part 3 early warning: the five pillars of disaster resilience

EXAMPLE 4: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• MEMPHIS, TN

(USA) FLOOD

THREAT: “IN THE

MOMENT” FACIL-

ITATION OF

EVACUATION

AND/OR SITE-

SPECIFIC PRE-

PAREDNESS

THE FIVE PILLARS OF

DISASTER RESILIENCE

Part 3: Early Warning

YOUR

NATION

DATA BASES

AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS:GROUND SHAKING

GROUND FAILURE

SURFACE FAULTING

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

TSUNAMI RUN UP

AFTERSHOCKS

•MONITORING

•HAZARD MAPS

•INVENTORY

•VULNERABILITY

•LOCATIONR

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

BOOKS OF

KNOWLEDGE

•PREPAREDNESS

•PROTECTION

•EARLY WARNING

•EM RESPONSE

•RECOVERY

5 PILLARS OF DISASTER

RESILIENCE

DISASTER RESILIENCE IS A FAILED

POLICY WITHOUT THE ADOPTION AND

IMPLEMENTATION OF FIVE

INTEGRATED POLICIES

(i.e., The Five Pillars of Disaster

Resilience)

WHAT IS PREPAREDNESS, THE

FIRST PILLAR?

(Preparedness is

a state of readiness on individual,

urban, sub-regional, and national

scales that is sufficient to keep the

disaster agents of a natural hazard

from causing a disaster

WHAT IS PROTECTION, THE

SECOND PILLAR?

(Protection is

a mandated state of robustness and

strength for important buildings and

essential - critical infrastructure

to prevent loss of function when a

natural hazard ocurs

EARLY WARNING, THE THIRD

PILLAR,

IS ALSO ESSENTIAL

FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE

WHAT IS EARLY WARNING?

(Early Warning is

a state of monitoring and messaging

“in the moment” that activates

evacuation plans to save lives and

accelerates site-specific

preparedness to protect property

KEY ELEMENTS OF

MONITORING

• Land-, air-, ocean-, and satellite- based

instrument packages and systems that

monitor signals in real time related to

the creation, formation, movement, and

changes of the potential disaster

agents of hurricanes, typhoons,

cyclones, earthquakes and tsunamis,

volcanic eruptions, and wildfires.

KEY ELEMENTS OF

MONITORING (continued)

• The data on the creation, formation,

and movement of potential disaster

agents generated by hurricanes and

typhoons, earthquakes and tsunamis,

volcanic eruptions, and wildfires are

transmitted to analysis centers for

analysis and messaging, as

appropriate, on the perceived threats.

KEY ELEMENTS OF MESSAGING

• A CREDIBLE SOURCE: e.g., National

Hurricane Centers; Tsunami Warning

Center. others

• THE MESSAGE: e.g., The threat, where

and when it will happen; actions that

are appropriate to go out of harm’s way,

or, if not evacuating, to accelerate

increased preparedness

KEY ELEMENTS OF MESSAGING

• COMMUNICATION CHANNELS: satellite

–based, real-time, electronic messaging

processes that connect the data

analysis centers to institutions in every

nation as well as global media outlets.

• THE RECEIVERS: Some, but not all of

the people who receive the message,

will understand and respond.

EXAMPLES OF PEOPLE

TYPICALLY EVACUATED

• PEOPLE LIVING IN THE ”RED DANGER

ZONES”

• SCHOOL CHILDREN

• THE ELDERLY AND HANDICAPPED

• PATIENTS IN HOSPITALS,

• TOURISTS

• HOMELESS

EXAMPLES OF THINGS

TYPICALLY EVACUATED

• FISHING BOATS

• NAVAL SHIPS

• MILITARY AIRCRAFT

EXAMPLES OF SITE-SPECIFIC

“ACCELERATED PREPAREDNESS”

• HOUSES, SCHOOLS, AND HOSPITALS

IN THE ”RED DANGER ZONE”

• BUSINESSES AND HOTELS IN THE

”RED DANGER ZONES”

THE GOAL

DEMANDS ON

COMMUNITY

DISASTER

RESILIENCE:

CAPABILITIES OF

COMMUNITY

REALITY

UNANTICIPATED

DEMANDS ON

COMMUNITY

LACK OF DISASTER

RESILIENCE

INSUFFICIENT EARLY

WARNING BEFORE A

NATURAL HAZARD

STRIKES

ANY COMMUNITY CAN

INCREASE ITS STATE-OF-

MONITORING AND

MESSAGING ON THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER

AGENTS OF ANY NATURAL

HAZARD

THE STATE-OF-MONITORING

AND MESSAGING IN “THE

MOMENT” INCREASES AS A

COMMUNITY’S CAPABILITY TO

UNDERSTAND

WHAT WILL LIKELY HAPPEN

INCREASES

NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH

EVACUATION IS TYPICAL

FLOODS

HURRICANES

TYPHOONS

TSUNAMIS

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

WILDFIRES

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR

SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW

BEMEFIT/COST FOR

PROTECTING PROPERTY

GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT

OF HARM’S WAY

EXAMPLE 1: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• HURRICANE “IKE”

FROM THE ISS:

“IN THE MOMENT”

FACILITATION OF

EVACUATION

AND/OR SITE-

SPECIFIC

PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 2: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• CHILE: “IN THE

MOMENT” FACIL-

ITATION OF

EVACUATION

AND/OR SITE-

SPECIFIC

PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 3: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• INDONESIA

TSUNAMI: “IN THE

MOMENT” FACIL-

ITATION OF

EVACUATION

AND/OR SITE-

SPECIFIC

PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 4: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• MEMPHIS, TN

(USA) FLOOD

THREAT: “IN THE

MOMENT” FACIL-

ITATION OF

EVACUATION

AND/OR SITE-

SPECIFIC PRE-

PAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 5: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• AUSTRALIA

2006’S CYCLONE

TRACKS: “IN THE

MOMENT” FACIL-

ITATION OF

EVACUATION

AND/OR SITE-

SPECIFIC

PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 6: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• AUSTRALIA

CYCLONE HAMISH:

“IN THE MOMENT”

FACILITATION OF

EVACUATION

AND/OR SITE-

SPECIFIC

PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 7: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• ATLANTIC BASIN

2012’s STORM

TRACKS: “IN THE

MOMENT” FACIL-

ITATION OF

EVACUATION

AND/OR SITE-

SPECIFIC

PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 8: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• PADANG, INDO-

NESIA FLOODING:

“IN THE MOMENT”

FACILITATION OF

EVACUATION AND/OR

SITE-SPECIFIC

PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 9: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• BRISBANE AUS-

TRALIA FLOODING:

“IN THE MOMENT”

FACILITATION OF

EVACUATION

AND/OR SITE-

SPECIFIC

PREPAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 10: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• MYANMAR CYCLONE

NARGIS: “IN THE

MOMENT” EARLY

WARNING FAILED;

NO EVACUATION

AND NO SITE-

SPECIFIC PREP-

AREDNESS

EXAMPLE 11: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• MYANMAR CY-

CLONE NARGIS:

“AFTER THE

MOMENT” EVAC-

UATION OF THE

HOMELESS SUR-

VIVORS

EXAMPLE 12: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• MYANMAR CYCLONE

NARGIS: “AFTERTHE MOMENT”

EVACUATION OF

SURVIVORS IN “RED

ZONE.”

EXAMPLE 13: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• AMERICAN SAMOA

TSUNAMI: “IN THE

MOMENT” FACIL-

ITATION OF

EVACUATION OF

SURVIVORS IN “RED

ZONE”AND/OR SITE-

SPECIFIC PREP-

AREDNESS

EXAMPLE 14: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• CHILE 2012 TSUNAMI

TRAVEL PATH: “IN

THE MOMENT”

FACILITATION OF

EVACUATION OF

PEOPLE IN “RED

ZONES”AND/OR

SITE-SPECIFIC PRE-

PAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 15: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• NIGERIA 2012

FLOOD: “IN THE

MOMENT” FACIL-

ITATION OF

EVACUATION OF

PEOPLE IN “RED

ZONE.”

EXAMPLE 16: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• NORTH DAKOTA

(USA) FLOOD: “IN

THE MOMENT”

FACILITATION OF

“RED ZONE” SITE-

SPECIFIC PREP-

AREDNESS (SAND

BAG PREPARATION)

EXAMPLE 17: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• CORPUS CHRISTI, TX

(USA) TROPICAL

STORM DOLLY: “IN

THE MOMENT”

FACILITATION OF

“RED ZONE” SITE-

SPECIFIC PRE-

PAREDNESS

EXAMPLE 18: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• NORTH CAROLINA

(USA) HURRICANE

EARL: “IN THE

MOMENT” FACIL-

ITATION OF

EVACUATION FROM

OUTER BANKS

EXAMPLE 19: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• 2009’s TYPHOON

KETSANA: “IN THE

MOMENT” FACIL-

ITATION OF

EVACUATION OF

PEOPLE IN “RED

ZONE” TO A GYMN

EXAMPLE 20: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• ATHENS GREECE

2009’s WILDFIRE:“IN

THE MOMENT”

FACILITATION OF

EVACUATION OF

PEOPLE IN THE

“RED ZONE.

EXAMPLE 22: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• JAPAN 2011’S

TSUNAMI:“IN THE

MOMENT”

FACILITATION OF

EVACUATION OF

PEOPLE IN THE

“RED ZONE WAS

ONLY 45 MINUTES

LONG.

EXAMPLE 21: A NEED FOR

EARLY WARNING

• MEXICO 2013’s

HURRICANE MANUEL:

“IN THE MOMENT”

FACILITATION OF

EVACUATION OF

TOURISTS.

CONCLUSION

With Today’s Books of

Knowledge, Innovative Capacity

Building to

Improve Early Warning for

Floods, Hurricanes, Typhoons, Volc

anic Eruptions, and Wildfires is

possible.