municipality of anchorage department of health and human services air quality program
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Public Review Draft
CARBON MONOXIDE AND PM-10AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY
DETERMINATIONFOR THE
2035 AMATS METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION PLAN
Municipality of AnchorageDepartment of Health and Human Services
Air Quality ProgramApril 2, 2012
What is conformity?
• AMATS must make an affirmative determination that the MTP is consistent with Alaska State Air Quality Control Plan (SIP) and does not interfere with the attainment or maintenance of air quality standards.
• FHWA must concur.
• Federal regulations (40 CFR 93) prescribe how this is to be done.
I get the feeling that there may be more exciting ways to spend my lunch hour.
AMATS Planning Area includes the CO Maintenance Area in the Anchorage bowl and the Eagle River PM-10 Nonattainment Area in “urban” Eagle River.
• Carbon monoxide (CO)– Colorless odorless gas produced
by incomplete combustion– NAAQS = 9 ppm for 8-hour
average– 79% from motor vehicle
emissions, a large portion of which is generated during “cold starts.”
– Highest concentrations on cold, calm winter days during strong temperature inversions.
– Residential areas where warm-up idling is prevalent have highest concentrations.
• PM-10 – Airborne particulate less than 10
microns in diameter– NAAQS = 150 μg/m3 for 24-hour
average– 90% or more from geological
sources• Paved and unpaved road dust
• Natural wind blown silt from glacial river valleys in Mat Su
– Highest concentrations during spring break-up and fall freeze-up.
– Highest concentrations near major paved roadways or unpaved roads.
CO conformity
Trend in 2nd Maximum 8-hour CO Concentration at Anchorage CO Monitoring Stations
1980 - 2010
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
pp
m)
Spenard & Benson Garden Street
Raspberry Road Seward Hwy
Turnagain Blvd
Federal Standard
Motor Vehicle CO Emission Budget
• 156.5 tons per day
• theoretical” estimate of how much CO can be emitted by motor vehicles in the inventory area without violating the NAAQS
– based on measured CO air quality and computer model estimates of emissions in base year 2007
– set out in the Anchorage CO Maintenance Plan (SIP) and approved by the EPA
Emissions in 2015, 2025, and 2035 depend on how much growth there will be in motor vehicle travel and how much CO each vehicle will be emitting.
Will improved emission control technology offset the growth in vehicle travel?
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2007 2015 2025 2035
mot
or v
ehic
le e
mis
sion
s (t
pd)
? ? ?
emissions budget = 156.5 tpd
125.6 tpd
I can’t wait to see how this turns out....
CO Emissions Forecast for MTP
AMATS Transportation Model provides projections of motor vehicle travel activity for 2015, 2025 and 2035
• Uses modified ISER regional population and employment projections in combination with guidance from the MOA Comprehensive Plan to determine where people will live and work and are therefore likely to travel.
• Propensity to travel is based on household income. More trips are generated in high income areas.
• “Overlays” the transportation network envisioned in the MTP for analysis years 2015, 2025 and 2035.
– Model “thinks” like a pipe network. The amount of flow = amount of traffic
– People avoid “pipes” that are congested and do not necessarily take the shortest route between here and there.
– MTP adds or enlarges “pipes,” and provides transportation alternatives (transit, vanpool, carpool, bicycle, pedestrian) to help relieve congestion.
Regional ISER projections weremodified to fit AMATS boundaries
The transportation model is used to identify roadway links that are likely to be congested in the future.
Congestion identified in 2035 “No build” scenario
2015 2025 2035
Population 233,829 250,739 258,510
Households 89,448 99,475 103,956
Employment 153,127 165,485 177,806
VMT 3,365,707 3,910,964 4,316,888
Average Speed (mph) 32.1 33.0 35.6
Vehicle Trips (starts) 731,520 797,556 840,989
Vehicle Trips per Household 8.2 8.0 8.1
Average Trip Distance (miles) 4.6 4.9 5.1
Summary Inputs and Outputs
AMATS Transportation Model
The EPA MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emission Simulation) Model is used to estimate motor vehicle CO emission rates under Anchorage-specific conditions:
•Weekday in January, ambient temperature = 4 ºF
•Anchorage vehicle type and age distribution
•Local gasoline and diesel specifications
•Anchorage distribution of gasoline vs. diesel vs. alternative fuel vehicles
Facility Type
MOVES
Road Type
VMT(miles)
Speed*(mph)
MOVESEmission
Rate(g/mi)
CO(lbs)
Freeway 4 2,097 59.5 6.3 29
Major Arterial 5 854 22.6 6.4 12
Minor Arterial 5 1,839 23.7 6.2 25
Collector 5 144 17.6 7.2 2
Local Streets 5 1,301 15.0 7.4 21
TOTAL -- 6,105 89
Sample computation of CO emissions in one grid for AM period (7 am – 9 am) for analysis year 2035
MOVES summary results
2007 2015 2025 2035
Average Starting Emission Rategrams per trip 120.5 127.6 125.0 124.5
Average Running Emission Rategrams per mile 11.0 8.4 6.6 6.4
Note that the starting emission rate increases by 4% between 2007 and 2035 while the running emission rate drops by 40%.
2007 2015 2025 2035
Average Starting Emission Rategrams per trip 120.5 127.6 125.0 124.5
Average Running Emission Rategrams per mile 11.0 8.4 6.6 6.4
MOVES emission rates are multiplied by transportation model estimates of travel activity to
compute total CO emissions
• Starting emissions = starting emission rate x number of starts 124.5 grams/start x 840,989 starts = 104,703,130 grams = 115.3 tons per day
• Running emissions = running emission rate x vehicle miles traveled 6.4 grams/mile x 4,316,888 miles = 27,628,083 grams = 30.3 tons per day
• Extended idle emissions (long haul trucks) = 0.3 tons per day
TOTAL MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS = 145.8 tons per day
Compute emissions in analysis year 2035:
The AMATS MTP is under budget throughout the 2012 – 2035 planning horizon despite the apparent starting emission rate anomaly.
Projected CO Emissions vs. Budget
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2007 2015 2025 2035
CO
em
issi
on
s (t
pd
)
starting emissions
running emissions
budget = 156.5 tpd
125.6134.2 138.5
145.8
PM-10 conformity
I hope this is even more exciting than the CO stuff.
• No violations of the NAAQS since 1987
• Gravel roads were paved or surfaced with recycled asphalt
• PM-10 “Limited Maintenance Plan” submitted to EPA in 2010 (still under review)
• EPA has approved use of simplified LMP process for this conformity determination
Federal Register notice expected in late April.
0
50
100
150
200
250
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350
400
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
PM
-10
(ug
/m3)
Max 24-hour Concentration
Design Value
NAAQS = 150 ug/m3
Trend in Eagle River PM-10 Concentrations
DV has been below 98 μg/m3 since 2006.
Thus, Eagle River qualifies for LMP option.
PM-10 conformity under LMP option
• No emission budget test necessary because limited maintenance areas determined to have low probability of violating the NAAQS even with anticipated growth in motor vehicle travel.
• LMP conformity requires:
– Affirm annual DV below 98 μg/m3 √
– Timely implementation of transportation control measures (TCMs) √
– MTP cannot interfere with TCMs √
Interagency consultation 40 CFR 93.105 & 93.112
• Requires federal, state and local agencies to review and consult
• Teleconferences held with FHWA, EPA, FTA, ADEC, ADOT&PF, AMATS and MOA
• Minor edits made as a consequence of comments from FHWA and EPA are reflected in public review draft.
• Consultation participants gave “go ahead” to proceed with public review draft during consultation on March 6.
I think staff would like to see a recommendation from you before the public comment period ends on April 9.
AMATS Air Quality Advisory Committee Recommendation
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