numbers need context

Context Numbers need

Although not everyone might agree, Statistics are…

Although not everyone might agree, Statistics are…

Interesting

Although not everyone might agree, Statistics are…

Interesting Educational

Although not everyone might agree, Statistics are…

Interesting Educational Important

But it can often be hard to understand them without CONTEXT

Our media abounds with context-less numbers

Let’s take a look at a few…

“Bacon increases risk of colorectal cancer by 20%”

“Bacon increases risk of colorectal cancer by 20%”

“1 extra unit of alcohol a day increases a woman’s risk of breast cancer by 12%”

“Bacon increases risk of colorectal cancer by 20%”

“1 extra unit of alcohol a day increases a woman’s risk of breast cancer by 12%”

“Just 2 units of alcohol a day reduces risk of heart disease by 17%”

But what do the percentages really mean in real life?

And is there a more relevant way we could

be describing this information

“Bacon increases risk of Colorectal cancer by 20%”

But just how bad is that?

Lets assume that ordinarily 5 out of 100 people develop Colorectal cancer.

Therefore if all 100 ate 3 extra rashers every day... The number could rise to six

Therefore if all 100 ate 3 extra rashers every day... The number could rise to six

So therefore…

So therefore… Bacon increases risk of Colorectal cancer by 20%

So therefore… Bacon increases risk of Colorectal cancer by 20%

Is the exact same as saying

So therefore… Bacon increases risk of Colorectal cancer by 20%

Is the exact same as saying

About 1 extra case per 100 people

Next up…

“One extra unit of alcohol a day increases a woman's risk of breast cancer by 12%”

But just how bad is that?

Let’s assume about 10 out of 100 women have breast cancer in a lifetime

If all 100 drink an extra unit a day, that number rises to 11.

If all 100 drink an extra unit a day, that number rises to 11.

So therefore…

So therefore…

One extra unit of alcohol a day increases a woman's risk of breast cancer by 12%”

So therefore…

One extra unit of alcohol a day increases a woman's risk of breast cancer by 12%”

Is the exact same as saying

So therefore…

One extra unit of alcohol a day increases a woman's risk of breast cancer by 12%”

Is the exact same as saying

About 1 extra case per 100 people

And Finally…

“Just two units a day reduces risk of heart disease by 17%”

But just how GOOD is that?

About 32 out of 100 women have coronary heart disease in a lifetime.

If all 100 were to drink 2 units of alcohol every day… that number would fall to 27

If all 100 were to drink 2 units of alcohol every day… that number would fall to 27

So therefore…

So therefore… Just two units a day reduces risk of heart disease by 17%

So therefore… Just two units a day reduces risk of heart disease by 17%

Is the exact same as saying

So therefore… Just two units a day reduces risk of heart disease by 17%

Is the exact same as saying

About 5 fewer cases per 100 people

So we have a little problem

Depending on the story

20% can equal 1 person in 100

20% can equal 1 person in 100

12% can equal 1 person in 100

20% can equal 1 person in 100

12% can equal 1 person in 100

17% can equal 5 people in 100

So…

Percentage figures without CONTEXT are meaningless and can often misleading

When talking about health matters it isn’t enough to deal with percentages

Think about number of lives affected

And…

We must hold our media to account and ensure that journalists do not go for the FLASHY, SHINY and TRENDY (not to mention misleading) sounding story rather than the more relevant and helpful one...

Because…

Those… “Who might rely on the news for guidance, deserve something more relevant”

(M. Blastland)

You can find me at:

www.clearpreso.com

www.twitter.com/clearpreso