increase data consumption Advanced Cloud Apps Require Advanced Networks-low latency Off-load increasingly important—small cell complement Need more Spectrum – Licensed and Unlicensed Need fibre for backhaul, middle mile and aggregation in access Networks becoming heterogeneous; need to be “fit for purpose”
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 57
Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2012–2017 Get more info—see Tools and Resources
www.cisco.com/go/vni traffic-inquiries@cisco.com
© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 58
Thank you.
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