mouth closure at the tijuana estuaryusus 193sà e. knight 1900 1900 metskv maps c 1880 1900 xxib83....

Mouth Closureat the Tijuana Estuary

Jeff Crooks

Tijuana River National Estuarine Research Reserve

J McCullough, M Almeida, M Cordrey, J Lorda, B Collins

Ame Curtiss

Historical Ecology Study (Draft)San Francisco Estuary Institute

Tijuana River MouthOver Time

Waves vs.

Tides & River

Tijuana Estuary Mouth Closure1982 – 1983 El Nino

Tijuana River Mouth

Tijuana River Mouth

David Smith

Wave Heights at Point Loma Buoy

Current El Niño

Long TermAverage

Purple Varnish

Clams

Bubble Snails

Fish & Sea Hare

Anoxic Creek Bottom & Wrack

Dealing with Uncertain Futures:Climate Change Vulnerability in the TRV

• There is uncertainty associated with both the marine and riverine drivers, as will as the interaction between the two

• However, it is possible to envision plausible futures under different scenarios associated with changing riverine and marine drivers

Implications

• El Niño conditions provide a snapshot of a potential future

• Still investigating impacts and causes

• TJR mouth rarely closes, but when it does there can be major impacts

• Highlights importance of long-term monitoring, real-time data access, and rapid management response (USFWS and City of IB)