paul s. herrnson university of connecticut state legislative leaders foundation may 7, 2015
Post on 21-Dec-2015
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Candidates must wage two campaigns Incumbents have huge advantages Campaign finance system has disintegrated New possibilities, pressures, and pitfalls for
donors It’s not always a race between 2 candidates
anymore
• Logistics• Strategy• Message• Communications• Motivate supporters, win persuadable
voters, depress turnout for opposition
4
Prior to the campaign season District composition High visibility & popularity
During the campaign season Quality of the opposition Head start/early lead Expectations Voting cues
“The cycle” Most incumbents win, but many run
scared...
5
Fundraising• Logistics
– Begins early, ends after the election – State or nationwide
• Steps– Identify a financial constituency– Develop a pitch– Start local, build out– Match techniques to donors
Political consulting talent Endorsements Outside spending groups
• Interest Groups• Political action committees (PACs)• Corporations, unions, trade associations, others
• Political parties• Party politicians• Individuals – Small $’s from district and elsewhere– Large $’s from the wealthy areas
Personal Solicitation
Big $Egos
Access
Fundraising Events
Mid $ Social
Direct Response: -Direct Mail -Telemarketing
Low $ The Cause
Source: Nancy Bocskor
The Fundraising Pyramid
• Experienced organization• Tried and true fundraising list and pitch• Money is drawn to power• Expectations• Dynamics– Start early (continuous f-r)– Raise lots $ scare off competition OR keep raising
$• Challenger disadvantages –Opposite situation– “Catch 22”
9
Court rulings, regulatory decisions…
From 3 Letters…PAC (political action committee)
….To Alphabet SoupPACsSuper PACs (IE-only committees)527 committees501(c)s / social welfare organizationsCorporations, trade associations, labor unions, others
Put Alaska First PAC $10,157,335 supports Begich (D-Ak.)
Kentuckians for Strong Leadership
$6,409,610 supports McConnell (R-Kty.)
Committee to Elect an Independent Senate
$3,891,371 supports Orman (I-Kans.)
Source: Center for Responsive Politics data.
Court rulings, regulatory decisions, 24-hour news cycle
… Individuals can do almost anything
...may be asked to do everything
The almost can backfire… and everyone can learn about it
Contribute to a candidate, party, traditional PAC, 527, 501(c), super PAC, single-candidate super PAC◦ No aggregate limit
Make unlimited expenditures◦ Same for corporations, unions, other groups
Create an organization or network of org’s ◦ Limited, disclosed contributions to regulated committees◦ Unlimited, undisclosed contributions to unregulated committees
Do nothing?◦ Depends on motives for contributing◦ Balance: impact on election and policy v. public exposure
Outside spending can be substantial In 2014… Parties and interest groups outspent both
candidates in 9 Senate and 19 House races Difficult for candidates
◦ Plan their campaigns◦ Disseminate their messages◦ Avoid the money chase
Voters hear a cacophony of voices Financed by wealthy individuals
& groups
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