prospects for co 2 capture and storage energy technology scenarios technologies and costs of co 2...

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Technologies and Costs of CO2 Sequestration

Jacek Podkanski, Dolf GielenInternational Energy Agency

Policy and Strategy of Sustainable Energy Development for Central and Eastern European Countries until 2030

Warsaw, Poland, 22-23 November 2005

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Carbon Capture & StorageResearch, Development, Demonstration and Deployment

● US: FutureGen● EU: Hypogen● Canadian Clean Power Coalition● Australia● Germany: COORETEC ● UK● Norway ● France ● Italy● Japan,…

Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum

International Energy Agency

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

World Energy Council Bilateral Agreements, …

Alstom ExxonMobilBP EniTecnologie SpAChevronTexacoEPRI Shell InternationalRWE AG TotalRio Tinto, Schlumberger,…

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Carbon Capture & Storage at the International Energy Agency

IEA Working Party on Fossil Fuels

IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme

IEA Clean Coal Centre

IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board

Secretariat

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Prospects for CO2 Capture and Storage

What is CO2 capture & storage?

What are the costs?

How does the cost-effectiveness of CCS compare to other emission reduction options?

What will it take to bring CO2 capture and storage to market?

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

What is CO2 capture & storage?

Capturing CO2 from the gas streams emitted during electricity production, industrial processes or fuel processing

Transporting the captured CO2 by pipeline or in tankers

Storing CO2 underground in deep saline aquifers, depleted oil and gas reservoirs or unminable coal seams

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Capture – Technology Status

CO2 capture is a proven technology

It reduces emissions by 85-95%

But its energy efficiency can be further improved and cost must be reduced

This requires integrated power plant and CO2 capture designs

Most of these advanced designs are not yet proven on a commercial scale

Examples: new chemical absorbents, oxyfueling, hydrogen combined cycles, IGCC, USCSC, chemical looping, fuel cells

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Capture - Opportunities

Fossil fueled power plants

Biomass fueled power plants

Certain industrial processes

Synfuels production

Natural gas processing

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Aquifer storage: demonstration

CO2-EOR: demonstration

CO2-EGR: pilot

CO2-ECBM: pilot

Storage – Technology Status

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Storage - Capacity

1,000-10,000 Gt aquifer storage capacity

100-120 Gt depleted oil fields/EOR

700-800 Gt depleted gas fields/EGR

20 Gt ECBM

Fixation mechanisms reduce risk

Monitoring is feasible and cheap

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Costs - overview

Capture (incl. compression)Current: 5 – 50 USD/tCO2 av.

Future: 5 - 30 USD/tCO2 av.

Coal-fired power plants 10 – 25 USD/tCO2 av.

Gas-fired power plants 25 – 30 USD/tCO2 av.

Transportation 2 – 20 USD/tCO2 av.

Injection 2 – 50 USD/tCO2 av.

Revenues -55 – 0 USD/tCO2 av.

Total -40 – 100 USD/tCO2 av.

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Capture (electricity)- adds presently 2-3 UScents/kWh- long term 1-2 UScents/kWh

Fuel, technology

Electricefficiency

[%]

Capture costs

[$/t CO2 capt]

Electricity costs

[Mils/kWh]

Additional electricity costs

[Mils/kWh]

Likely technologiesCoal, steam cycle, CA (2010) 31 24 51.0 21.9Coal, steam cycle, membranes +CA (2020) 36 21 46.3 17.1

Coal, USC, membranes +CA (2030) 42 17 49.0 17.5Coal, IGCC, Selexol (2010) 38 20 52.3 14.9Coal, IGCC, Selexol (2020) 40 11 41.0 8.0Gas, CC, CA (2010) 47 29 36.8 10.7Gas, CC, Selexol, OxF (2020) 51 25 34.8 9.6

Black liquor, IGCC (2020) 25 4 27.9 4.4Biomass, IGCC (2025) 33 23 96.1 21.5Speculative technologiesCoal, CFB, Chemical looping (2020) 39 14 38.2 14.7

Gas, CC, Chemical looping (2025) 56 33 34.5 9.3

Coal, IGCC & SOFC (2035) 56 13 49.0 7.7Gas, CC & SOFC (2030) 66 28 39.2 8.6

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Costs – general comments

CCS costs competitive with other CO2 abatement options

Coal without CCS has no future in a CO2-constrained world

Electricity from coal or gas-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage is still cheaper than most renewables (fuel price dependent)

Efficiency first

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

How does the cost-effectiveness of CCS compare to other emission reduction options?Scenario analysis

Scenarios produced using IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) model

Based on ETSAP-MARKAL

Systems engineering/partial equilibrium model

Global, 15-regions

Detailed representation of technologies on both the demand and supply sides (1500 new techs)

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Model

Covers carbon capture and storage and competing emission mitigation options;

ETP BASE scenario calibrated with WEO Reference Scenario;

Detailed scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis to map cost-effective CCS potentials and uncertainties.

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Global CO2 emissions

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Emission stabilisationMarginal CO2 abatement cost

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

CO2 price

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Capture at various CO2 prices

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

[Gt

CO

2/yr

]

GLO100

GLO50

GLO25

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Share of CCS in total CO2 emissions mitigation

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

CO2 capture by process area

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

CO2 capture by technology

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

IGCC and steam cycles

Steam cycles and IGCC are competing options for coal-based electricity generation with CO2 capture and storage

Without synfuel cogeneration in IGCC installations the CCS potential declines by 30%

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

COCO22 emissions from electricity emissions from electricity generationgeneration

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

[Gto

n C

O2]

0$10$25$25$ NoCCS50$50$ NoCCS

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Electricity production mix

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Electricity production by power plants fitted with CCS, by region

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Fuel market implications:CCS impact on coal use at 50$/t CO2

0

100

200

300

400

No CO2 policy 50 US$/t CO2,CCS

50 US$/t CO2,no CCS

2000 2050 2050 2050

[EJ/

yr]

CCS impact

2050: 50$/t CO2 results in 80% or 40% decline in coal use, depending on availability of CCS

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Overview of sensitivity analysis results (influence on CO2 captured and stored in 2050)

CCS only in OECD countries -50% to -80%

CO2 pricing delayed by 15 years -10%

Different CO2 pricing

(25 – 100 USD/t CO2, basis: 50 USD)

-50% to +30%

Nuclear power allowed to grow -40%

No IGCC for synfuel cogeneration -30%

Cheaper renewables because of investment policies & technology learning

-50%

Additional electricity savings (10% more) -15%

GDP growth 2.2% to 3.2% (basis: 2.8%) -15% to +15%

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Challenges

RD&D gaps

Public awareness and acceptance

Legal and regulatory framework

Long-term policy framework and

incentives

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

RD&D gaps

More proof of storage needed

CO2 capture demonstration needed

0.5-1 bln per demonstration plant

Present spending 100 MUSD/yr

A fivefold increase of RD&D needed

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Long-term policy framework andincentives

In addition to the acceleration of RD&D funding, countries should create a level-playing field for CCS alongside other climate change mitigation technologies. This includes ensuring that various climate change mitigation instruments, including market-oriented trading schemes, are adapted to include CCS.

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

Conclusions

CCS can play a key role in addressing global warmingmainly through coal plants in coal-rich regionsbut also some natural gas opportunities

Carbon incentives are needed, but also:Proven technologyAcceptable storage

PROSPECTS FOR

CO2 CAPTURE AND

STORAGE

Energy Technology Scenarios

jacek.podkanski@iea.org

Thank you