optimising distributed generation and energy storage€¦ · optimising distributed generation and...

Optimising distributed generation and energy storage

ADD BUSINESS UNIT/FLAGSHIP NAME

Dr Alex Wonhas

2XEP, 3 April 2014

ENERGY FLAGSHIP

Do you remember 1976?

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Australia’s Future Grid Forum• Long-term orientation to 2050 to demonstrate

key policy and technology choices not constrained by near term electoral cycles

• Whole-of-system to provide credible projections and quantitative analytics especially of the role of networks

• Industry-led to enable bold and informed discussion that examines benefits and drawbacks of different outlooks

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Participants Generators

TNSPs

DNSPs

Government & Regulators

Energy Retailers

End­users, NGOs & Others

Suppliers / Business

ACOSSAMIRACECCEFCEECGrattan InstituteSmart Grid AustThe Climate InstituteTotal Environment CtrUniversity of Sydney

Stanwell CorporationHydro TasmaniaESAA

GEAlstomAmpControlErnst & YoungLandis+GyrSiemensStockland

DRETDCCEE

AERAEMCAEMO

ARENABREE

State Govt: Qld, SA & VicAust Local Govt Assoc

Grid Australia: ElectranetSP AusnetPowerlinkTransendTransgridWestern Power

AusgridAurora Energy CitipowerEnergexErgon EnergySA Power NtwksWestern Power

ERAAAGLOrigin Energy

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Demand model

ESM TNEP 2­4­C DiSCoM

Customer impact

model

Reporting

GALLM

Modelling framework

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1.Further electricity price rises are expected, even without a carbon price

2.The electricity system may transition from centralised to decentralised structure

3.Optimising energy efficiency, distributed generation, energy storage and the use of cost competitive gas can maintain energy affordability

Key messages

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1. Further electricity price rises expected

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

20

13

$/M

Wh

Scenario 1: 'Set and forget' Scenario 2: 'Rise of the prosumer'

Scenario 3: 'Leaving the grid' Scenario 4: 'Renewables thrive'

Scenario 1 with zero carbon price Scenario 1 with high carbon price

Scenario 1 with uncertain carbon price

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• Disconnecting from the grid as a residential consumer is projected to be economically viable from around 2030 to 2040 when independent power systems are expected to be able to match retail prices of between 35 c/kWh and 40 c/kWh as battery costs fall.

• On­site generation is projected to reach between 19 per cent and 46 per cent of total generation by 2050, up from 8 per cent today

• Network utilisation might decrease as a result of disconnection, despite efforts in managing peak demand

2. The electricity system may transition from centralised to decentralised structure

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046

%

Scenario 1: 'Set and forget'

Scenario 2: 'Rise of the prosumer'

Scenario 3: 'Leaving the grid'

Scenario 4: 'Renewables thrive'

Onsite generation share of supply

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Projected consumption – all connected customers, taking away all DG supply

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046

TWh

Scenario 1: 'Set and forget'

Scenario 2: 'Rise of the prosumer'

Scenario 3: 'Leaving the grid'

Scenario 4: 'Renewables thrive'

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3. Optimising energy efficiency, distributed generation, energy storage and cost competitive gas can maintain affordability

0

4

8

12

16

20

Average earner, 2030 Average earner, 2050 Pensioner, 2030 Pensioner, 2050

%

2013 electricity bill (6000 kWh/yr)

Scenario 1: 'Set and forget'

Scenario 2: 'Rise of the prosumer'

Scenario 3: 'Leaving the grid'

Scenario 4: 'Renewables thrive'

0.3% p.a. reduction in electricity intensity of households

0.7% p.a. reduction in electricity intensity of households

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Energy FlagshipPaul Graham

Chief Economist

t +61 2 4960 6061e paul.graham@csiro.auw www.csiro.au/energy

ENERGY FLAGSHIP

Thank youEnergy FlagshipAlex Wonhas

Flagship Director

t +61 2 9490 5059e alex.wonhas@csiro.auw www.csiro.au/energy

Energy FlagshipMark Paterson

FGF Chair

t +61 4 5984 1006e mark.paterson@csiro.auw www.csiro.au/energy