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PEMODELAN TSUNAMI PEMODELAN TSUNAMI DALAM INADALAM INA--TEWSTEWS

Velly Asvaliantina, M.Eng.Sc

Balai Pengkajian Dinamika Pantai - BPPT

ObjectivesObjectives

PemodelanPemodelan tsunami tsunami dalamdalam TEWS :TEWS :SebagaiSebagai pendukungpendukung Tsunami warning BMG Tsunami warning BMG prepre--calculated calculated tsunami database (arrival time, H)tsunami database (arrival time, H)MendukungMendukung rencanarencana evakuasi/mitigasievakuasi/mitigasi bencanabencanaperhitungan/simulasiperhitungan/simulasi rendamanrendaman (run(run--up) up) berdasarkanberdasarkan data data historishistoris atauatau hipotetishipotetis..

informations for tsunami hazard mitigation activities (e.g: informations for tsunami hazard mitigation activities (e.g: vulnerability/Risk assessment, coastal/urban planning, etc.): tsvulnerability/Risk assessment, coastal/urban planning, etc.): tsunami unami innundation map, possible tsunami arrival time and runinnundation map, possible tsunami arrival time and run--up height.up height.

1122

3344

55

Real Time Real Time Up DateUp Date

1010

3030

6060Tsunami Tsunami RecordedRecorded

No Recorded :No Recorded :CancellationCancellation NATIONAL TEWC

•• SeisSeis. At REITWC Record. At REITWC Record

•• Alarm TriggeredAlarm Triggered

•• Automatic CallAutomatic CallProcessProcess

REGIONAL TEWC

EqEq. Location. LocationMagnitudoMagnitudo

•• Alarm at NEITWCAlarm at NEITWC•• Automatic CallAutomatic Call

TSUNAMI TSUNAMI WARNINGWARNING

Interactive Interactive AnalysisAnalysis

DATA BASE• Historical• Simulation

•• PROCESSING/ AUTOMATICPROCESSING/ AUTOMATIC•• INTERACTIVE PROCESSINGINTERACTIVE PROCESSING

DATA BASE• Historical• Simulation

Real Time Real Time Up DateUp Date

•• WARNINGWARNINGfor National Scalefor National Scale

•• WARNINGWARNINGfor Regional Scalefor Regional Scale

Scenario of Tsunami Early Warning Process (Planed)

BUOYS BUOYS –– TIDE GAUGETIDE GAUGE’’S S MONITORINGMONITORING

For ConfirmationFor Confirmation

DEPUTI SISTEM DATA DAN INFORMASI - BMG

Time in m

inute

EarthquakeOccurence

TUGAS MASINGTUGAS MASING--MASING INSTITUSIMASING INSTITUSIDALAM TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM DI INDONESIADALAM TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM DI INDONESIA

SEISMOGRAPHSEISMOGRAPHRencanaRencana : 160; : 160; TerpasangTerpasang : 70 (: 70 (s/ds/d 2006)2006)

ACCELEROGRAPHACCELEROGRAPHRencanaRencana : 500; : 500; TerpasangTerpasang: 51 (: 51 (s/ds/d 2006)2006)

SYARATSYARATLapisanLapisan BatuanBatuan

BebasBebas GetaranGetaranKetersediaanKetersediaan ListrikListrik

JalanJalan masukmasukKeamananKeamanan

1. PENGOLAHAN OTOMATIS 1. PENGOLAHAN OTOMATIS

-- LokasiLokasi SumberSumber GempaGempa, , -- WaktuWaktu, , -- KekuatanKekuatan-- KedalamanKedalaman

3. DATA BASE3. DATA BASE-- SejarahSejarah TsunamiTsunami-- PraPra--kalkulasikalkulasi/ /

SimulasiSimulasiTsunamiTsunami

2. PROSES 2. PROSES CROSS CHECKCROSS CHECK

-- KekuatanKekuatan??-- LokasiLokasi ??-- Tsunami ?Tsunami ?

RISTEK, RISTEK, UniversitasUniversitas, , InstitusiInstitusi RisetRiset))--PemodelanPemodelan

--PembangunanPembangunan DatabaseDatabase--PEnelitianPEnelitian dandan PengembanganPengembangan

TransportasiTransportasi(Dep. Hub)(Dep. Hub)

KomunikasiKomunikasi((DepkominfoDepkominfo.).)JalanJalan, , TendaTenda

(Dep. PU)(Dep. PU)MakananMakanan & Air & Air

BersihBersih((KementerianKementerian

KesraKesra, , DepsosDepsos))KesehatanKesehatan, ,

SanitasiSanitasi((DepkesDepkes))

ManajemenManajemenResikoResiko

((DephankamDephankam))LainLain--lainlain

(BAKORNAS)(BAKORNAS)

(RISTEK, (RISTEK, DepdiknasDepdiknas, LIPI), LIPI)--EdukasiEdukasi PublikPublik--KesiapsiagaanKesiapsiagaan--LatihanLatihan EvakuasiEvakuasi TsunamiTsunami

PROSES DATAPROSES DATA MITIGASI, MITIGASI, REHABILITASI REHABILITASI

TANGGAP TANGGAP DARURATDARURAT

DISEMINASI INFO DISEMINASI INFO

PembangunanPembangunan KapasitasKapasitas/ / Capacity BuildingCapacity Building

PendidikanPendidikan KebencanaanKebencanaan

2. MONITOR GELOMBANG LAUT2. MONITOR GELOMBANG LAUT-- Tide Gauge (Tide Gauge (BakosurtanalBakosurtanal))

-- GPS GPS –– Buoys (BPPT) Buoys (BPPT)

2. DEFORMASI KERAK BUMI 2. DEFORMASI KERAK BUMI -- GPS (GPS (BakosurtanalBakosurtanal))

PEMASANGAN SENSOR DAN PEMASANGAN SENSOR DAN MONITOR GETARAN SEISMIKMONITOR GETARAN SEISMIK

Informasi Gempabumi

Tsunami Warning

3

-- PUSKODAL POLRIPUSKODAL POLRI-- PUSKODAL TNIPUSKODAL TNI-- GUBERNURGUBERNUR--

BUPATIBUPATI--W.KOTAW.KOTA-- DEPSOSDEPSOS-- DEPKESDEPKES

-- BAKORNAS BAKORNAS --SATKORLAKSATKORLAK

-- STA TV STA TV -- RADIORADIO-- RADIO PANTAIRADIO PANTAI

-- ADPELADPEL-- PROVIDER GSM/ CDMAPROVIDER GSM/ CDMA

EWMS functional overview

l

k-1

x1,y0

x1,y1

x0,y0

x0,y1

k

1-l

Tsunami

Shore

f(x,y)

Hypocenter and Tsunami Source

M=6,5

M=6,8M=7,1

M=7,4M=7,7

M=8,0

Island

Database Structure (Tatehata, 1996)

Computation Concept Tsunami 2-D (Tatehata, 1996)

Precalculated Database Concept

Hypothetic tsunami sources distribution for whole Indonesian region (gray dot with interval 20 arc minutes and

blue dot with interval 40 arc minutes)

AcehAcehMaximum Inundation AreaMaximum Inundation Area

Inundation area within study area (D domain) in main land is 78.3 sq Km.

According to Satelite Image (Spot 5) :

According to Model:Inundation area within study area (D domain) in main land is 79.2 sq Km.

Source: UNOSAT

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Tsunami Run-up Selatan Bali

POTENSI BENCANA TSUNAMI RUNUP RESOLUSI 1 & 5 M

POTENSI BENCANA TSUNAMI RUNUP RESOLUSI 1 MKOTA PADANG SUMATRA BARAT

POTENSI BENCANA TSUNAMI RUNUP RESOLUSI 1 & 5 M

State of the Art of Tsunami State of the Art of Tsunami Numerical ModelingNumerical Modeling

Existing Methods :Existing Methods :

–– TUNAMI (TUNAMI (Tohoku Univ.)Tohoku Univ.)Finite difference, leapFinite difference, leap--frog scheme, nested gridfrog scheme, nested gridDeep water propagation: linear Deep water propagation: linear longwavelongwave theory; theory; Inundation model: nonInundation model: non--linearlinearCalculated runCalculated run--up up under estimate under estimate

–– MOST (PMEL/NOAA)MOST (PMEL/NOAA)Finite differenceFinite difference

-- TSUNAWI (AWITSUNAWI (AWI))Finite elementFinite element

ComMIT (Community Model Interface for Tsunami): Web-based inundation modelhttp://www.nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/ComMIT

3.Current Status and Future Plan3.Current Status and Future Plan

Area has been simulated:Area has been simulated:–– Southern Bali (2006)Southern Bali (2006)–– AnyerAnyer, , SundaSunda StrStr. (2006. (2006--07) 07) –– Tl.BetungTl.Betung (2006(2006--2007)2007)–– BengkuluBengkulu (2006)(2006)–– AcehAceh (2005)(2005)–– PadangPadang (2005)(2005)–– PacitanPacitan / / PancerPancer

Future Plan:Future Plan:-- South Java & South Java & PainanPainan (JICA)(JICA)-- SundaSunda Strait (INAStrait (INA--NOAA)NOAA)-- CilacapCilacap (LIPI)(LIPI)-- Other prone area (Other prone area (NTT,NTB,etcNTT,NTB,etc))