planning forum - ucas & planners

AUA planning forum 2012

Kate Lang and Mark Corver

Supporting planning through UCASdata and analysis

“The UK higher education paradigm is in flux.”[AUA Planning Forum 2012 introduction]

In England, new fee, waiver and bursary market

Coupled with long-term access targets

Funding and control of HE system is changing

We don’t know how applicants will respond

Your job as planners more difficult

How can UCAS help planners?

Analysis of the key national patterns

Rich data on your institution

Future directions

How can UCAS help planners?

Analysis of the key national patterns

Rich data on your institution

Future directions

Providing national intelligence

Analysis of national trends

Understanding of application cycle

Intelligence on the strategic changes

18 year old application rates down in England

Women increase application rate advantage

Strong increases by disadvantaged over decade

Advantaged in England more affected by fees?

Mature application rate falls after above-trend rise

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

NEW APPLICANTS REAPPLIERS

Decline in first-time UK applicants in 2011

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

ACCEPTED HAS OFFER NO OFFERS

ACCEPTED (2010) HAS OFFER (2010) NO OFFERS (2010)

Cycle start -------------------------------------------------------Cycle end

Shape of the cycle: 2011 similar to 2010

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201160%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%77.7% 77.6% 77.2% 77.3% 77.6%

75.3%

69.9% 70.3%

Acceptance rate recovers in 2011 after sharp fall

2007 2008 2009 2010 201170%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

AAB BBB ALL

Easier to get accepted in 2011?

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201165%

70%

75%

80%

0%

5%

10%

15%

ACCEPTED AT FIRM ACCEPTED AT INSURANCE

ACCEPTED IN CLEARING UNPLACED

Note: The dotted lines refer to the right hand scale, the solid line relates to the left hand scale

Fewer get in on firm acceptance

Note: The dotted lines refer to the right hand scale, the solid line relates to the left hand scale

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

IMMEDIATE APPLICANTS IMMEDIATE ACCEPTANCE

DEFERRED APPLICANTS DEFERRED ACCEPTANCE

Large fall in deferred applications, accepts in 2011

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Meaning that a nearly flat trend of acceptances...

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Masked jump in starters against fixed controls

How can UCAS help planners?

Analysis of the key national patterns

Rich data on your institution

Future directions

Who are Data Insight?

Commercial Policy & Research

Team of dedicated account managersAdvise on all your data requirementsChargeable products and servicesDesigned to compliment freely available national data and provide more in depth institutional level information

Analysts sit within Analysis & ResearchWork closely with other colleaguesIncome covenanted back to UCAS to keep down capitation fee

How will our products and services help you?

Data Insight products and services

Understand the ‘as is’

picture

Monitor performance

against strategic aims

Identify new markets

Benchmark yourselves

against competitors

Identify areas of decline

Understand your

competition

Product summary

MarketscanHelp with course planning and pinpointing course

trends

Catchment Identify your feeder establishments and understand

your market share

Grade ProfileUnderstand the market in purely grade terms and

target high achieving students

Marketscan

Football Studies

Institution Course Year Subject Degree type

Rem-ove

University of Red

Football studies 2011 Sport Science

BA

University of Red

Football and society

2011 Sport Science

BA

Blue University

Football and society

2011 Sport Science

BA

Blue University

Football Studies & French

2011 Combined BA 1

Marketscan

• Age• Gender• Ethnic group• Tariff band• Disability status• Home region of

domicile• Overseas country

of domicile

Applications and acceptances by

institution and year

Marketscan

This will aid planners by allowing you to…Review your current course portfolioUnderstand areas of growth or declineAssess market for new course provisionMonitor changes in course popularity over many cycles

View course or subject trends over the past three to nine yearsYou choose the courses to include, or allow us to ‘scan’ course titles for relevant keywordsChoose from three to nine year trendsRestrict to mission groups, regional groups or competitor institutionsView trends, course information, entry requirements, offer and acceptance rates, applicant demographics and institution level data

Catchment

• Applications, offers and acceptances

by school or college

• Compare to the sector or competitor

group

• See your reliance on the school

• And % penetration for applications and

acceptances

• Drill down by subjects, local authority or

school sector

• See trends over a number of years

Catchment

Understand key feeder schools and identify trendsUnderstand you market share of local schools and collegesChoose to look at just schools who you receive applications from, all schools in an area, or a specified listUndertake the same analysis for geographic areas such as postcode districts or overseas countries

This will aid planners by allowing you to…Link to OFFA reportingMonitor success of school targets or geographic areasUnderstand variations by different departmentsTrack trends over timeMonitor long term aims such as new market penetration in overseas countries

Grade Profile

Destination data for your applicants and AAB+ grade profile

Top 50 course codes accepting applicants

with AAB+ grade profile

National applications and acceptances by

institution and subject line

AAB+ applications and acceptances by

institution and subject line

AAB+ applications and acceptances by

institution subject group and grade profile

This product was developed to respond requests from members for data following the removal of the cap on AAB+ students

This is the first stage in our reporting on changes to student number controls and the

introduction of variable fees

Grade Profile

Understand the market for AAB+ studentsGain in depth information about the destinations of your students and their qualification profileIdentify the key courses attracting high achieving studentsUnderstand the national market and drill down to different subjects and institutions

This will aid planners by allowing you to…Aid with adapting your planning for changes to higher educationUse historic data to aid with forward number control planningUnderstand the market in purely grade terms and target high achieving studentsMonitor qualifications of your applicantsUnderstand and benchmark against your competition

Future support for planners

Stronger analysis and research team

Greater focus on understanding

Reporting at national level

New possibilities for helping planners

How can UCAS help planners?

Analysis of the key national patterns

Rich data on your institution

Future directions

New strategic analysis area will use wider data

Understand entry steps and their outcomes

Possible future help for planners from this

1. OFFA targets and trajectories?

2. Intra-cycle student number projections?

3. Institutional demand forecasts?

Planning for OFFA access agreements

What are OFFA looking for?

Source:OFFA 2011/01

Demanding set of planning requirements

Measure disadvantage

Commit to trajectory and monitor

Relate to population, attainment, sector

Link to retention outcomes

Defining and demonstrate disadvantage

Areas: POLAR2, IDACI, parental education

Post-16 schools: type, nature, participation

Pre-16 schools: type, nature, participation

Prior FSM status, sex, ethnic group, in-care

Occupational groups, income measures

Measures to isolate your contribution

Application rates

Offer making rates

Offer response rates

Offer satisfaction, entry rates

Non-continuation, attainment, destinations

Fair comparisons?

Populations – including local populations

Attainment - grade and subject

Applied to you?

By fee, support levels?

Trends spanning pre- and post-2012

Relative application rates for £9,000 courses

Offer making probabilities by background

Intra-cycle forecasting of acceptances

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

ACCEPTED HAS OFFER NO OFFERS

ACCEPTED (2010) HAS OFFER (2010) NO OFFERS (2010)

Cycle start -------------------------------------------------------Cycle end

Shape of the cycle: for applicants

Data source: UCAS Analysis and Research

27/09/2

010

21/10/2

010

14/11/2

010

08/12/2

010

01/01/2

011

25/01/2

011

18/02/2

011

14/03/2

011

07/04/2

011

01/05/2

011

25/05/2

011

18/06/2

011

12/07/2

011

05/08/2

011

29/08/2

011

22/09/2

011

16/10/2

0110

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

Chart Title

Secured PlaceLiability LevelSecured (2010)Liability (2010)

Looking at the institution’s perspective too

UCAS tools tell you exactly where you are

Source: http://www.ucasmedia.com/whatweoffer/datainsight/applicationanddecisiontracker

Suppose we have this understanding?

So that choice between offers can be predicted

Source: Unpublished analysis for OFFA 2010/06

Combined – could we report a SNC ‘glide path’?

Institutional demand forecasts?

We know the UK population context

Starting to build our forecasting capability

Extrapolating age-specific application rates

Combine with population forecasts

Evidence led forecast of numbers

And application rates can be predicted

Could we forecast at institutional level?

Take account of your applicant profile

Young / mature, local/faraway, UK/EU

Project forward populations, rates

Identify new opportunities?

Possible future help for planners from this

1. OFFA targets and trajectories?

2. Intra-cycle student number projections?

3. Institutional demand forecasts?

Discussion

Is our national analysis helpful?

Are there quick improvements we can make to our institutional data to help you now?

How can we best help you through future support from our analysis programme?

Contact us

Kate Lang01242 54 49 56

k.lang@ucas.ac.uk

Mark Corver01242 22 37 45

m.corver@ucas.ac.uk

Let us know what you think