nuclear power: the four transitions

Leonam dos Santos Guimarães

443 operating NPPs today443 operating NPPs today

Producing 11% of world electricityProducing 11% of world electricity

Taking part of theTaking part of theEnergy matrix ofEnergy matrix of31 countries31 countries

Without forgetting ...Without forgetting ...

248 research reactors in 56 countries248 research reactors in 56 countries

and 180 reactors moving 140 shipsand 180 reactors moving 140 shipsand submarines in 6 countries ...and submarines in 6 countries ...

67 NPPS being built in 15 countries67 NPPS being built in 15 countries2005 - 2015: 41 new connections to the grid2005 - 2015: 41 new connections to the grid

ANGRA 3ANGRA 3

Brazil:Brazil: 2.400 kwh per capita 2.400 kwh per capitaPortugal: 4.800Portugal: 4.800China:China: 1.900 1.900

Manaus

Brasília

São PauloItaipu

Porto Alegre

Fortaleza

Salvador

Rio de Janeiro

BeloHorizonte

Recife

Angra

4.000 4.000 kmkm4.000 4.000 kmkm

HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITIONHYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION

• the expansion of a large interconnected power system, with significant predominance of hydro renewable primary source requires an increasing thermal contribution due to:

• gradual exhaustion of the economic and environmentally viable hydro potential

• loss of self-regulation capacity due to lower water storage capacity in the reservoirs related to the system load growth.

• Canadian electric system over

the past 50 years holds many

similarities with the situation of

the Brazilian over last 15 years.

• From a contribution of over 90%

in 1960, hydroelectricity share

in Canada declined steadily until

1990, stabilizing around 60%.

HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITIONHYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION

Hydro-Thermal TransitionHydro-Thermal Transition

INSTALLED CAPACITY IN BRAZILINSTALLED CAPACITY IN BRAZIL

MONTHLY MAX/MIN THERMAL MONTHLY MAX/MIN THERMAL GENERATION IN BRAZILGENERATION IN BRAZIL

HYDRO-THERMAL HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITIONTRANSITION

STORED ENERGY x HYDRO INSTALLED CAPACITYSTORED ENERGY x HYDRO INSTALLED CAPACITY

Evolution of energy storageEvolution of energy storageEvolution of energy storageEvolution of energy storageDecennial Expansion Plan PDE-20210

HYDRO POTENTIALHYDRO POTENTIALTECHNICAL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE

150/180 GW from 260 GW(100 GW already used)

Hidro

EXPANSION POST-2030EXPANSION POST-2030

• Mix: natural gas (depending on the amount and cost of pre-salt), coal (depending on the

viability of CCS and clean coal) and nuclear (public acceptance)

• Renewables (biomass, wind, solar) and expansion of energy efficiency programs

(increasing marginal expansion costs) will be an essential supplement

UNIQUE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES OF NEW RENEWABLES IN BRAZIL:

•Wind – Solar match

•Wind – Hydro match

• Energy storage in reservoirs

• Saving water and

• Enhancing hydroelectric load following and self-regulation (long term) capabilities

NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS

2) Southeast 2.000 MW

1) Northeast 2.000 MW

operation: 2025 - 2030operation: 2025 - 2030

EPRI SITTING CRITERIAEPRI SITTING CRITERIAGeographic Information SystemsGeographic Information Systems

National Energy Plan 2030

National Energy Plan 2030

• Plant Parameter Plant Parameter EnvelopeEnvelope– RFIs to suppliersRFIs to suppliers– Early Site Permit ReportEarly Site Permit Report

• Brazilian Utility Brazilian Utility RequirementsRequirements– URD/EUR ModelURD/EUR Model

• Business ModelBusiness Model– Public-Private PartnershipPublic-Private Partnership

• Economic and Economic and Financial FeasabilityFinancial Feasability

• Social and Ecomomic Social and Ecomomic ImpactsImpacts

National Energy Plan 2030

REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

INSPIRED BYINSPIRED BYTVA (EUA)TVA (EUA)

A NEW BUSINESS MODELA NEW BUSINESS MODELRisk sharingRisk sharing

BUILDING NEW NUCLEARBUILDING NEW NUCLEARTHE CHALLENGES AHEADTHE CHALLENGES AHEAD

Public attitudes • Government leadership• Public opinion at the national level• Local level opinion• Fukushima• Building public support• Trust, understanding of risk, and

risk governance• Community benefit

Technology Selection• In operation x construction x design• FOAK x NOAK• Passive x Active Safety

Financing new nuclear • Where will the money come from?• Barriers to raising finance• Alternative approaches

Supply chain and skills • Potential for bottlenecks and delays• Opportunities for Brazilian businesses• Skills

Business Model• Market insertion (commercialization)• Ownership of nuclear power stations• State x Private• National x Foreigner

Leonam GuimarãesLeonam Guimarães