price patterns, charts and technical analysis: the

PRICEPATTERNS,CHARTSANDTECHNICALANALYSIS:THEMOMENTUMSTUDIES

AswathDamodaran

2

TheRandomWalkHypothesis

Current Next period

Stock price is an unbiased estimate of the value of the stock.

Information

Price Assessment

Implications for Investors

No approach or model will allow us to identify under or over valued assets.

New information comes out about the firm.

All information about the firm is publicly available and traded on.

The price changes in accordance with the information. If it contains good (bad) news, relative to expectations, the stock price will increase (decrease).

Reflecting the 50/50 chance of the news being good or bad, there is an equal probability of a price increase and a price decrease.

Market Expectations

Investors form unbiased expectations about the future

Since expectations are unbiased, there is a 50% chance of good or bad news.

3

TheBasisforPricePatterns

1. Investorsarenotalwaysrationalinthewaytheysetexpectations.Theseirrationalitiesmayleadtoexpectationsbeingsettoolowforsomeassetsatsometimesandtoohighforotherassetsatothertimes.Thus,thenextpieceofinformationismorelikelytocontaingoodnewsforthefirstassetandbadnewsforthesecond.

2. Pricechangesthemselvesmayprovideinformationtomarkets.Thus,thefactthatastockhasgoneupstronglythelastfourdaysmaybeviewedasgoodnewsbyinvestors,makingitmorelikelythatthepricewillgouptodaythendown.

4

TheEmpiricalEvidenceonPricePatterns

• Investorshaveusedpricechartsandpricepatternsastoolsforpredictingfuturepricemovementsforaslongastherehavebeenfinancialmarkets.

• Thefirststudiesofmarketefficiencyfocusedoncomputingthecorrelationinpricechangesovertime,toseeifinfactsuchpredictionswerefeasible.• Positivecorrelation:Pricemomentum• Negativecorrelation:Pricereversal

• Evidenceonpricebehaviorcanbeclassifiedintofourclasses– Studiesthatlooksatthereallyshortterm(minutes&Hours)– Studiesthatfocusonshort-term(Daily&Weeklypricemovements)– Studiesthatlookatmediumterm(manymonthsoryearly)– Studiesthatexaminelong-term(five-yearreturns)

5

1.SerialCorrelationinreallyshort-termreturns(minutes&hours)

¨ Marketmicrostructureeffect:Thegeneralconsensusofstudiesinreallyshorttermreturns(minutes,hours)isthatthereisverylowserialcorrelation,withtwostructuraleffects:a. Marketliquidityeffect:Ifmarketsarenotliquid,youwillsee

positiveserialcorrelationinindexreturns.b. Bid-askspreadeffect:Thebid-askspreadcreatesabiasinthe

oppositedirection,iftransactionspricesareusedtocomputereturns,sincepriceshaveaequalchanceofendingupatthebidortheaskprice.Thebouncethatthisinducesinpriceswillresultinnegativeserialcorrelationsinreturns.

¨ SpeedandScale:Tomakemoneyoftheseserialcorrelations,youhavetotradefast,atlowcostandinlargequantities.Increasingly,computersarebeatinghumanbeingsatthisgame(highfrequencytrading,forinstance).

¨ Imitatedquickly:Thatsaid,eventhesecomputer-basedtradingstrategiesrunoutofsteamquickly,sincetherearealwaysmorepowerfulcomputersoutthere.

6

2.Serialcorrelationintheshortterm(days):DailyReturnPredictabilityfrom1926-2018

PriorPeriodReturns ValueWeighted EquallyWeightedWorst 0.0162% 0.1308%2 0.0332% 0.0842%3 0.0388% 0.0760%4 0.0391% 0.0752%5 0.0387% 0.0729%6 0.0422% 0.0717%7 0.0439% 0.0718%8 0.0517% 0.0760%9 0.0521% 0.0825%

Best 0.0646% 0.0947%

7

3.Serialcorrelationinthemediumterm:Manymonthsorayear

¨ Positivecorrelation:Whentimeisdefinedasmanymonthsorayear,ratherthanasinglemonth,thereseemstobeatendencytowardspositiveserialcorrelation.

¨ Momentumeffect:Jegadeesh andTitmanpresentevidenceofwhattheycall“pricemomentum”instockpricesovertimeperiodsofseveralmonths– stocksthathavegoneupinthelastsixmonthstendtocontinuetogoupwhereasstocksthathavegonedowninthelastsixmonthstendtocontinuetogodown.

¨ Evidence:Between1945and2010,ifyouclassifiedstocksintodecilesbaseduponpriceperformanceoverthepreviousyear,theannualreturnyouwouldhavegeneratedbybuyingthestocksinthethetopdecileandheldforthenextyearwas16.5%higherthanthereturnyouwouldhaveearnedonthestocksinthebottomdecile.

8

Annualreturnsfrommomentumclasses

9

More“evidence”onmomentum

1. Volumeeffect:Momentumaccompaniedbyhighertradingvolumeisstrongerandmoresustainedthanmomentumwithlowtradingvolume.

2. Sizeeffect:Whileearlierstudiessuggestthatmomentumisstrongeratsmallmarketcapcompanies,amorerecentstudythatlooksatUSstocksfrom1926to2009findstherelationshiptobeaweakone,thoughitdoesconfirmthattherearesubperiodswheremomentumandfirmsizearecorrelated.

3. UpsidevsDownside:Theconclusionsseemtovary,dependingonthetimeperiodexamined,withupsidemomentumdominatingoververylongtimeperiods(1926-2009)anddownsidemomentumwinningoutoversomesub-periods(1980-1996).

4. Growtheffect:Pricemomentumismoresustainedandstrongerforhighergrowthcompanieswithhigherpricetobookratiosthanformorematurecompanieswithlowerpricetobookratios.

10

4.LongTermSerialCorrelation:Overmanyyears

11

Thetippingpoint…Momentumworks,untilitdoesnot..

!

12

ExtremeMomentum:Bubbles..

• Lookingattheevidenceonpricepatterns,thereisevidenceofbothpricemomentum(inthemediumterm)andpricereversal(intheshortandreallylongterm).

• Readtogether,youhavethebasisforpricebubbles:themomentumcreatesthebubbleandthecrashrepresentsthereversal.

• Throughthecenturies,marketshaveboomedandbusted,andintheaftermathofeverybust,irrationalinvestorshavebeenblamedforthecrash.

13

BlooperversusBubble

¨ Blooper¤ Rationalmarketscanmakemistakes.Assessmentsofvaluearebasedupon

expectations,whichareformedwiththeinformationthatisavailableatthetimeoftheassessments.Youwillbewrongalotofthetimeandverywrongsomeofthetime.

¤ Itisthereforeentirelypossibleandverylikely,eveninanefficientmarket,toseesignificantpricingerrors.

¨ Bubble¤ Abubbleisawillfulerror,suggestiveofirrationalbehavioratsomelevel.¤ Thisirrationalbehaviormanifestsitselfasanunwillingnessorincapacityon

thepartofinvestorsinthemarkettofaceuptoreality.¨ Separatingbloopersfrombubblesisdifficult.Thereisatendencyonthe

partofsome(theanti-marketefficiencycrowd)toviewallbigpriceadjustmentsasevidenceofbubbles,justasthereisatendencyonthepartoftheothers(thetruebelieversinmarketefficiency)toviewallbigpriceadjustmentsasevidenceofbloopers.

14

TheBottomLine

¨ Arestockpricescorrelatedovertime?Yes,butinwhatdirectionandhowmuchdependsonyourtimehorizonandthethetypeofstockthatyouarelookingat.¤ Withshortertimehorizons(daystomonths),momentumstrategies,whereyoubuypastperiodwinnersandsellpastperiodlosersseemstowinout.

¤ Asthetimehorizonlengthenstoyears,reversalstrategiesseemtobebetter,whereyousellpastperiodwinnersandbuypastlosers.

¤ Withboththesestrategies,theriskisthatyouareoffonyourtiming.

¨ Allthesestrategiesworkbetteroflessliquid,highergrowthandsmallercapstocksthanonlargercap,moreliquidstocks.