predicted impacts of climate change on threatened and

Predicted impacts of climate change on threatened and endemic species in the

Albertine Rift Region

Andrew Plumptre and Sam Ayebare Wildlife Conservation Society

The Albertine Rift Region

• The most species rich region for vertebrates in the whole of Africa

• More endemic species than any other ecoregion

• More threatened species than any other ecoregion/hotspot

WCS made studies of predicted climate changes in Albertine Rift

Main findings of climate work

• Likely to become drier up to 2030-2040 in most of AR

• Then will become wetter up to end of century in north and centre of AR

• Most increased rainfall in September - November

Bwindi-Ruhija precipitation rate

based on daily data from 1991-2006

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Bwindi-Ruhija monthly mean rainfall rates

(annual 3.7 mm/day = 1,348 mm total)

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Modeling species distributions of endemic and threatened species

• Used Maxent to model individual species that were endemic or threatened • Mammals

• Birds

• Reptiles

• Amphibians

• Plants

Combined richness of endemic and threatened species

Endemic Threatened

Modeled in the future using A2 scenario and combination of

three climate models

Endemic Threatened

Losses of range and percentage protected

Taxon Percentage loss to habitat destruction

Percentage loss to Climate change

Percentage protected now

Percentage protected in 2080

Endemic

Mammals 40 69 73 34

Birds 35 78 50 70

Reptiles 34 68 44 53

Amphibians 30 75 38 52

Plants 34 80 59 69

Threatened

Large mammals 22 26 40 48

Small mammals 58 68 43 52

Plants 31 57 51 64

Conservation Planning Marxan

Conclusions of research

• Endemic and threatened species have lost on average 35% of their predicted current range to agriculture

• On average species will lose 65% of their remaining range by 2080

• About 49% of ranges on average are in protected areas – 55% of future ranges

Probable new Leptopelis from Bwindi

A.Plumptre/WCS

Conservation applications

• Using niche models to identify critical areas outside protected areas

• Looking to improve climate resilience • Conservation farming

• Agroforestry

• Incentives to conserve forest (REDD+)

• Niche modeling also being used to plan oil developments and minimise impacts

A.Plumptre/WCS