ncds and bcs70: the 1958 and 1970 national birth cohort studies
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NCDS and BCS70: The 1958 and 1970
National Birth Cohort Studies
Heather JoshiCentre for Longitudinal Studies
Institute of Education, London Universitywww.cls.ioe.ac.uk/cohorts
NCDS Follow-ups
NCDS Follow-ups and sources of information 1958-2000
PMS NCDS1 NCDS2 NCDS3 EXAMS NCDS4 NCDS5 NCDS6 (1958) (1965) (1969) (1974) (1978) (1981) (1991) (2000) Birth 7 11 16 20 23 33 42
17,733a 16,883 16,835 16,915 16,906 16,457 15,600 15,145
Mother — Parents — Parents — Parents
School — School — School — School
Tests — Tests — Tests
Medical — Medical — Medical — Medical
Subject — Subject — Subject — ———— — Subject — Subject — Subject
Census — ———— — Census
Spouse/ Partner
Motherc
Children
17,414b 15,568 15,503 14,761 14,370 12,537 11,407 11,419
Notes: a: Target Sample - immigrants with appropriate date of birth included for NCDS1-3.
b: Achieved Sample - at least one survey instrument partially completed. c: This could be the Cohort Member, their Spouse, or Partner.
BCS70 Follow-upsBCS70 Follow-ups and sources of information 1970-2000
BBS
(1970) Birth
CHES (1975)
5
CHES (1980)
10 Youthscan
(1986) 16
BCS70 (1996)
26
BCS70 (2000)
30
Mother — Parents — Parents — Parents
School — School
Tests — Tests — Tests
Medical — Medical — Medical — Medical
Subject — Subject — Subject — Subject
16,135a 13,135 14,875 11,628 9,003 11,261
Note: a Achieved Sample – when at least one survey instrument partially completed.
Women labour market states 16-30
1958 COHORT
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29Age
1970 COHORT
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Age
Unemployed
Out of the labour force
Part time work
Full time work
Government training
Full time education
Percentage of years 16-30 spent unemployed, by region
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
North NW Y& H W Mid E Mid E Ang SW S- E London Wales Scot
%
Men BCS70 Women BCS70 Men NCDS Women NCDS
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0 5 10 15 20 25
£ per hour, 2001 prices
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f s
am
ple
Men
Women
Raw pay gap: 37%
Gender pay gap: born 1958
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0 5 10 15 20 25
£ per hour, 2001 prices
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f s
am
ple
Men
Women
Raw pay gap: 20%
Gender pay gap: born 1970
Female to male ratio for selected variables.
Cohort studies,1991 and 2000
0.00
1.00
2.00
Mat
hs a
bility
O leve
l
A leve
l
Diplo
ma
Degre
e
FT wor
k ex
perie
nce
Job
Tenu
re
rati
o NCDS 42NCDS 33BCS70 30
Unequal treatment by wage level: full-timers in the cohorts
Female to male pay ratio adjusted for human capital, by level of wages
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
Bottom Second Middle Fourth Top
Wage quintile
BCS 2000NCDS 1991NCDS 2000
Source
• Unpacking Unequal Pay between Men and Women across Cohort and Lifecycle. Cohort Studies Discussion Paper No 2, Centre for Longitudinal Studies, Institute of Education
• Peter Dolton, LSE• Gerry Makepeace, Cardiff Business School• Heather Joshi , Institute of Education, London
Lifetime migration in and out of Scotland in two birth cohort studies
NCDS BCS70 NCDS BCS70birth to 42 birth to 30 birth to 42 birth to 30
% of Scottish born'Stayers 'in Scotland 961 851 82% 87%Moved out 217 127 18% 13% Moved in 95 101 8% 10%
Scottish born 1178 978
n
Movers and stayers Scotland in NCDS and BCS70
By country of birth and location at 16 : sample nos
NCDS Location at age 42 BCS70 Location at age 30Scotland Rest of GB Total Scotland Rest of GB Total
Born in ScotlandScotland 16 750 118 670 56Not Known 16 200 32 177 22Rest GB 16 11 67 4 49
All Scottish born 961 217 1178 851 127 978Born in Rest of GB
Scotland 16 16 14 47 10Not Known 16 26 2591 10 2003Rest GB 16 53 6951 44 7287
All born in Rest of GB 95 9556 9651 101 9300 9401TOTAL 10829 10379
Highest qualification of movers in and out of Scotland,birth to age 42, 1958 cohort
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Other GB , Other GB9529
Scotland, Scotland 958
Scotland, other GB 216
Other GB, Scotland 95
Net Outflow 121
Location at birth and 42, sample size
0 no quals
1 nvq1/low grade cse
2 nvq2/o levels
3 nvq3/a levels
4 nvq4 - 6/degree +
Highest qualification of movers in and out of Scotland,birth to age 30, 1970 cohort
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
Other GB 0 & 30 9265 Scotland 0 & 30 ,851 Scotland 0, other GB30 127
Other GB 0 , Scotland30 101
Net Outflow 26
Location at birth and 30, sample size
0 no quals
1 nvq1/low grade cse
2 nvq2/o levels
3 nvq3/a levels
4 nvq4 - 6/degree +
Brain Drain?
• Graduates over-represented in both out-flows and in-flows
• In 1958 cohort higher proportion of graduates in smaller inflow means net flow has same composition as resident population
• In 1970 cohort net outflow is small and in opposite directions for different levels of education
Percentage of parents sharing child care in early 30s (female respondents only)
1958 1970
Both parents employed 46 53
One parent employed 24 30
Neither parent employed 52 54
Percentage unhappy in their partnership in early 30s
1958 1970
Men: Married 3 22
Cohabiting 3 18
Women: Married 2 24
Cohabiting 5 21
1946 Cohort
(36 years 1992)
1946 Cohort
(43 years 1989)
1958 Cohort
(33 years 1991)
1958 cohort
(42 years 2000)
1970 cohort
(30 years 2000)
MEN
Depression & anxiety*
8 10 7 14 14
Trouble with nerves etc
8 15 7 15 13
WOMEN
Depression & anxiety*
18 16 12 21 20
Trouble with nerves etc
16 28 19 29 29
*PSE and PSF in 1946 cohort, Malaise in 1958 and 1970 cohorts
Reports (%) of mental illness
1946
cohort (36 years 1982)
1946
cohort (43 years 1989)
1958
cohort (33 years 1991)
1958
cohort (42 years 2000)
1970
cohort (30 years 2000)
MEN
Asthma 3 6 8 10 13
High blood pressure
3 9 5 11 5
WOMEN
Asthma 3 6 10 12 14
High blood pressure
5 13 6 12 10
Reports (%) of physical illnesses
0
10
20
30
40
50
NVQ 4 –NVQ 6
NVQ 2 Noqualifications
Highest qualification
Per
cent
age 1958 cohort
1970 cohort
Experience of ever been arrested in two cohorts by highest qualification: men
Average (mean) childhood height (cm) in relation to father’s social class
Father’s social 1958 cohort at 7 years 1970 cohort at 10 years
class MALES
I 124 140
II 124 140
IIInm 123 138
IIIm 123 138
IV 123 138
V 121 138
All classes 123 139
FEMALES
I 124 139
II 123 139
IIInm 123 139
IIIm 122 138
IV 122 138
V 121 137
All classes 112 139
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