pathways to s oot-free and zero emission bus fleets in india• undertake feasibility studies and...

Pathways to S oot-Free and Zero Emission Bus Fleets in India

R ay Minjares , C lean Air P rogram

8th B us World C onferenc e on S us tainable P ublic T rans port

30 A ug us t 2018

B eng aluru, India

The International C ouncil on C lean Transportation

S an FranciscoWashington, DC

Berlin

Beijing

to improve the environmental performance and energy effic iency of road, marine, and air trans portation, in order to mitigate climate change and benefit public health.

Diesel Engines are a Key Target

“The scientific evidence was compelling and the Working Group’s

conclusion was unanimous: diesel engine exhaust causes lung cancer in humans.”

-Dr. C hristopher Portier

International Agency for Research on C ancer. (2012, J une 12). IARC : Diesel Engine Exhaust C arcinogenic. J NC I J ournal of the National C ancer Institute. Lyon, France: World Health O rganization. doi:10.1093/jnci/djs034

Buses25%

O ther Vehicles75%

Annual PM2.5 Emissions

Buses represent 1 percent of the on-road vehicle fleet but 25 percent of on-road PM2.5 emissions

Miller, J .; Minjares, R .; Dallmann, T. R .; J in, L. F inancing the T rans ition to S oot-F ree Urban B us F leets in 20 Megacities ; http://www.theicct.org/publications/financing-trans ition-soot-free-urban-bus -fleets -20-megacities Washington, DC, 2017; pp 1–49.

BS VI Engines Deliver S oot-Free Emissions

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Stages of Black Carbon Emissions Control Based on European Regulatory Approach in

Urban Bus Fleets

Source: COPERT Emissions Model

Mexico C ity

Bogotá

Lima

S antiagoBuenos Aires

São Paulo J ohannesburg S ydney

Manila

J akarta

Dhaka

Bangkok

Istanbul

C asablanca

Addis Ababa

NairobiDar es S alaam

Abidjan

Accra

Lagos

IC C T-UN Environment S upport to More than 20 Megacities to S hift to S oot Free Urban Bus Fleets

Bangalore

G lobal Industry Partnership on S oot-Free C lean Bus Fleets

1. C ommit to make available soot-free engine technology in all 20 targeted cities by 2018

2. Agree to provide a list of soot-free bus models available to each city

3. Announce this commitment publicly

4. Publicly report the number of soot-free buses sold

5. Agree to provide the name and point of contact designated to each city

6. Agree to update this information on an annual basis

http://www.ccacoalition.org/en/news/bus-manufacturers-commit-bring-cleaner-‘soot-free’-buses-20-megacities

Implementation Pathway T heory of C hang e for Public Fleets

Political C ommitment S et targets

Fleet-Wide S trategy

Define technology, infrastructure, operational strategy and cost

Public Tendering

Procure vehicles and infrastructure in line with the target

Vehicle Deployment

Put vehicles and infrastructure into service

Saõ Paulo C limate Law to Force Technology Transition in 14,000 buses across 1,340 lines

Dallmann, Tim (2018) Climate and air pollutant emissions benefits of bus technology options in São Paulo. Washington, DC : International C ouncil on C lean Transportation. F orthcoming

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Technology Pathways for S oot-Free Engines

E uro VI or US 2010 Dies el eng ines or older engines with wall-flow diesel particulate filter. Requires 10-15 ppm S diesel.

G as eng ines using biogas or fossil gas

E lec tric drive eng ines such as battery-electric, fuel cell, trolley-electric …

Highest Up-Front C ost but Lowest Total C ost of O wnership for Battery-Electric Buses in Saõ Paulo

Purchase price for electric drive transit buses compared to a conventional diesel bus

TCO estimates over 10 years for conventional and alternative technology for Padron LE type buses in São Paulo

S ource: International E valuation of P ublic P olicies for E lectromobility in Urban F leets . Prepared for G esellschaft für International Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) as part of PN 2015.2127.7 – Efficient Propulsion Systems. Washington, DC: International Council on C lean Transportation. F orthcoming.

1. All new buses to be zero emission by 2029

2. All bus fleets to achieve 100% zero emissions by 2040

3. All fleets to submit a fleet-wide deployment strategy

▪ Largest fleets (100 or greater)

▪ to submit plan by 2020

▪ to achieve 25% ZEB purchases by 2023

▪ to achieve 50% ZEB purchases by 2026

▪ S mallest fleets (less than 100)

▪ to submit plan by 2023

▪ to achieve 25% ZEB purchases by 2026

More details online at https://arb.ca.gov/msprog/ict/ict.htm

C alifornia 2018 Proposal for Zero Emission Bus Mandate

Inputs

Route C haracteristics

Vehicle S pecifications

C harging S pecifications

Electricity C ost

Emission Factors

O wnership Model

Modeling

Vehicle Energy Demand S imulation

Emissions Modeling

Electricity C ost Modeling

TC O Modeling

O utputs

NPV TC O by O wnership Model

Average Annual Electricity C ost

Vehicle Replacement Ratio

Annual Emissions

Annual health/climate impacts

S ervice-Level Total C ost of O wnership (TC O ) Modeling at Route Level

Areas of S upport

▪ Fleet-wide vehicle modernization scheme

▪ Vehicle technology, infrastructure, and operational planning

▪ Independent performance and cost assessment of in-service vehicles

▪ Total cost of ownership modeling and benefit assessment at the route level

▪ Innovative financing and business models

▪ Tendering and contracts

▪ E-Bus Retrofitting

UITP India and IC C T S upport to Bengaluru: 2018-2021

Thank you

ray@ theicct.org

@ mrminjares/@ theicct

S upplementary

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Technology S hift Towards S oot-Free Engines

C ourtesy of C learAire, Inc.

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Energy consumption of on-road diesel engines* has increased more than 400% since 1980

Based on IEA data from the World Energy Balances Data Service © OECD/IEA 2017, www.iea.org/statistics. Licence: www.iea.org/t&c; as modified by IC C T.

*Diesel engines consume diesel fuel and biodiesel.

S antiago TC O analysis informs route and technology selection

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Electric drive engines are more energy efficient than combustion engines

IC C T (2017). Low-carbon technology pathways for soot-free urban bus fleets in 20 megacities. https://www.theicct.org/publications/low-carbon-technology-pathways-soot-free-urban-bus-fleets-20-megacities

S antiago route pre-selection for 90 e-bus pilot with a view towards ~2000 e-buses by 2025

60% of new buses in major cities must be NEVs

▪ Battery electric

▪ Plug-in Hybrid Electric

▪ Fuel C ell Electric

C hina National Ten Measures (2013)

F ig ure 1. Vehic le population in C hina’s provinc es and munic ipalities in 2014 (10,000 units )

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Today 20% of new buses are soot-free

2014 G lobal Bus S ales, by Region*

Requires S oot-Free Buses

Proposes S oot-Free Bus S tds

*Includes only transit and coach buses. S oot-Free defined as Euro VI-equivalent for buses. Does not include sub-national policies

No Requirement

EU5%

Korea1%

Turkey2%

US A2%

India6%

C hina2%

Russia1%

Thailand1%

India6%

Mexico1%

C hina29%

Brazil4%

Russia1%

Thailand1%

O ther38%

Adopted S oot-Free Bus S tds

C hina C ity Targets for NEV Buses

C ity T arg et S c ope B as e Y ear T arg et Y ear

Beijing 60% Existing fleet 2017 2020

S haanxi 7000 Existing fleet 2020

Hainan 90% New and replacement buses

2020

G uangdong 75% Existing Fleet 2020

Pearl River Delta

90% New and replacement

2019

C hongmingIsland

100% Existing Fleet 2020

Harbin 80% Existing Fleet 2020

C hangsha 100% Existing Fleet 2020

Electric drive buses not only deliver zero emissions but also the greatest climate benefits in 16 of 20 cities

Dallmann, T. R .; Du, L.; Minjares, R . L ow-C arbon T echnology P athways for S oot-F ree Urban B us F leets in 20 Megacities ; Working Paper 2017-11; Washington, DC, 2017; Vol. 356, pp 493–494.

Last diesel bus phased out in 2011 in favor of C NGLA Metro’s 2030 ZEB plan would be ten years ahead of CARB goals

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LA Metro: 2,300 buses is largest in C alifornia

But ‘Fossil Fuel Free’ Will Still Allow High Carbon Fuels in Saõ Paulo

Dallmann, Tim (2018) Climate and air pollutant emissions benefits of bus technology options in São Paulo. Washington, DC : International C ouncil on C lean Transportation. F orthcoming

https://www.theicct.org/soot-free-transport-resources

Pathways to S oot-Free Low C arbon Fleets

Local Actions

1. S et a target year to procure only soot-free fuels and engines2. S et a target year to procure only zero emission engines3. Develop a ZEB implementation strategy

• Undertake feasibility studies and TC O analysis of route electrification• Target early introduction of electric drive onto fixed route BRT

4. Replace the highest emitting buses in the fleet

National Actions

1. S et 10ppm S fuel s tandards and adopt E uro VI emis s ion norms2. S et timelines for trans ition to 100% electric drive in new buses3. P rovide fis c al inc entives• Direc t s ubs idies for Z E B purc has e and infrastructure;• Revise public transit subsidies in favor of least cost TC O• S hift tax policies in favor of electric drive technology

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Under adopted policies, 37% of the world’s HDDV fleet will be equipped soot-free by 2040

S ource: Miller, J ., and J in, L. (2018). G lobal Progress Toward S oot-Free Diesel Vehicles.https://www.theicct.org/publications/global-progress-toward-soot-free-diesel-vehicles-2018

C alifornia

Fuente: Frank S chulenburg, C C BY-S A 4.0,

▪ C umplir con normas de ozono en 2023 y 2031

▪ 40% reducción en emisiones de G EF bajo niveles 1990 en2030

▪ 80 % reducción en emisiones de G EF bajo niveles 1990 en2050

▪ 50 % reducción en consumo de petróleo en 2030

Requiere desarrollo máximo de tecnología de cero emisiones

Metas Estatales en C alifornia

40% de la flota ya lleva un compromiso voluntariode cero emisiones

https://arb.ca.gov/msprog/ict/ict.htm

▪ 188 milliones US D (2017-2018) HVIP

▪ 30,000 US D cada cargador

▪ 100,000 US D cada cinco FC EB

Incentivos

https://arb.ca.gov/msprog/ict/ict.htm

▪ 130 milliones US D VW Dieselgate

▪ 180,000 US D BEB

▪ 400,000 US D FC EB

▪ 5 % producto de subasta de cap y comercio

▪ 250 milliones US D (AB 617) calidad del aire

O tros Incentivos

https://arb.ca.gov/msprog/ict/ict.htm

▪ S AE Estàndares de C arga

▪ Aprobado J 3068 AC de 3 fases para vehículosmedianos y pesados hasta 166kw

▪ Inalámbrico y aéreo bajo desarrollo

▪ S B350 electrificación de transporte

▪ 780 millones US D inversion aprobado por servicioseléctricos

▪ C ompra conjunta de buses al nivel estatal

▪ Estándar de combustible bajo en carbono

▪ Reducir la intensidad de carbono en combustible de transporte por 10 % en 2020

O tros Programas

https://arb.ca.gov/msprog/ict/ict.htm

Asistencia a O peradores: Apoyo Técnico e Independiente

Asistencia a O peradores: Apoyo Técnico e Independiente

Los Angeles

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C iudad de Los Angeles: 100% BC E en 2030

42

1. Demanda a largo plazo para un servicio igual o mayor a diesel

1. Rango de más de 400 km en conducción intermitente con factor de carga de 1.4 pasajeros

2. Menos de 14,000 kg de peso en vacío para 12m bus

3. Rango de 400 km a lo largo de la vida del vehículo de 12 años

4. 100 km / h de velocidad máxima; capacidad de mantener unacalificación del 10%

2. Nueva inversión inicial en equipos de carga e infraestructura

3. Riesgos tecnológicos conocidos y desconocidos, particularmente baterías

4. S e necesita financiación adicional para implementar el programa 100%

Impactos en otros costos operativos y de capital, calendario de despliegue y / o nivelesde servicio y confiabilidad. Puede requerir reemplazo en una proporción mayor que 1: 1

Obstáculos a una flota de C ero Emisiones

Metro Orange Line – Project Details

▪ 40 New Flyer 18m

▪ 5 BYD 18m

▪ 2 – depot chargers

▪ 8 – en route chargers

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F as e 1:

▪ Electrificar 2 líneas de BRT

▪ C ontinuar reemplazando la flota existente con motores de G NC de bajo NO x (~ 200 por año)

▪ Desarrollar evaluación de tecnología y plan maestro (2019-2020)

F as e 2:

▪ Implementar el Plan Maestro

Los Angeles – Plan de Dos Fases

Flota Foothill Transit

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71292.pdf

§ 16 buses eléctricos de carga rápida

§ Línea 291 – La Verne – Claremont – Pomona

§ Cargo de 7-min en Pomona Transit Center

§ 8 buses en el servicio pico

§ En funcionamiento desde 2010

Servicio Actual

Disponibilidad de buses

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71292.pdf

La estación de carga

• Una estación de carga rápida de alta potencia con dos cargadores superiores, suficiente para servir a todos losautobuses

• 138,000 ciclos de carga a la fecha, y 1.3 millones de millasde bus eléctrico

• Ubicado en Pomona Transit Center, un centro neurálgicocon flexibilidad y seguridad fuera de la calle

§ 14 autobuses eléctricos de autonomíaextendida

§ Línea 280: Azusa – Covina – West Covina –La Puente – Industry – Puente Hills Mall

§ Rango nominal de 404 km

§ Carga nocturna en la instalación de mantenimiento y operaciones de Arcadia

§ Carga en ruta disponible en Azusa Intermodal Transit Center (cerca de la estación Gold Line)

§ Los buses aceptados en diciembre de 2017

Servicio Eléctrico Nuevo

Desafío Actual: Espacio para Instalación de cargadores

Foothill Transit Arcadia Yard

Lecciones aprendidas: altos costos de electricidad

• El cargador rápido usa tanta electricidad

como un edificio de oficinas de 6 pisos

• Electricidad puede ser caro

• Por milla, se paga un 65% más por

electricidad que gas natural.

Q2 2015 Electricidad Gas Natural

Costo (per gal/kWh) $0.17 $0.93

Costo (per mile) $0.37 $0.23

Lecciones Aprendidas: costo de mantenimiento bajo

Mantenimiento preventivo es 29% más barato que GNC

• Sin fluidos de motor o filtros

• Costo laboral es igual

Alta fiabilidad:

• La disponibilidad está por encima del objetivo y a la par con

el GNC

• Disponibilidad de flota eléctrica 90% vs. 95% CNG.

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C onsumo de energía en vehículos de carreteraha incrementado más de 400% desde 1980

Based on IEA data from the World Energy Balances Data Service © O EC D/IEA 2017, www.iea.org/statistics. Licence: www.iea.org/t&c; as modified by IC C T.

*Diesel engines consume diesel fuel and biodiesel.

▪ S e operan dentro de ciudades con alta contaminación

▪ C ombustible suministrado centralmente

▪ Apoyo y subsidios del gobierno

▪ Experiencia e infraestructura para otros tipos de vehículos

¿Porqué Buses?

Dallmann, T. R ., Du, L., & Minjares, R . (2017). L ow-C arbon T echnology P athways for S oot-F ree Urban B us F leets in 20 Megacities(No. Working Paper 2017-11). International C ouncil on C lean T ransportation (Vol. 356, pp. 493–494). Washington, DC. Retrieved from http://www.theicct.org/publications/low-carbon-technology-pathways-soot-free-urban-bus-fleets-20-megacities

No room for high carbon fuels in a low-carbon fleet

9 de cada 10 personas respiran airecontaminado

También enfrentamos un desafío climático

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P has e 1:

▪ Electrify 2 BRT lines

▪ C ontinue replacing existing fleet with low-NO x C NG engines (~ 200 per year)

▪ Develop ZEB Technology Assessment and Master Plan (2019-2020)

P has e 2:

▪ Implement ZEB Master Plan to deploy 100% zero emission buses.

Los Angeles – Two Phase Plan

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LA Metro O range Line: Project Details

3-4 C hargers

1-2 C hargers

2-3 C hargers

Div 8 C hatsworth(S hop chargers)