mri suzhou 27052011

Global Change in Mountain Regions: What Does It Mean and Why Should You Care?

Greg Greenwood Executive Director,

Mountain Research InitiativeUniversity of Bern, Switzerland

Mountainresearch initiative

Suzhou, China, 26 May 2011

OUTLINE

• Swiss commitment to mountain and climate research

• Why are mountains important? • How are mountains different?• How will climate change affect

mountains?• Interdisciplinary earth system

science in mountains

Mountain Research Initiative• Focused on Global

Change (climate, land use, population movement, economic development)

• Supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation as expression of Swiss foreign and scientific policy

• http://mri.scnatweb.ch

Switzerland supports other international global change projects: Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment (GMBA) and Past Global Changes (PAGES)

Switzerland also hosts and supports Working Group 1 (Physical Science Basis) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The University of Bernis renown for mountainand climate research

WHY ARE MOUNTAINS IMPORTANT?

• Significant planetary feature• Water: supply, power, hazard• Protection from hazards• Natural resources: forests, pasture • Carbon sequestration• Biodiversity• Tourism and recreation

Global significance of mountain regionsQuantitative considerations

• 22% of the terrestrial land area are mountains

• 12% of the global human population live in mountain regions

• 50% of the human population depend on freshwater resources from mountains

(UNEP-WCMC)

(FAO 2003)

China is the largest country that is more than 50% mountainous

Water (3x) Protection Resource extraction

Global significance of mountain regionsQualitative considerations: Ecosystem goods & services (1/2)

NA:957 MM/Y(640 MM/Y)

SA:1345 MM/Y(1784 MM/Y)

EA:746 MM/Y(552 MM/Y)

AF:887 MM/Y(689 MM/Y)

DATA FROM ADAM AND LETTENMAIER (2003) AND ADAM ET AL., (2005),GLOBAL AVERAGE: EXCLUDING ANTARCTICACOMPLEX TERRAIN: 887 MM/Y;(“FLAT” TERRAIN: 768 MM/Y)(Slide from Rick Lawford, GEWEX)

More precip over complex terrain (except in SA)

Mountains are “Water Towers”

Landslides pose a threat..Zhouqu, 2010

Tourism BiodiversityCarbon storage

Global significance of mountain regionsQualitative considerations: Ecosystem goods & services (2/2)

Mountains are centers of biodiversity

Mountains are centers of tourism

HOW ARE MOUNTAINS DIFFERENT?

• Mountains stick up => habitat diversity and juxtaposition

• Stuff falls/flows down => geomorphology, hydrology => benefits and hazards

• Mountains affect circulation => prediction under future climates

(slide from Andreas Hemp, University of Bayreuth)

Gravity makes mountains dynamic: water, rock, fire...

Gravity makes mountains dynamic: water, rock, fire...

Gravity makes mountains dynamic: water, rock, fire...

Gravity makes mountains dynamic: water, rock, fire...

Some Key CC Impacts in Mountains

• Cryospheric changes: glacial retreat, higher snowline, (melting permafrost)

• Amplitude and timing of water flow (T, T+P)

• Habitat and species movement• Disturbance regimes

20th century warming is more important in the Alps

Rebetez & Reinhard In press

+ 0.57 °C / decade

Te

mp

era

ture

ano

mal

y [°

C]

(slide from Pascal Vittoz and Antoine Guisan, UniL)

Climate scenario for Central Alps

0

50

100

150

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Current climate(1960-2000)

Future climate(2070-2100)

Temperature (°C) Precipitation (mm)

Month MonthFuture climate downscaled based on simulations withregional climate model (CHRM56 A2, Schär et al. 2004)

(slide from Harald Bugmann, ETHZ)

Consequences for floods:the buffering effects of snow

Runoff

Floodlevel

(slide from Martin Beniston, University of Geneva)

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 31

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Possible shifts in snow duration for a projected climatic change in the Alps

255075100125150175200225250275300325350

Snowpackduration[days]

2081-2090

2091-21002071-2080

Säntis:Future climate

Arosa:Current climate

Arosa:Future climate

20

71

-20

80

20

81

-20

90

20

91

-21

00

Mean winter temperatures [°C]

Me

an

win

ter

pre

cipi

tatio

n [m

m/d

ay]

Säntis:Current climate

Ben

iston et al, 2003: T

heoretical and A

pplied Clim

atology

(slide from Martin Beniston, University of Geneva)

L. perenne, +5.8°C by 2100, dispersion: 40 m/yr

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2040

2045

2035

2060

2065

2070

2075

2080

2085

2090

Colonized surface per 5 years

2050

2055

2095

2100

Te

mp

era

ture

  in

cre

as

e [

°K]

Transient plant dispersion with warming

Randin, Engler et al. (in prep)Milleret (2004) Master

MigClim model

(slide from Antoine Guisan, University of Lausanne)

Randin et al. (in prep.)

25 100

% sp turnover by 2100:

Species turnover and extinctions

D. octopetala E. myosuroides L. alpinus

A. elatius

V. tripteris

S. minor

All speciesdifferentin 2100

A1 scenario

win

ner

s

lose

rs

Committed to extinction?

gaining> 200%

201

Number of species(N = 287)

% area lost or gained

-100 0 220

0

130

86

(slide from Antoine Guisan, University of Lausanne)

Schumacher & Bugmann (2006), GCB

Future climate (2080)

Impacts: range shifts and disturbances

http://www.globallandproject.org/

How can we adapt theGLP approach to theThird Pole?

MRI is working with INSTITUTE OF TIBETAN PLATEAU RESEARCH/CAS

http://www.tpe.ac.cn/home

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION