nepal population reconstruction to first hominid 1.5 millions years ago

Amulya Ratna TuladharProfessor of Environmental Sciences

WHEN NEPAL HAD ONLY 1,270 POPULATION…

Today:

26.6 million in 2011

POPULATION OF NEPAL

What was Nepal’s population 100 years ago?

5.6 million

POPULATION OF NEPAL

What was Nepal’s population before that?

Answer:

We do not know, for sure.No census then.

Indirect methods.

POPULATION OF NEPAL

Can we reconstruct Nepal’s population, indirectly,…when Prithvi Narayan Shah

created modern Nepal…. in 1768?

Yes… done by Mark Poffenberger for his PhD in Berkeley, entitled, “Patterns of

Change in the Himalayas”.

POPULATION OF NEPAL

6

NEPAL POPULATION IN ~1750: 3 MILLION0 5 / 0 2 / 2 0 2 3

How to figure out Nepal’s population before Prithvi Narayan’s time?

What was the growth rate of Nepal’s population from Prithvi Narayan’s time

(~1750) to first census of 1911, or 161 yrs?

Answer = 0.38% per year (Harka Gurung, 1971)

POPULATION OF NEPAL

Question:

Can we assume that Nepal’s population was growing at

0.38% per year before Prithvi Narayan’s time in 1750?

POPULATION OF NEPAL

WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

Year Population (Millions)

Average Annual Growth Rate

Doubling Time

1500 473 0.27 258

1800 945 0.42 163

1900 1,654 0.59 118

1920 1,860 0.61 113

1940 2,300 1.05 65

What was the world’s population growing at that time… 1800-1920?

Answer = 0.57% per year

What was the world’s population growing at that time… 1500-1800?

Answer = 0.23% per year

POPULATION OF NEPAL

Nepal 1750-1911 0.38%

World 1800-1920 0.57%World 1500-1800 0.23%

Conclusion: World population growth rate was nearly half for period of 300 years

preceding 1800.

POPULATION OF NEPAL

Period of rapid population growthBegan 1750

From 1750 to 1900 Average annual rate of growth: ~0.5%From 1900 to 1950 Average annual rate of growth: ~0.8%From 1950 to 2000 Average annual rate of growth: ~1.7%

Reasons for rapid growth

Advances in medicineAdvances in nutrition

GEOMETRIC GROWTH：HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH

In absence of solid data on Nepal, one choice is to assume that Nepal’s population growth rate for 300 years before 1750 was

nearly half that of 1750-1911.. I.e.

For 1750-1911 = 0.38 %1450-1750 = 0.19 % (Half of 0.38%) ?

POPULATION OF NEPAL

18301930196019751987199820092020203320462100

0123456789

1011

1312

14

Billio

ns o

f peo

ple

2-5 millionYears ago

7,000BC

6,000BC

5,000BC

4,000BC

3,000BC

2,000BC

1,000BC

1AD

1,000AD

2,000AD

3,000AD

Year

4,000AD

Fig. The world population explosion.

Prior to agriculture and domestication of animals (~10,000 B.C.)

Average annual rate of growth: ~0.0001%

After the establishment of agriculture300 million people by 1 A.D.800 million by 1750

Average annual rate of growth: ~0.1%

GEOMETRIC GROWTH：HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH

For 1750-1911 = 0.38 % 1450-1750 = 0.19 % (Half of 0.38%) ?

Better take the average trend for broader time period, e.g.

Industrial Era 1750-2012 = 0.5-1.7%Agricultural Era 10,000 BC-1750 = 0.1%Stone Age, 2-3 millions yrs ago, – 10,000 BC = 0.0001%

POPULATION OF NEPAL

Strategy for Population Reconstruction:

Reduce population growth rate systematically to achieve an average

of 0.1% for Agricultural Era and 0.0001% for Stone Age unless better

estimates are available.

POPULATION OF NEPAL

Systematic Population Growth Rate Reduction

0.38%0.35%0.30%0.25%0.20%0.15%0.10%0.05%0.01%

0.001%0.0001%

POPULATION OF NEPAL

Next:Use the systematically reduced

population growth rates to estimate the time to HALF the population, with the

formula:

½ = 72/r, where “r” = population change rate

POPULATION OF NEPAL

½ = 72/r, where “r” = population change rate

r Half Time in years

Date Reduction (1750 Minus -190

yr etc…)0.38% 190 1560 AD0.35% 205 1355 AD0.30% 240 1115 AD0.25% 288 827 AD0.20% 360 467 AD0.15% 480 13 BC0.10% 720 733 BC0.05% 1440 2173 BC0.01% 7200 9373 BC0.001% 72000 81373 BC

0.0001% 720000 801373 BC

0.0001% 720000 1521373 BC

DateTime from Present = 0 Total Population

2011 0 266208092001 10 231514231991 20 184910971981 30 150228391971 40 115559831961 50 94129961952 59 82566251941 70 62836491930 81 55325741920 91 55737881911 100 5,638,7491750 261 30633001544 467 15000001304 707 7500001020 991 325000660 1351 162500180 1831 81250-540 2551 40625-1980 3991 20312.5-9180 11191 10156.25-81180 83191 5078.125-730000 732011 2536.0625-1450000 1452011 1269.5312

10.00100.001,000.0010,000.00100,000.001,000,000.0010,000,000.000

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

Time from 1.45 m yr ago to 10 yr ago 2001

Popu

lati

onPOPULATION OF NEPAL 1.45

MYA TO 10 YA, 2001

05/02/2023

23

MIGRATION PATTERNS IN NEPAL

0200040006000800010000120000

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Time in years from present

popu

latio

n

HOMO SAPIENS NEPALI POPULATION FROM AGRICULTURAL ERA 12 K YRS AGO TO

FIRST HISTORIC RECORD IN CHANGU

NEPAL

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Series1; 325,000

750,000

1,500,000

3,063,300

Series1

POPULATION IN RECORDED HISTORY 1020-1750

501001502002503000

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

Nepal Population 1750-1950

0102030405060700

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

Time in Years from Present = 0

Popu

lati

on in

Mod

ern

Nep

alPOPULATION IN MODERN

NEPAL1950-2011

10.00100.001,000.0010,000.00100,000.001,000,000.0010,000,000.001,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

100,000,000

Time from 1.45 m yr ago to 10 yr ago 2001

Popu

lati

onPOPULATION OF NEPAL 1.45 MYA TO

10 YA, 2010: BOTH AXIS LOGARITHMIC

Nepal has increased its population from 1,270 to 26,602,308 in 2011, from 1.45 million years ago when Homo erectus, the hand axe maker that paleontologist Gudrun Corvinus discovered in Dandi

River in Nawalparasi in 1980s to Homo sapiens, the modern man who has

developed Agricultural and Industrial Revolution in the world.

CONCLUSION

The population density of Nepalese has increased from:

0.009 people per km2, 1.45 million years ago

to 181/km2 in 2011

CONCLUSION