nepal population reconstruction to first hominid 1.5 millions years ago
TRANSCRIPT
Amulya Ratna TuladharProfessor of Environmental Sciences
WHEN NEPAL HAD ONLY 1,270 POPULATION…
Today:
26.6 million in 2011
POPULATION OF NEPAL
What was Nepal’s population 100 years ago?
5.6 million
POPULATION OF NEPAL
What was Nepal’s population before that?
Answer:
We do not know, for sure.No census then.
Indirect methods.
POPULATION OF NEPAL
Can we reconstruct Nepal’s population, indirectly,…when Prithvi Narayan Shah
created modern Nepal…. in 1768?
Yes… done by Mark Poffenberger for his PhD in Berkeley, entitled, “Patterns of
Change in the Himalayas”.
POPULATION OF NEPAL
6
NEPAL POPULATION IN ~1750: 3 MILLION0 5 / 0 2 / 2 0 2 3
How to figure out Nepal’s population before Prithvi Narayan’s time?
What was the growth rate of Nepal’s population from Prithvi Narayan’s time
(~1750) to first census of 1911, or 161 yrs?
Answer = 0.38% per year (Harka Gurung, 1971)
POPULATION OF NEPAL
Question:
Can we assume that Nepal’s population was growing at
0.38% per year before Prithvi Narayan’s time in 1750?
POPULATION OF NEPAL
WORLD POPULATION GROWTH
Year Population (Millions)
Average Annual Growth Rate
Doubling Time
1500 473 0.27 258
1800 945 0.42 163
1900 1,654 0.59 118
1920 1,860 0.61 113
1940 2,300 1.05 65
What was the world’s population growing at that time… 1800-1920?
Answer = 0.57% per year
What was the world’s population growing at that time… 1500-1800?
Answer = 0.23% per year
POPULATION OF NEPAL
Nepal 1750-1911 0.38%
World 1800-1920 0.57%World 1500-1800 0.23%
Conclusion: World population growth rate was nearly half for period of 300 years
preceding 1800.
POPULATION OF NEPAL
Period of rapid population growthBegan 1750
From 1750 to 1900 Average annual rate of growth: ~0.5%From 1900 to 1950 Average annual rate of growth: ~0.8%From 1950 to 2000 Average annual rate of growth: ~1.7%
Reasons for rapid growth
Advances in medicineAdvances in nutrition
GEOMETRIC GROWTH:HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH
In absence of solid data on Nepal, one choice is to assume that Nepal’s population growth rate for 300 years before 1750 was
nearly half that of 1750-1911.. I.e.
For 1750-1911 = 0.38 %1450-1750 = 0.19 % (Half of 0.38%) ?
POPULATION OF NEPAL
18301930196019751987199820092020203320462100
0123456789
1011
1312
14
Billio
ns o
f peo
ple
2-5 millionYears ago
7,000BC
6,000BC
5,000BC
4,000BC
3,000BC
2,000BC
1,000BC
1AD
1,000AD
2,000AD
3,000AD
Year
4,000AD
Fig. The world population explosion.
Prior to agriculture and domestication of animals (~10,000 B.C.)
Average annual rate of growth: ~0.0001%
After the establishment of agriculture300 million people by 1 A.D.800 million by 1750
Average annual rate of growth: ~0.1%
GEOMETRIC GROWTH:HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH
For 1750-1911 = 0.38 % 1450-1750 = 0.19 % (Half of 0.38%) ?
Better take the average trend for broader time period, e.g.
Industrial Era 1750-2012 = 0.5-1.7%Agricultural Era 10,000 BC-1750 = 0.1%Stone Age, 2-3 millions yrs ago, – 10,000 BC = 0.0001%
POPULATION OF NEPAL
Strategy for Population Reconstruction:
Reduce population growth rate systematically to achieve an average
of 0.1% for Agricultural Era and 0.0001% for Stone Age unless better
estimates are available.
POPULATION OF NEPAL
Systematic Population Growth Rate Reduction
0.38%0.35%0.30%0.25%0.20%0.15%0.10%0.05%0.01%
0.001%0.0001%
POPULATION OF NEPAL
Next:Use the systematically reduced
population growth rates to estimate the time to HALF the population, with the
formula:
½ = 72/r, where “r” = population change rate
POPULATION OF NEPAL
½ = 72/r, where “r” = population change rate
r Half Time in years
Date Reduction (1750 Minus -190
yr etc…)0.38% 190 1560 AD0.35% 205 1355 AD0.30% 240 1115 AD0.25% 288 827 AD0.20% 360 467 AD0.15% 480 13 BC0.10% 720 733 BC0.05% 1440 2173 BC0.01% 7200 9373 BC0.001% 72000 81373 BC
0.0001% 720000 801373 BC
0.0001% 720000 1521373 BC
DateTime from Present = 0 Total Population
2011 0 266208092001 10 231514231991 20 184910971981 30 150228391971 40 115559831961 50 94129961952 59 82566251941 70 62836491930 81 55325741920 91 55737881911 100 5,638,7491750 261 30633001544 467 15000001304 707 7500001020 991 325000660 1351 162500180 1831 81250-540 2551 40625-1980 3991 20312.5-9180 11191 10156.25-81180 83191 5078.125-730000 732011 2536.0625-1450000 1452011 1269.5312
10.00100.001,000.0010,000.00100,000.001,000,000.0010,000,000.000
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
Time from 1.45 m yr ago to 10 yr ago 2001
Popu
lati
onPOPULATION OF NEPAL 1.45
MYA TO 10 YA, 2001
05/02/2023
23
MIGRATION PATTERNS IN NEPAL
0200040006000800010000120000
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Time in years from present
popu
latio
n
HOMO SAPIENS NEPALI POPULATION FROM AGRICULTURAL ERA 12 K YRS AGO TO
FIRST HISTORIC RECORD IN CHANGU
NEPAL
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Series1; 325,000
750,000
1,500,000
3,063,300
Series1
POPULATION IN RECORDED HISTORY 1020-1750
501001502002503000
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
Nepal Population 1750-1950
0102030405060700
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
Time in Years from Present = 0
Popu
lati
on in
Mod
ern
Nep
alPOPULATION IN MODERN
NEPAL1950-2011
10.00100.001,000.0010,000.00100,000.001,000,000.0010,000,000.001,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Time from 1.45 m yr ago to 10 yr ago 2001
Popu
lati
onPOPULATION OF NEPAL 1.45 MYA TO
10 YA, 2010: BOTH AXIS LOGARITHMIC
Nepal has increased its population from 1,270 to 26,602,308 in 2011, from 1.45 million years ago when Homo erectus, the hand axe maker that paleontologist Gudrun Corvinus discovered in Dandi
River in Nawalparasi in 1980s to Homo sapiens, the modern man who has
developed Agricultural and Industrial Revolution in the world.
CONCLUSION
The population density of Nepalese has increased from:
0.009 people per km2, 1.45 million years ago
to 181/km2 in 2011
CONCLUSION