predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in ireland: does day of the week matter? simone walsh, ena...

Predicting trends in fatal drug overdoses in Ireland: does day of the week matter?

Simone Walsh, Ena Lynn and Suzi Lyons

NDRDI Background

• National Drug-Related Deaths Index (NDRDI) established in 2005

• Funded by Dept. of Health and Dept. of Justice and Equality

• European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA)

Overview

• 2,734 individuals died between 1998 and 2009 of a fatal drug overdose (poisoning) in Ireland

• Age and Gender• Significant Events (Christmas, St Patricks Day)• Substance involved and route of

administration• Who deceased was with and where they were

at the time of death

All NDRDI Poisoning Deaths 1998 to 2009

5

All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, n=2734

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

6

All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, gender by day of the week, n=2734

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

MaleFemale

Day Of The Week

Per

cent

age

7

All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, median age by day of the week, n=2734

Day of the Week Median AgeMonday 35

Tuesday 35

Wednesday 36

Thursday 35

Friday 35

Saturday 34

Sunday 33

All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, median age by day of the week, n=2734

8

Day of the Week Median AgeMonday 35

Tuesday 35

Wednesday 36

Thursday 35

Friday 35

Saturday 34

Sunday 33

All NDRDI poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, median age by day of the week, n=2734

9

Day of the Week Median AgeMonday 35

Tuesday 35

Wednesday 36

Thursday 35

Friday 35

Saturday 34

Sunday 33

All Cocaine Poisonings NDRDI 1998 to 2009

All cocaine poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, n=318

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

11

Cocaine Poisonings Excluding Opiates NDRDI, 1998 to 2009

Cocaine poisonings excluding opiates 1998 to 2009,by day of the week n=146

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Day Of The Week

Nim

ber

13

Cocaine poisonings excluding opiates 1998 to 2009, gender by day of the week n=146

14

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Male Female

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

Cocaine poisonings excluding opiates 1998 to 2009,who with by day of the week n=146

15

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

AloneWith Someone

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

Heroin Poisonings NDRDI 1998 to 2009

17

Heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, NDRDI n=643

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

Non-injecting Heroin Poisoning Deaths NDRDI,1998 to 2009

19

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, n=234

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

20

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, gender by day of the week, n=234

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

MaleFemale

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

21

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, median age by day of the week, n=234

Day of The Week Median AgeMonday 31Tuesday 28

Wednesday 30Thursday 29

Friday 28Saturday 27Sunday 29

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, median age by day of the week, n=234

22

Day of The Week Median AgeMonday 31Tuesday 28

Wednesday 30Thursday 29

Friday 28Saturday 27Sunday 29

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, median age by day of the week, n=234

23

Day of The Week Median AgeMonday 31Tuesday 28

Wednesday 30Thursday 29

Friday 28Saturday 27Sunday 29

24

Non-injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, who with at time of death, n=234

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

AloneWithsomeone

Day of the Week

Perc

enta

ge

Injecting Heroin Poisoning Deaths NDRDI 1998 to 2009

26

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by day of the week, n=405

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Day Of The Week

Num

ber

27

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, by gender and day of the week, n=405

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Male Female

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

28

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,median age by day of the week, n=405

Day of the Week Median AgeMonday 31

Tuesday 32

Wednesday 33

Thursday 31

Friday 31

Saturday 27

Sunday 25

29

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,median age by day of the week, n=405

Day of the Week Median AgeMonday 31

Tuesday 32

Wednesday 33

Thursday 31

Friday 31

Saturday 27

Sunday 25

30

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009,median age by day of the week, n=405

Day of the Week Median AgeMonday 31

Tuesday 32

Wednesday 33

Thursday 31

Friday 31

Saturday 27

Sunday 25

31

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, who with at time of death, n=405

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

AloneWith Someone

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

Injecting heroin poisoning deaths 1998 to 2009, who with at time of death, n=405

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

AloneWith Someone

Day Of The Week

Perc

enta

ge

32

All NDRDI Deaths by Week of the Month NDRDI, 1998 to 2009

34

All NDRDI deaths by week of the month,1998 to 2009, n = 2,734

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

FirstSecondThirdFourth

Grouped day of the week

Perc

enta

ge

35

All female NDRDI poisoning deaths Tuesday and Wednesday n=220

First Second Third Fourth.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

TuesdayWednesday

Grouped day of the week

Perc

enta

ge

All female NDRDI poisoning deaths Tuesday and Wednesday n=220

36

First Second Third Fourth.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

TuesdayWednesday

Grouped day of the week

Perc

enta

ge

Findings

• Delivering harm reduction messages and treatment outcomes - day of the week does matter

• Subgroups within the drug using population are at risk different times of the week or month

• Opportunity to save a life