r. d. shelton
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Relations Between National Research Investment Input and Publication Output: Application to an American ParadoxR. D. Shelton
Sponsored by a sabbatical from Loyola and NSF Grant ENG-0423742
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Whats the Problem?European Paradox is the perceived failure of Europe to cash in on its leadership of science publishingI use "American Paradox" to mean the long term decline in U.S. share of science publishing, despite world-leading investments in R&D, particularly as that decline has become worseWhy is todays subjectThe methods are also useful for other countries; e.g. the EU is developing the same syndrome
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The American Paradox: Declining SCI Paper Shares Despite Huge R&D Investments (GERD*)
*Gross domestic expenditures on R&D (OECD Constant $ PPP), paper share from NSI CD 2004.
Paper Share %NSF analyzed paradox for 6 years.
GERD $Billions320
160
Chart1
18.187439.74
20.29147539.57
22.60077539.03
25.71862539.3
28.804739.05
30.1404538.88
31.66662538.78
33.55052538.61
35.556438.5
38.09717538.55
40.3469538.83
41.45867537.86
41.53662538.16
42.40312537.07
46.0192537.01
49.44802535.82
53.177235.28
57.02712534.73
61.3689534.18
66.94187533.94
69.4550533.98
69.0650533.55
73.1093533.43
US GERD
US Paper Share
Sheet1
From ISI 2006
1EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198132.321396064319611USAall fields198139.55170826431961
2EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198232.391434884429662USAall fields198239.39174505442966
3EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198332.621474044519413USAall fields198338.86175626451941
4EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198432.421467014525404USAall fields198439.14177111452540
5EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198532.661583224847055USAall fields198538.9188530484705
6EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198632.911654565027856USAall fields198638.73194750502785
7EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198733.111662125020027USAall fields198738.65194016502002
8EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198832.761708715216258USAall fields198838.48200709521625
9EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198933.211802105426529USAall fields198938.33207993542652
10EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199033.418629955778910USAall fields199038.41214249557789
11EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199133.7119193356944011USAall fields199138.69220323569440
12EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199234.3720858460686012USAall fields199237.74229036606860
13EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199335.0821060760031213USAall fields199338.02228268600312
14EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199436.7423347663543114USAall fields199436.96234849635431
15EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199537.0124631366552115USAall fields199536.89245509665521
16EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199637.8825606267603116USAall fields199635.71241411676031
17EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199738.3826131268085517USAall fields199735.19239596680855
18EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199839.3927850370700618USAall fields199834.61244664707006
19EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199939.3428367272109619USAall fields199934.06245630721096
20EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200039.4328314271805920USAall fields200033.81242790718059
21EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200139.4429061473691121USAall fields200133.87249569736911
22EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200238.9128525473307622USAall fields200233.44245111733076
23EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200338.5630746979734423USAall fields200333.34265808797344
24EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200437.9729119576698124USAall fields200433.21254740766981
25EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200537.833367888286025USAall fields200532.7288714882860
GERD
INDICATOR: 1. Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D -- GERD (million current PPP $)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
EU25............................138545.1144346.5151113.6158447.8169207.7182728.5194898.6205171.8211252.8....
EU1556911.5..66437.172177.380180.585237.591770.498690106948.8115239.5121281.3123770.4125963.8128859.5133650.4139159.1145364.8152508.9163028.1176039.5187664.6197664.2203519.6....
INDICATOR: 1. Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D -- GERD (million current PPP $)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
United States72749.681165.990403.1102874.5115218.8120561.8126666.5134202.1142225.6152388.7161387.8165834.7166146.5169612.5184077197792.1212708.8228108.5245475.8267767.5277820.2276260.2292437.4312535.4..
Paper Share
from 2006 CD
EU2532.3232.3932.6232.4232.6632.9133.1132.7633.2133.433.7134.3735.0836.7437.0137.8838.3839.3939.3439.4339.4438.9138.5637.9737.8
US39.5539.3938.8639.1438.938.7338.6538.4838.3338.4138.6937.7438.0236.9636.8935.7135.1934.6134.0633.8133.8733.4433.3433.2132.7
Paper Share
from 2004 CD
EU1530.5830.8830.9430.7831.2231.4931.7431.3931.8232.0932.4133.1333.7134.7835.0435.8536.3837.3637.2337.2237.1936.5936.22
US39.7439.5739.0339.339.0538.8838.7838.6138.538.5538.8337.8638.1637.0737.0135.8235.2834.7334.1833.9433.9833.5533.43
GERDEU1556.911566.437172.177380.180585.237591.770498.69106.9488115.2395121.2813123.7704125.9638128.8595133.6504139.1591145.3648152.5089163.0281176.0395187.6646197.6642203.5196....
US72.749681.165990.4031102.8745115.2188120.5618126.6665134.2021142.2256152.3887161.3878165.8347166.1465169.6125184.077197.7921212.7088228.1085245.4758267.7675277.8202276.2602292.4374312.5354..
GERD/4EU1514.22787516.60927518.04432520.04512521.30937522.942624.672526.737228.80987530.32032530.942631.4909532.21487533.412634.78977536.341238.12722540.75702544.00987546.9161549.4160550.8799
US18.187420.29147522.60077525.71862528.804730.1404531.66662533.55052535.556438.09717540.3469541.45867541.53662542.40312546.0192549.44802553.177257.02712561.3689566.94187569.4550569.0650573.1093578.13385
Paper ShareEU1530.5830.8830.9430.7831.2231.4931.7431.3931.8232.0932.4133.1333.7134.7835.0435.8536.3837.3637.2337.2237.1936.5936.22
2004 CDUS39.7439.5739.0339.339.0538.8838.7838.6138.538.5538.8337.8638.1637.0737.0135.8235.2834.7334.1833.9433.9833.5533.43
1EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198130.58133006434969
2EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198230.88137690445949
3EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198330.94140685454746
4EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198430.78140158455295
5EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198531.22152273487682
6EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198631.49159279505851
7EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198731.74160195504640
8EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198831.39164572524364
9EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198931.82173609545609
10EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199032.09179990560819
11EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199132.41185534572530
12EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199233.13202089609955
13EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199333.71203318603190
14EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199434.78222021638384
15EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199535.04234110668182
16EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199635.85243042677996
17EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199736.38248520683063
18EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199837.36264816708862
19EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199937.23269262723210
20EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200037.22268418721087
21EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200137.19275149739891
22EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200236.59269215735834
23EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200336.22289471799147
24USAall fields198139.74172836434969
25USAall fields198239.57176452445949
26USAall fields198339.03177469454746
27USAall fields198439.3178937455295
28USAall fields198539.05190460487682
29USAall fields198638.88196657505851
30USAall fields198738.78195707504640
31USAall fields198838.61202466524364
32USAall fields198938.5210036545609
33USAall fields199038.55216194560819
34USAall fields199138.83222306572530
35USAall fields199237.86230936609955
36USAall fields199338.16230155603190
37USAall fields199437.07236625638384
38USAall fields199537.01247280668182
39USAall fields199635.82242828677996
40USAall fields199735.28240989683063
41USAall fields199834.73246160708862
42USAall fields199934.18247213723210
43USAall fields200033.94244754721087
44USAall fields200133.98251380739891
45USAall fields200233.55246885735834
46USAall fields200333.43267162799147
Sheet1
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
EU15 GERD
US GERD
EU15 Paper Share
US Paper Share
Sheet2
Sheet3
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EU Recently Developed the Same SyndromePaper Share %GERD $Billions320160
Chart1
14.22787518.187430.5839.74
198220.29147530.8839.57
16.60927522.60077530.9439.03
18.04432525.71862530.7839.3
20.04512528.804731.2239.05
21.30937530.1404531.4938.88
22.942631.66662531.7438.78
24.672533.55052531.3938.61
26.737235.556431.8238.5
28.80987538.09717532.0938.55
30.32032540.3469532.4138.83
30.942641.45867533.1337.86
31.4909541.53662533.7138.16
32.21487542.40312534.7837.07
33.412646.0192535.0437.01
34.78977549.44802535.8535.82
36.341253.177236.3835.28
38.12722557.02712537.3634.73
40.75702561.3689537.2334.18
44.00987566.94187537.2233.94
46.9161569.4550537.1933.98
49.4160569.0650536.5933.55
50.879973.1093536.2233.43
EU15 GERD
US GERD
EU15 Paper Share
US Paper Share
Sheet1
From ISI 2006
1EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198132.321396064319611USAall fields198139.55170826431961
2EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198232.391434884429662USAall fields198239.39174505442966
3EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198332.621474044519413USAall fields198338.86175626451941
4EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198432.421467014525404USAall fields198439.14177111452540
5EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198532.661583224847055USAall fields198538.9188530484705
6EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198632.911654565027856USAall fields198638.73194750502785
7EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198733.111662125020027USAall fields198738.65194016502002
8EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198832.761708715216258USAall fields198838.48200709521625
9EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198933.211802105426529USAall fields198938.33207993542652
10EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199033.418629955778910USAall fields199038.41214249557789
11EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199133.7119193356944011USAall fields199138.69220323569440
12EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199234.3720858460686012USAall fields199237.74229036606860
13EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199335.0821060760031213USAall fields199338.02228268600312
14EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199436.7423347663543114USAall fields199436.96234849635431
15EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199537.0124631366552115USAall fields199536.89245509665521
16EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199637.8825606267603116USAall fields199635.71241411676031
17EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199738.3826131268085517USAall fields199735.19239596680855
18EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199839.3927850370700618USAall fields199834.61244664707006
19EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199939.3428367272109619USAall fields199934.06245630721096
20EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200039.4328314271805920USAall fields200033.81242790718059
21EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200139.4429061473691121USAall fields200133.87249569736911
22EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200238.9128525473307622USAall fields200233.44245111733076
23EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200338.5630746979734423USAall fields200333.34265808797344
24EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200437.9729119576698124USAall fields200433.21254740766981
25EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200537.833367888286025USAall fields200532.7288714882860
GERD
INDICATOR: 1. Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D -- GERD (million current PPP $)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
EU25............................138545.1144346.5151113.6158447.8169207.7182728.5194898.6205171.8211252.8....
EU1556911.5..66437.172177.380180.585237.591770.498690106948.8115239.5121281.3123770.4125963.8128859.5133650.4139159.1145364.8152508.9163028.1176039.5187664.6197664.2203519.6....
INDICATOR: 1. Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D -- GERD (million current PPP $)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
United States72749.681165.990403.1102874.5115218.8120561.8126666.5134202.1142225.6152388.7161387.8165834.7166146.5169612.5184077197792.1212708.8228108.5245475.8267767.5277820.2276260.2292437.4312535.4..
Paper Share
from 2006 CD
EU2532.3232.3932.6232.4232.6632.9133.1132.7633.2133.433.7134.3735.0836.7437.0137.8838.3839.3939.3439.4339.4438.9138.5637.9737.8
US39.5539.3938.8639.1438.938.7338.6538.4838.3338.4138.6937.7438.0236.9636.8935.7135.1934.6134.0633.8133.8733.4433.3433.2132.7
Paper Share
from 2004 CD
EU1530.5830.8830.9430.7831.2231.4931.7431.3931.8232.0932.4133.1333.7134.7835.0435.8536.3837.3637.2337.2237.1936.5936.22
US39.7439.5739.0339.339.0538.8838.7838.6138.538.5538.8337.8638.1637.0737.0135.8235.2834.7334.1833.9433.9833.5533.43
GERDEU1556.911566.437172.177380.180585.237591.770498.69106.9488115.2395121.2813123.7704125.9638128.8595133.6504139.1591145.3648152.5089163.0281176.0395187.6646197.6642203.5196....
US72.749681.165990.4031102.8745115.2188120.5618126.6665134.2021142.2256152.3887161.3878165.8347166.1465169.6125184.077197.7921212.7088228.1085245.4758267.7675277.8202276.2602292.4374312.5354..
GERD/4EU1514.22787516.60927518.04432520.04512521.30937522.942624.672526.737228.80987530.32032530.942631.4909532.21487533.412634.78977536.341238.12722540.75702544.00987546.9161549.4160550.8799
US18.187420.29147522.60077525.71862528.804730.1404531.66662533.55052535.556438.09717540.3469541.45867541.53662542.40312546.0192549.44802553.177257.02712561.3689566.94187569.4550569.0650573.1093578.13385
Paper ShareEU1530.5830.8830.9430.7831.2231.4931.7431.3931.8232.0932.4133.1333.7134.7835.0435.8536.3837.3637.2337.2237.1936.5936.22
2004 CDUS39.7439.5739.0339.339.0538.8838.7838.6138.538.5538.8337.8638.1637.0737.0135.8235.2834.7334.1833.9433.9833.5533.43
1EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198130.58133006434969
2EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198230.88137690445949
3EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198330.94140685454746
4EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198430.78140158455295
5EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198531.22152273487682
6EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198631.49159279505851
7EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198731.74160195504640
8EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198831.39164572524364
9EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198931.82173609545609
10EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199032.09179990560819
11EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199132.41185534572530
12EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199233.13202089609955
13EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199333.71203318603190
14EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199434.78222021638384
15EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199535.04234110668182
16EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199635.85243042677996
17EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199736.38248520683063
18EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199837.36264816708862
19EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199937.23269262723210
20EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200037.22268418721087
21EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200137.19275149739891
22EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200236.59269215735834
23EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200336.22289471799147
24USAall fields198139.74172836434969
25USAall fields198239.57176452445949
26USAall fields198339.03177469454746
27USAall fields198439.3178937455295
28USAall fields198539.05190460487682
29USAall fields198638.88196657505851
30USAall fields198738.78195707504640
31USAall fields198838.61202466524364
32USAall fields198938.5210036545609
33USAall fields199038.55216194560819
34USAall fields199138.83222306572530
35USAall fields199237.86230936609955
36USAall fields199338.16230155603190
37USAall fields199437.07236625638384
38USAall fields199537.01247280668182
39USAall fields199635.82242828677996
40USAall fields199735.28240989683063
41USAall fields199834.73246160708862
42USAall fields199934.18247213723210
43USAall fields200033.94244754721087
44USAall fields200133.98251380739891
45USAall fields200233.55246885735834
46USAall fields200333.43267162799147
Sheet1
EU15 GERD
US GERD
EU15 Paper Share
US Paper Share
Sheet2
Sheet3
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OutlineIs it just that the SCI is a rubber ruler? (Hint: no)Which inputs are most important: a regression approach (Hint: look for the money, but not just any money.)A theory that can account for U.S. (and EU) decline, and forecast the future (Hint: it's simple, m = kw)
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1. Is it Just That the SCI is a Rubber Ruler?
Hypothesis: In response to criticism that it is biased toward English language and the U.S., the Science Citation Index may have changed to be less favorable to the U.S. This could account for some of the rapid decline in U.S. publication since 1995.Method: For a sample of 8 fields, partition their journals into 2 sets: New journals added to the SCI after 1994, and Old added before.Then measure U.S. share of each journal to see if difference between Old and New is significant
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Example Analysis of U.S. Share in SCI
Chart2
51.02682313551.0268231350
47.70020157647.7002015760
47.730739893247.73073989320
49.812734082449.81273408240
53.165457390853.357193987122.7272727273
44.966540587746.811126479212.2615803815
47.490266231750.180464696610.0470957614
49.50233597452.641291810826.3605442177
US Share
Share Old Journals
Share New Journals
Percent
US Share of Space Science Papers
Sheet1
DateAnalyst_________Field_________
Number of Papers in Old Journals vs. New Journals
World TotalUS Total
1983198619891992199519982001200419831986198919921995199820012004
New Journals
Grp No
100004436763711760000104564310
2
3
4
New Totals00004436763711760000104564310
Old Journals
Grp No
14772545752445607698565078866867024352603250327933727304644494564
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Old Totals4772545752445607698565078866867024352603250327933727304644494564
Grand Totals4772545752445607702968749503984624352603250327933737309145134874
Share51.02682313547.70020157647.730739893249.812734082453.165457390844.966540587747.490266231749.502335974
Share Old51.02682313547.70020157647.730739893249.812734082453.357193987146.811126479250.180464696652.6412918108
Share New000022.727272727312.261580381510.047095761426.3605442177
Sheet1
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
US Share
Share Old Journals
Share New Journals
Percent
US Share of Space Science Papers
Sheet2
DateAnalyst_________Field_________
Number of Papers in Old Journals vs. New Journals
World TotalUS Total
1983198619891992199519982000200120022003200419831986198919921995199820002001200220032004
New Journals
Grp No
100004436754763768610521176000010457264131251310
2
3
4
New Totals00004436754763768610521176000010457264131251310
Old Journals
Grp No
14772545752445607698565078123886683559057867024352603250327933727304642024449416647034564
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Old Totals4772545752445607698565078123886683559057867024352603250327933727304642024449416647034564
Grand Totals47725457524456077029687486709503904110109984624352603250327933737309142744513429749544874
Share51.02682313547.70020157647.730739893249.812734082453.165457390844.966540587749.296424452147.490266231747.527928326549.005836383449.502335974
Share Old51.02682313547.70020157647.730739893249.812734082453.357193987146.811126479251.729656530850.180464696649.862357869551.926686540852.6412918108
Share New000022.727272727312.261580381513.162705667310.047095761419.096209912523.859315589426.3605442177
Sheet2
000
000
000
000
000
Overall Share
Old Journal Share
New Journal Share
Expanded Scale for Recent Years Space Sci
Sheet3
-
Sample of 8 Fields of ScienceWorking paper at http://itri2.org/Bpaper/current.doc
Chart1
49.50233597452.641291810826.3605442177
44.323867239844.568399398742.3324742268
30.299832391831.248511786626.8945868946
25.885712090825.590106963927.5752364574
33.713692946135.174471713121.055408971
17.788606148117.837198121217.5769292734
35.290264472334.256329113938.0089153046
28.421245086428.05522413529.9275192892
28.876410004929.192896739627.2729977389
All Journals
Old Journals
New Journals
Percent
US Share of Journals
Sheet1
Table 4. US Share in Percent
19891995200420042004
JournalsAllAllAllOldNew
Field
Space Science47.753.449.552.626.4
Immunology42.743.544.344.642.3
Math41.136.630.331.226.9
Engineering35.632.225.925.627.6
MicroBiology35.734.133.735.221.1
Materials Science27.026.117.817.817.6
Computer Science41.937.535.334.338.0
Pharmacology34.233.528.428.129.9
Totals36.334.128.929.227.3
Sheet1
All Journals
Old Journals
New Journals
Percent
US Share of Journals
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
Conclusions from Bias StudyIn some fields (space science, math, and microbiology) New journals were much less favorable to the U.S. But, in some fields the opposite was true In aggregate over 8 fields the change in bias was too small to account for the sharp changes in national shares Most share differences between Old and New journals are not statistically significantTherefore, hypothesis is not proven, and is unlikely over 24 fields in the National Science Indicator CD Thus the shifts in national shares are real, and are probably not an artifact of the SCI database
-
2. Since Total GERD Is Not Increasing U.S. Papers, Which Inputs are Most Important?
Multiple Linear Regression Can Help Identify WhichNational Publication Systems (The Black Box)Resources In
Papers Out
-
A Simple Regression Scattergram for 1999This example has only one IV, of course.
Regression Line: Papers99 = 4282 + 0.950 GERD99 Slope is about 1 paper / $1 million, and R = 0.983.U.S. and Japan are far off the graph to the upper right
-
Multiple Linear Regressions: Drilling Down with 2 Independent Variables (IV) per LevelDV is papers out. Significance level is 0.05, but IV1 is always very significant (Sig. 0.000). R > 0.9 always.Level1. IV1 = GERD (Total national R&D) IV2 = Number of Researchers (not significant)
Level2. IV1 = Government Investment part of GERD IV2 = Private Sector Investment (not significant)
Level3. IV1 = Civil Part of Government Investment IV2 = Government Defense Investment (less significant and a smaller coefficient)
Details in table in Appendix
-
Regression Findings: In Producing PapersResearch investments are much more important than the number of researchers. Government investments are much more important than those from industry. Government investments in non-defense sectors are somewhat more important than their investment in defense. For 2003 the ratio of their IV coefficients has increased to 2. Not surprising to bibliometricians, but regression quantifies these statements. Causality cant be proven, but strong and weak associations can be found.
-
Is This Why the EU Passed the U.S. in Science Publishing in 1995? (Greater Government Non-Defense R&D)May account for EU gaining on U.S. before 1995, but we still need to find why loss of U.S. share accelerated then, here shown as leveling of US Papers curve
Chart1
13300624487.69417283615315.69
13769026892.641617645214048.735
14068528597.946917746913840.176
14015830289.03417893714944.332
15227332419.095819046016213.275
15927933747.9819665716347.443
16019535857.384519570717919.666
16457237882.692120246619032.132
17360940146.670421003621429.675
17999043273.081121619423854.094
18553447538.288622230626556.491
20208949230.643323093628316.772
20331849408.57923015528652.44
22202149216.48723662530543.957
23411051333.32624728031575.069
24304252864.585224282831279.197
24852053997.516424098932029.0251
26481654937.130424616033768.0333
26926256760.0324721336334.1628
26841863070.358424475440468.45
27514962850.778225138045295.0245
26921560561.428424688549364.1593
28947162033.65326716247580.3965
EU15 Papers
EU15 Govt Civil R&D
US Papers
US Govt Civil R&D
Papers and $Million
US and EU Papers and Government Civil R&D
Sheet1
INDICATOR: 60. Defence Budget R&D as a percentage of Total GBAORD
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
EU152321.922.122.823.322.822.322.122.422.720.619.118.617.916.416.315.614.814.513.615.416.416.5....
INDICATOR: 60. Defence Budget R&D as a percentage of Total GBAORD
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
United States54.661.164.366.267.569.368.667.865.562.659.758.65955.354.154.755.354.153.251.650.552.159.755.856.6
INDICATOR: 59. Total Government Budget Appropriations or Outlays for R&D -- GBAORD (million current PPP $)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
EU1531802.234433.636711.139234.542267.44371546148.548629.951735.455980.759871.960853.760698.55994761403.563159.663978.164480.26638672998.174291.772441.974291.8....
INDICATOR: 59. Total Government Budget Appropriations or Outlays for R&D -- GBAORD (million current PPP $)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
United States3373536115387684421449887532495706959106621156378165897683986988468331687916904971653.373568.777637.183612.591505.1103056.7118065.5126451.5131906.1
EU15 Govt
Civil2448826893285983028932419337483585737883401474327347538492314940949216513335286553998549375676063070628516056162034
Defense731575418113894598489967102911074711589127081233411623112901073110070102959981954396269928114411188012258
US Govt
Civil1531614049138401494416213163471792019032214302385426556283172865230544315753127932029337683633440468452954936447580
Defense1841922066249282927033674369023914940074406853992739341400814123237787372163777039624398014130343144462105369370485
PapersEU15 GovtPapersUS Govt24USAall fields1981172836
YearEU-15CivilDefenseUSCivilDefense25USAall fields1982176452
1EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198113300624487.6947314.50617283615315.6918419.3126USAall fields1983177469
2EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198213769026892.64167540.958417645214048.73522066.26527USAall fields1984178937
3EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198314068528597.94698113.153117746913840.17624927.82428USAall fields1985190460
4EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198414015830289.0348945.46617893714944.33229269.66829USAall fields1986196657
5EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198515227332419.09589848.304219046016213.27533673.72530USAall fields1987195707
6EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198615927933747.989967.0219665716347.44336901.55731USAall fields1988202466
7EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198716019535857.384510291.115519570717919.66639149.33432USAall fields1989210036
8EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198816457237882.692110747.207920246619032.13240073.86833USAall fields1990216194
9EUROPEAN UNIONall fields198917360940146.670411588.729621003621429.67540685.32534USAall fields1991222306
10EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199017999043273.081112707.618921619423854.09439926.90635USAall fields1992230936
11EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199118553447538.288612333.611422230626556.49139340.50936USAall fields1993230155
12EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199220208949230.643311623.056723093628316.77240081.22837USAall fields1994236625
13EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199320331849408.57911289.92123015528652.4441231.5638USAall fields1995247280
14EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199422202149216.48710730.51323662530543.95737787.04339USAall fields1996242828
15EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199523411051333.32610070.17424728031575.06937215.93140USAall fields1997240989
16EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199624304252864.585210295.014824282831279.19737769.80341USAall fields1998246160
17EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199724852053997.51649980.583624098932029.025139624.274942USAall fields1999247213
18EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199826481654937.13049543.069624616033768.033339800.666743USAall fields2000244754
19EUROPEAN UNIONall fields199926926256760.039625.9724721336334.162841302.937244USAall fields2001251380
20EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200026841863070.35849927.741624475440468.4543144.0545USAall fields2002246885
21EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200127514962850.778211440.921825138045295.024546210.075546USAall fields2003267162
22EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200226921560561.428411880.471624688549364.159353692.5407
23EUROPEAN UNIONall fields200328947162033.65312258.14726716247580.396570485.1035
Sheet1
EU Civil
EU Defense
US Civil
US Defense
$Millions Current PPP
Govt R&D Investment
Sheet2
EU15 Papers
EU15 Govt Civil R&D
US Papers
US Govt Civil R&D
Papers and $Million
US and EU Papers and Government Civil R&D
Sheet3
-
Conclusions from RegressionMoney is the key input variable, but some types of investments are more effectiveU.S. Government investments are not as efficient at producing papers as in the EU: too much defense R&D, and not enough NSFThese inefficiencies may account for the EU passing the U.S. in papers, but are not large enough to account for the recent sharp decline in U.S. paper share
-
3. A Theory That Can Account for U.S. Decline, and Predict its (Bleak) Future
Since we cant blame the recent sharp decline in U.S. share on a rubber ruler from SCI or inefficient allocations by the U.S., we have to cast a wider net overseas, in fact.We will look at four regions: US, EU-15, "Asian Tigers" (China, Taiwan, S. Korea, and Singapore), and rest of the world (ROW). Usually the world will be the OECD countries, including affiliates.
-
More Detailed Model of Publication System (Inside the Black Box)$ InputsUSEUATROWPapersPublishedNational Research Systems -- Fairly IndependentHighly Interdependent Paper SelectionJournalEditorsg1p1G (total)P (total)wi = gi/GGERD sharemi = pi/PPaper share
-
Search for a Model of SystemSince SCI does not increase P much in a year, total papers is almost a zero-sum game, and is one for share mi (on a fractional count basis)Thus competition with other nations strongly influences U.S. successWe know that the critical input is money, but we need a U.S. series that declines to get a strong positive R with declining U.S. paper share
-
US GERD has risen, but others have risen faster. Is the shape of this curve familiar? An Input Series that Involves Both the Investments of the U.S. and Others.
Chart1
44.521076953144.5210769531
44.743254013444.7432540134
45.47825603245.1054316583
46.355476232846.3554762328
46.324016837545.9747642567
45.998058137545.9980581375
45.293817634244.9994056341
44.690019590344.6900195903
43.788162057143.5282344044
43.231074763840.1164380751
42.282841991238.443247162
42.271505539239.6033295772
41.826759246338.8862442025
41.511854730638.714176427
41.727306545638.5726492626
42.120358101138.6820418416
42.596494312338.6000753243
43.276343037639.2961878794
43.679818682139.168788139
43.865164168138.7156111971
43.078828368537.4451483745
42.421352956136.2845514236
42.062953954235.3930296937
US Share of OECD
US Share of OECD and Affliates
Percent
wus = U.S. Share of GERD
Sheet1
INDICATOR: 3. GERD -- (million 2000 dollars -- constant prices and PPP)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
United States123126.6129683.4138972152357.1165548169413.7172997.2177320.3181071.1186728.5191111.3191823.4188041.9187950.9199886.4210716.4222916.4235058.4249343.1265194268294.9266177.7268439....
INDICATOR: 3. GERD -- (million 2000 dollars -- constant prices and PPP)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Total OECD276558289839305579328671.2357369.7368306.2381944.4396778.3413516.1431931.2451983.1453788.9449573.2452764.4479030.2500272.1523321543156.8570842.8604566.3622799.9627461.6638183.9....
INDICATOR: 3. GERD -- (million 2000 dollars -- constant prices and PPP)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Argentina..............................1704.21851.71884.92007.31927.61782.91454.91670.1....
China....................14841.517081.61867519233.519348.421190.226457.82934236955.74830055560.668827.380606.6....
Israel....................2063.42259.72434.92594.52853.531823552.83890.64588.76047.26389.86443.16375.66540.3..
Romania....................1036.91021.61117.5984.11089.2998.2770620.6503.3470.9531.5538.5599.3....
Russian Federation..................33535.124190.9102109217.987527850.88690.39406.18443.29799.711066.913038.514481.716028.2....
Singapore..........................705.88041044.21221.31480.31654.51801.51969.22077.32084.4....
Slovenia........................388449.1421.5371.4383.2413.8449473.1525.2532.5......
South Africa....2525.8..2714.8..2498.9..2469.3..3010..2162.7......2405.5......3249.3........
Chinese Taipei............................681072878133.18938.89785.21032610654.211767.212903.5....
Total Affliates002525.802714.802498.902469.333535.145142.730572.9339963271939177.444467.554181.555014.265743.480413.293701.2106122.5120267.76540.3
Total OECD276558289839308104.8328671.2360084.5368306.2384443.3396778.3415985.4465466.3497125.8484361.8483569.2485483.4518207.6544739.6577502.5598171636586.2684979.5716501.1733584.1758451.6
plus affliates
US GERD Share
Share of OECD44.521076953144.743254013445.47825603246.355476232846.324016837545.998058137545.293817634244.690019590343.788162057143.231074763842.282841991242.271505539241.826759246341.511854730641.727306545642.120358101142.596494312343.276343037643.679818682143.865164168143.078828368542.421352956142.0629539542
Share of Both44.521076953144.743254013445.105431658346.355476232845.974764256745.998058137544.999405634144.690019590343.528234404440.116438075138.44324716239.603329577238.886244202538.71417642738.572649262638.682041841638.600075324339.296187879439.16878813938.715611197137.445148374536.284551423635.3930296937
Sheet1
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
US Share of OECD
US Share of OECD and Affliates
Percent
US Share of OECD GERD
Sheet2
Sheet3
-
US Paper Share Depends More on Its Share of GERD Than Its Total GERD
Chart4
44.521076953139.74123.1266
44.743254013439.57129.6834
45.105431658339.03138.972
46.355476232839.3152.3571
45.974764256739.05165.548
45.998058137538.88169.4137
44.999405634138.78172.9972
44.690019590338.61177.3203
43.528234404438.5181.0711
40.116438075138.55186.7285
38.44324716238.83191.1113
39.603329577237.86191.8234
38.886244202538.16188.0419
38.71417642737.07187.9509
38.572649262637.01199.8864
38.682041841635.82210.7164
38.600075324335.28222.9164
39.296187879434.73235.0584
39.16878813934.18249.3431
38.715611197133.94265.194
37.445148374533.98268.2949
36.284551423633.55266.1777
35.393029693733.43268.439
GERD Share
Paper Share
GERD
Shares in Percent, GERD in $Billions
US Paper Share Compared to GERD and GERD Share
GERD
INDICATOR: 3. GERD -- (million 2000 dollars -- constant prices and PPP)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
EU25............................151280.4153902.4158384.8163923.6173594.7182792.6189729.3194297.2196270.3....
1982EU1596945.296945.2102770.2107671116000.3120574.7126332.8131438.9137304.3142278.1145086.5144695.8143842143989.5146068.4148497.9152429.3157820.4167287.1176103.1182730.9187311.4189105.2....
interpolated1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
United States123126.6129683.4138972152357.1165548169413.7172997.2177320.3181071.1186728.5191111.3191823.4188041.9187950.9199886.4210716.4222916.4235058.4249343.1265194268294.9266177.7268439....
INDICATOR: 3. GERD -- (million 2000 dollars -- constant prices and PPP)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Total OECD276558289839305579328671.2357369.7368306.2381944.4396778.3413516.1431931.2451983.1453788.9449573.2452764.4479030.2500272.1523321543156.8570842.8604566.3622799.9627461.6638183.9....
INDICATOR: 3. GERD -- (million 2000 dollars -- constant prices and PPP)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Argentina..............................1704.21851.71884.92007.31927.61782.91454.91670.1....
China....................14841.517081.61867519233.519348.421190.226457.82934236955.74830055560.668827.380606.6....
Israel....................2063.42259.72434.92594.52853.531823552.83890.64588.76047.26389.86443.16375.66540.3..
Romania....................1036.91021.61117.5984.11089.2998.2770620.6503.3470.9531.5538.5599.3....
Russian Federation..................33535.124190.9102109217.987527850.88690.39406.18443.29799.711066.913038.514481.716028.2....
Singapore..........................705.88041044.21221.31480.31654.51801.51969.22077.32084.4....
Slovenia........................388449.1421.5371.4383.2413.8449473.1525.2532.5......
South Africa....2525.8..2714.8..2498.9..2469.3..3010..2162.7......2405.5......3249.3........
Chinese Taipei............................681072878133.18938.89785.21032610654.211767.212903.5....
Total Affliates002525.802714.802498.902469.333535.145142.730572.9339963271939177.444467.554181.555014.265743.480413.293701.2106122.5120267.76540.3
Total OECD276558289839308104.8328671.2360084.5368306.2384443.3396778.3415985.4465466.3497125.8484361.8483569.2485483.4518207.6544739.6577502.5598171636586.2684979.5716501.1733584.1758451.6
plus affliates
INDICATOR: 3. GERD -- (million 2000 dollars -- constant prices and PPP)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Korea....................8597.39583.311039.513156.514686.316098.417237.915154.415952.418395.120668.621616.923261.9....
AT Totals0000000000000041648.745619.853050.154915.564347.878822.688852.6104288.7118856.4
US GERD Share
Share of OECD44.521076953144.743254013445.47825603246.355476232846.324016837545.998058137545.293817634244.690019590343.788162057143.231074763842.282841991242.271505539241.826759246341.511854730641.727306545642.120358101142.596494312343.276343037643.679818682143.865164168143.078828368542.421352956142.0629539542
Share of Both44.521076953144.743254013445.105431658346.355476232845.974764256745.998058137544.999405634144.690019590343.528234404440.116438075138.44324716239.603329577238.886244202538.71417642738.572649262638.682041841638.600075324339.296187879439.16878813938.715611197137.445148374536.284551423635.3930296937
EU15 GERD Share
Share of OECD35.054202011933.447948688833.631303198232.759487293132.459467044932.73762429233.076227848933.126534389633.204100154732.93999136932.099983384331.886147942431.995234591431.802301594430.492524270929.683426279429.12730427429.056139958129.30528334629.128831693129.34022629129.852249125729.6317722838
Share of Both35.054202011933.447948688833.355598484732.759487293132.214744039232.73762429232.861230771933.126534389633.006999764930.566788616129.185067441729.873495391329.74589779529.658995549628.187236157927.260346044226.394569720526.383826698426.278782040825.709251152825.503226722225.533732260624.933060989
AT GERD Share
Share of OECD000000000000008.69437876789.118997441610.137200685610.110432199311.272420358113.037875250414.266636844416.620730256618.6241614682
Share of Both000000000000008.03706854168.37460687649.18612473549.180568767110.108261850511.50729328412.400902106114.216325026715.6709274527
For Graphing38.572649262638.682041841638.600075324339.296187879439.16878813938.715611197137.445148374536.284551423635.3930296937US
Recent Years28.187236157927.260346044226.394569720526.383826698426.278782040825.709251152825.503226722225.533732260624.933060989EU
8.03706854168.37460687649.18612473549.180568767110.108261850511.50729328412.400902106114.216325026715.6709274527AT
Share of Both
GERD
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
US Share of OECD
US Share of OECD and Affliates
Percent
US Share of OECD GERD
Papers
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
EU15 Share of OECD
EU15 Share of OECD Plus Affiliates
Percent
EU15 Share of GERD
GERDpapers1981
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
US
EU
AT
Percent
Share of GERD for OECD and Affiliates
GERD Share of OECD + AffiliatesPaper Share (Worldwide)
USEUATUSEUAT*ChinaSingaporeS. KoreaTaiwan
199538.628.28.036.9836.964.082.010.280.80.99
199638.727.38.435.8137.814.552.230.280.941.1
199738.626.49.235.2838.325.232.620.321.151.14
199839.326.49.234.739.335.752.780.361.381.23
199939.226.310.134.1539.276.443.190.431.561.26
200038.725.711.533.9339.357.013.510.481.731.29
200137.425.512.433.9839.377.9940.532.011.45
200236.325.514.233.5438.858.824.590.592.151.49
200335.424.915.733.4338.529.595.090.62.341.56
* Neglects double counting
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
00000
US GERD
EU GERD
AT GERD
US Papers
EU Papers
Percent
Paper Share and GERD Share
GERD SharePaper ShareTotal GERDGERD SharePaper ShareTotal GERD
USEU15USEU15USEU15USUSBillionsDollars
198144.535.139.7430.5812312796945198144.539.7123.1123127
198244.733.439.5730.8812968396945198244.739.6129.7129683
198345.133.439.0330.94138972102770198345.139.0139.0138972
198446.432.839.330.78152357107671198446.439.3152.4152357
198546.032.239.0531.22165548116000198546.039.1165.5165548
198646.032.738.8831.49169414120575198646.038.9169.4169414
198745.032.938.7831.74172997126333198745.038.8173.0172997
198844.733.138.6131.39177320131439198844.738.6177.3177320
198943.533.038.531.82181071137304198943.538.5181.1181071
199040.130.638.5532.09186729142278199040.138.6186.7186729
199138.429.238.8332.41191111145087199138.438.8191.1191111
199239.629.937.8633.13191823144696199239.637.9191.8191823
199338.929.738.1633.71188042143842199338.938.2188.0188042
199438.729.737.0734.78187951143990199438.737.1188.0187951
199538.628.237.0135.04199886146068199538.637.0199.9199886
199638.727.335.8235.85210716148498199638.735.8210.7210716
199738.626.435.2836.38222916152429199738.635.3222.9222916
199839.326.434.7337.36235058157820199839.334.7235.1235058
199939.226.334.1837.23249343167287199939.234.2249.3249343
200038.725.733.9437.22265194176103200038.733.9265.2265194
200137.425.533.9837.19268295182731200137.434.0268.3268295
200236.325.533.5536.59266178187311200236.333.6266.2266178
200335.424.933.4336.22268439189105200335.433.4268.4268439
Includes bothfrom 2003 CD
OECD and Affiliates
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
0000
US GERD
EU15GERD
US Paper
EU Paper
Percent
GERD and Paper Shares
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
GERD Share
Paper Share
GERD
Shares in Percent, GERD in $Billions
US Paper Share Compared to GERD and GERD Share
-
mi is share of papers published (fractional basis) wi is the share of GERD for the OECD Group k i is a "constant" of proportionality; it differs by country. k i is also the efficiency of country i in producing papers per $1 million in GERD, normalized by the OECD average efficiency. For data in a single year the equation is an identity, but it is most useful over a range of years when k i is approximately constantA Simple Model for Country imi = k iwi
-
Since 1998, ki Has Been Fairly ConstantEU is about 40% more efficient; AT is about 40% less efficient. Source for papers: NSF S&EI 2006 (fractional counts)
Chart1
0.95840777860.98746577331988
0.97225910811.00410068941989
1.04980380281.08025695611990
1.09067725091.14397476270.4880302564
1.01904581541.14222818440.4728294793
0.99201497281.10424832170.4538367642
0.95939434551.13619481160.441859158
0.95436381491.20435179140.4320862524
0.92599844271.26533956170.4605052261
0.90728695831.3152416610.4909188593
0.85817095561.33800348720.5422982301
0.8465717521.33691340940.5564013634
0.84299255331.36005509560.5385543352
0.87023364831.35862220260.5657031305
0.89685235171.33376447060.53832037
0.89465225641.36000722680.5434528866
US
EU
AT
Ki= Paper Share/GERD Share
Results
Paper ShareGERDGERD Share for OECD and AffiliatesKi
USEU15ATUSEUATUSEUATTotal GERD OECDTotal GERD +AffiliatesUSEUAT
198842.9200632.505191.74278177296.613032344.782668547632.9177869916395904.5395904.50.95840777860.9874657733
198942.4189332.928681.96819181027.5136070.543.6292424832.7942044103412528.6414922.40.97225910811.0041006894
199042.2520632.871902.23790186740.5141187.640.247575593330.4297064849431166.5463979.51.04980380281.0802569561
199142.0666133.121862.30655191087.8143446.523415.738.569257632628.95331368624.7262366616450615.8495440.71.09067725091.14397476270.4880302564
199240.4679633.827082.60617191933.4143134.626639.839.711618437629.61499468265.5118576176452628.54833181.01904581541.14222818440.4728294793
199338.6396132.599482.79858187975.5142472.429759.438.950628616629.52187673676.1664809364448489.7482599.40.99201497281.10424832170.4538367642
199437.1915833.457143.01973187933.3142755.333131.438.765687368829.44665650016.8341347408451849484792.90.95939434551.13619481160.441859158
199536.8409933.745893.46771199884.114508741555.938.60266547628.01996219778.0254933046478432.6517798.70.95436381491.20435179140.4320862524
199635.8360234.304183.84912210764.6147648.245521.438.69986992627.11065394678.3584826809499897.6544613.20.92599844271.26533956170.4605052261
199735.0223634.584254.50007222935.7151862.952940.538.601191475926.29497599989.1666178962523142.8577535.80.90728695831.3152416610.4909188593
199833.8179935.114894.95247236448.8157469.854795.839.407049639526.24424494999.1323821928544653.3600016.50.85817095561.33800348720.5422982301
199933.2463635.001765.59426250826.8167216.964216.739.271758934726.181021272910.054359271572534.6638695.10.8465717521.33691340940.5564013634
200032.8121134.803206.15989267767.5176039.578684.838.923366462925.589550525911.4378231319606923.1687935.10.84299255331.36005509560.5385543352
200132.7936034.476306.97095271285.5182681.888710.837.683676067525.375929692612.3226234019625660.4719901.90.87023364831.35862220260.5657031305
200232.4733733.962267.65129265122.4186447.910407236.208153480125.463462081114.2132650767625645.9732217.40.89685235171.33376447060.53832037
200332.2186733.556178.43839275049.5188446.8118591.936.012504433724.673526839715.5273553471642773.6763761.10.89465225641.36000722680.5434528866
USEUAT
19880.95840777860.9874657733
19890.97225910811.0041006894
19901.04980380281.0802569561
19911.09067725091.14397476270.4880302564
19921.01904581541.14222818440.4728294793
19930.99201497281.10424832170.4538367642
19940.95939434551.13619481160.441859158
19950.95436381491.20435179140.4320862524
19960.92599844271.26533956170.4605052261
19970.90728695831.3152416610.4909188593
19980.85817095561.33800348720.5422982301
19990.8465717521.33691340940.5564013634
20000.84299255331.36005509560.5385543352
20010.87023364831.35862220260.5657031305
20020.89685235171.33376447060.53832037
20030.89465225641.36000722680.5434528866
Paper Share from SEI 1998-2003 (table in Ki (version 2))
Results
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
000
US
EU
AT
Ki= Paper Shares/GERD Share
Papers by country
Ki2003 SeriesGERD
USA PapersEUATChinaSingaporeS KoreaTaiwanUSAEUATChinaSingaporeS KoreaTaiwan
1198117283613300625851650187230518123164.196330.10
2198217645213769037642642217301604129523.6..0
3198317746914068542032918272373640138776.2101947.60
4198417893714015847333241336421735152205.5106767.20
5198519046015227356633701444558960165392.3115040.90
61986196657159279687845434946591182169288119642.30
71987195707160195818652895608771460173081.2125333.70
819882024661645729804636457310211846177296.61303230
9198921003617360911434723770413412152181027.5136070.50
10199021619417999013388832279615822688186740.5141187.60
11199122230618553414100823981318683180191087.8143446.523415.714841.58574.2
121992230936202089173499617111623984218191933.4143134.626639.817081.69558.2
1319932301552033181918010242126129634714187975.5142472.429759.41867511084.4
1419942366252220212236211124152439455769187933.3142755.333131.419233.5709.213188.7
1519952472802341102732513462189053616612199884.114508741555.919348.480814686.36713.2
1619962428282430423091815143188564107480210764.6147648.245521.421190.21049.416098.47183.4
1719972409892485203576717923218578437816222935.7151862.952940.526457.81227.317237.98017.5
1819982461602648164081619755254698218694236448.8157469.854795.8293421487.615154.48811.8
19199924721326926246399230023113112409044250826.8167216.964216.736955.51662.715952.49646.1
20200024475426841850513252843481124469302267767.5176039.578684.8483001810.418395.110179.3
212001251380275149590772961339011484710716271285.5182681.888710.855560.51978.920668.610502.8
222002246885269215648703378143491579610944265122.4186447.910407268767.62087.521616.911600
232003267162289471766404070948171872212392275049.5188446.8118591.980615.62094.723161.412720.2
242004286436.499244.996844.12400.8
GERD
INDICATOR: 3. GERD -- (million 2000 dollars -- constant prices and PPP)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Australia2590.8....3155.8..3908.63948.54209..4710..5674.6..6410.7..7274.7..7269.1..7930.9..9242.3......
Austria1574.21672.81737.41814.71864.11968.82011.32143.82257.22438.12661.42689.22735.82950.73065.63242.83511.33809.34188.64407.84723.34974.15208.45490.35802
Belgium....2791.22882.83027.93089.23185.43241.33471.5..3590.6..3790.83890.24032.14292.34595.44766.35075.45387.95730.35364.85228.5....
Canada6281.46812.96872.27485.48077.78479.88543.58818.49456.99875.910075.510471.911094.212003.512093.711958.212522.813828.51489916643.618223.617756.417900.118252.1..
Czech Republic....................24552082.81462.513591327.91420.91571.51658.81669.11844.21880.51908.42040.62159..
Denmark1036.81105.31174.81253.21332.31468.31574.21686.51746.51841.31945.72021.72116..2431.625272729.22963.93236.1..37003934.94106.9....
Finland980.7..1183.51343.51472.41602.31753.61866.42000.220742102.62116.921212330.624062784.83160.23520.84083.44518.14571.24733.64921.1....
France19277.820669.221358.622645.223644.224106.725092.526153.227820.329808.430238.83080331044.130915.331216.631310.430944.531314.132710.433829.935313.336282.135771.436296..
Germany2986730560.931005.631877.534957.536040.537914.239205.14070241215.944252.143096.341476.640803.841657.942175.743780.445356.24878151588.852369.252973.753579.253716.9..
Greece223........360.6..403.6523.8..525.8..675.8..729.6..806..1148.2..1202..1245.9....
Hungary..................1659.91061.21012.5934.5876739.8665.1772.2761.9800.5981.81206.713511296.51250.7..
Iceland31..33.136.938.940.246.2..6260.97280.181.187.497.7..128.8149.4179.4219.3250.7250.9247.4....
Ireland264.5268.9259294.1328.6354.9369.8374.3397.8446.7513.5589.4685.1784866.7969.11047.11108.71174.71233.412761364.51503.71604.4..
Italy8734.89035.89628.41049312015.612422.413429.114282.214950.915868.415320.114903.414064.913418.613125.413368.11423914704.714578.815425.116368.517085.2......
Japan46431.449610.753305.256784.962508.3635756783372732.279037.385429.487390.386850.18514884367.789934.689048.69272595240.995625.498850.4101710.8103079.5105397.9....
Korea....................8574.29558.211084.413188.714686.316098.417237.915154.415952.418395.120668.621616.923161.4....
Luxembourg......................................368.3....410....
Mexico........................154621532130.72243.42664.23064.73618.93349.23539.5........
Netherlands4659.248475017.85046.95523.460136377.56395.56391.86761.16577.46467.86610.36927.57198.57515.37905.87842.48503.48248.783007994.58112.2....
New Zealand................521.7594.2579.8600.2644.4..670..806.1..779.2..940.6..1028.1....
Norway1071.61136.71208.31364.81521..1646.8..1678.9..1727.8..1881.2..2016.8..2214.1..2347.5..2623.72687.62813.9....
Poland..................2502.91956.32062.32138.32070.72005.22188.52338.62498.22692.22635.62566.72358.32366.2....
Portugal..302.5331.2336.6381.2403.4459496.2615690.3797.9869.4847.5827837.1915.6981.911411296.11424.71531.31453.61401.5....
Slovak Republic..................651.7899.5755.6594.2413.8452.4476.5585.6442.3374.8378.8386.5363.9385.2365.6..
Spain1930.622412246.3237526923089.63400.64006.34420.65168.85441.45743.25671.85369.455145780.45922.56752.16961.97706.580558910.19777.9....
Sweden3499.3..4012.7..4810.2..5265.3..5442..5284.2..5961..6818.3..7485.4..8358.1..10345.8..9943.7....
Switzerland3466.4..3486.2....4801.2....5216.5....5072.9......5320.8......5627.1..........
Turkey..................10501725.61695.51655.71278.51440.418312143.62241.22706.32946.930803049......
United Kingdom21468.7..20935.8..22663.123759.624139.224703.125360.925539.524238.823758.724673.32521025186.624889.124754.625348.52714328015.728819.729670.130203.1....
United States123164.1129523.6138776.2152205.5165392.3169288173081.2177296.6181027.5186740.5191087.8191933.4187975.5187933.3199884.1210764.6222935.7236448.8250826.8267767.5271285.5265122.4275049.5286436.4..
Japan (adj.)42709.345706.249151.252529.958180.159216.963181.467970.974086.880198.682011.581178.37910978353.983448.2....................
Total OECD276147.1289155.6304752.5327821.2356482.2367479.6381276.3395904.5412528.6431166.5450615.8452628.5448489.7451849478432.6499897.6523142.8544653.3572534.6606923.1625660.4625645.9642773.6....
EU25............................150299.2153052.8157818.5163573.1173524.5182728.5189679.8193452195625.6....
EU1596330.1..101947.6106767.2115040.9119642.3125333.7130323136070.5141187.6143446.5143134.6142472.4142755.3145087147648.2151862.9157469.8167216.9176039.5182681.8186447.9188446.8....
European Commission..................................................
Argentina..............................17391889.51923.32048.219671819.31484.61704.11982.9..
China....................14841.517081.61867519233.519348.421190.226457.82934236955.54830055560.568767.680615.696844.1..
Israel....................2358.42596.22813.13004.533043680.84112.14502.75307.16982.77415.67391.77077.57318.7..
Romania....................1036.91021.61117.5984.11089.2998.2770620.6503.3470.9531.5537.7595.3....
Russian Federation..................32813236709990.19019.48563.57681.88503.29203.68261.49588.610828.612757.714169.91563315287.2..
Singapore..........................709.28081049.41227.31487.61662.71810.41978.92087.52094.72400.8..
Slovenia........................388449.1421.5371.4383.2413.8449473.1525.2532.5547.1....
South Africa....2448.6..2631.8..2422.6..2393.8..2918.1..2096.7......2332......3150........
Chinese Taipei............................6713.27183.48017.58811.89646.110179.310502.81160012720.2....
Sheet1
-
Input Variable wi for mi = k iwiU.S. GERD share declined because of aggressive investments by the Asian Tigers. ROW is fairly flat. Since these add to 100%, U.S. and EU both lost GERD share to AT. Can you forecast what is going to happen next?
Chart1
38.572649262628.18723615798.037068541625.2030460379
38.682041841627.26034604428.374606876425.6830052377
38.600075324326.39456972059.186124735425.8192302198
39.296187879426.38382669849.180568767125.1394166551
39.16878813926.278782040810.108261850524.4441679697
38.715611197125.709251152811.50729328424.0678443661
37.445148374525.503226722212.400902106124.6507227972
36.284551423625.533732260614.216325026723.9653912892
35.393029693724.93306098915.670927452724.0029818646
US
EU15
AT
ROW
Percent
GERD Share
GERDcheck
INDICATOR: 3. GERD -- (million 2000 dollars -- constant prices and PPP)
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
Australia2590.7....3155.7..3908.53948.44208.9..4709.9..5674.5..6410.5..7274.5..7268.9..7930.7..8815.5......
Austria1559.21660.91725.31806.71854.11960.92005.12143.82257.224382661.42689.22735.82950.73065.63242.73511.33809.34188.54407.84724.24971.25198.65483.45814.4
Belgium....2791.22882.83027.83089.23185.43241.23471.5..3590.6..3790.73890.24032.14292.24595.34766.25075.45476.45880.76088.764076741.9..
Canada6281.46812.96872.27485.48077.78479.88543.58818.49456.99875.910075.510471.911094.212003.512093.711958.212522.813828.51489916643.618223.51776217926.918211.9..
Czech Republic....................24552082.71462.51358.91327.91420.91571.41658.81669.11844.21880.51908.42044.6....
Denmark1071.71142.41214.31295.41377.11517.71627.11743.31805.21903.22009.22063.12143.9..24472531.12728.22968.13235.4..3713.93948......
Finland981.2..1184.11344.21473.21603.11754.51867.42001.22075.12103.721182122.12331.72407.22783.83162.73528.84088.745184581.64728.44910....
France19726.721192.821997.62335424389.124813.725848.627008.628782.830621.43086631429.33150531313.231417.531573.731083.431419.43258533829.735317.536258.935297.5....
Germany30081.430780.331228.332106.435208.536299.238186.439486.640994.241511.845278.244064.442434.741693.542501.842807.244271.14561448990.151588.552308.252872.353217.1....
Greece223........360.6..403.6523.8..525.8..675.8..729.6..806..1148.2..1202........
Hungary..................1659.91061.21012.5934.4875.9739.8665.1772.2761.9800.5981.81206.71351.11286.7....
Iceland30.9..3336.938.940.146.1..6260.871.9808187.397.6..128.7149.6179.5219.3249.1250.3256.5....
Ireland264.5268.9259294.1328.6354.9369.8374.3397.8446.7513.5589.4685.1784866.7969.11047.11108.71174.71233.412761364.5......
Italy8734.89035.79628.410492.912015.512422.31342914282.114950.815868.31532014903.314064.813418.513125.31336814238.914704.614578.71542516368.417085.1......
Japan46249.349416.253096.256562.362263.263325.76756772446.978727.385094.487047.686509.684814.184036.88951588618.192352.194779.595345.799003.7102102.9103382106921.1....
Korea....................8597.39583.311039.513156.514686.316098.417237.915154.415952.418395.120668.621616.923261.9....
Luxembourg......................................368.3..........
Mexico........................1547.82155.52133.222462667.33068.33619.23348.53538.5........
Netherlands4659.248475017.85046.95523.360136377.46395.56391.86761.16577.46467.86610.26927.57198.57515.27905.87842.38503.48248.783007994.5......
New Zealand................522.6595.2580.7601.2645.5..671.1..807.4..780.5..939.3..1035.6....
Norway1071.61136.71208.31364.81521..1646.8..1678.9..1727.8..1881.2..2016.7..2214.1..2347.5..2623.72687.62813.9....
Poland..................2502.91956.32062.32138.32070.72005.22188.52338.62498.12692.22635.62566.72358.32366.2....
Portugal..302.5331.2336.6381.2403.4459496.2615690.3797.9869.4847.5827837.1915.6981.911411296.11424.71531.31699.2......
Slovak Republic..................651.7899.5755.6594.2413.8452.4476.4585.6442.3374.8378.8386.5363.9385.2....
Spain1930.622412246.3237526923089.63400.64006.34420.55168.85441.35743.25671.85369.455145780.35922.567526961.97706.48053.58902.89772.7....
Sweden3499.3..4012.7..4810.2..5265.3..5442..5284.2..5960.9..6818.2..7485.3..8358.1..10294.5..9943.6....
Switzerland3466.4..3486.2....4801.2....5216.5....5072.8......5320.7......5627..........
Turkey..................10501725.61695.51655.61278.51440.418312143.62241.22706.22946.930803048.9......
United Kingdom21400.2..20869.2..22591.323684.324062.724624.825280.525458.62416223683.524595.225130.125106.824841.224690.225324.227125.128015.528799.229698.230233.9....
United States123126.6129683.4138972152357.1165548169413.7172997.2177320.3181071.1186728.5191111.3191823.4188041.9187950.9199886.4210716.4222916.4235058.4249343.1265194268294.9266177.7268439....
Japan (adj.)42296.645264.548676.252022.357617.958644.762570.867314.173370.979423.68121980393.878344.577596.782580....................
Total OECD276558289839305579328671.2357369.7368306.2381944.4396778.3413516.1431931.2451983.1453788.9449573.2452764.4479030.2500272.1523321543156.8570842.8604566.3622799.9627461.6638183.9....
EU25............................151280.4153902.4158384.8163923.6173594.7182792.6189729.3194297.2196270.3....
EU1596945.2..102770.2107671116000.3120574.7126332.8131438.9137304.3142278.1145086.5144695.8143842143989.5146068.4148497.9152429.3157820.4167287.1176103.1182730.9187311.4189105.2....
European Commission..................................................
Argentina..............................1704.21851.71884.92007.31927.61782.91454.91670.1....
China....................14841.517081.61867519233.519348.421190.226457.82934236955.74830055560.668827.380606.6....
Israel....................2063.42259.72434.92594.52853.531823552.83890.64588.76047.26389.86443.16375.66540.3..
Romania....................1036.91021.61117.5984.11089.2998.2770620.6503.3470.9531.5538.5599.3....
Russian Federation..................33535.124190.9102109217.987527850.88690.39406.18443.29799.711066.913038.514481.716028.2....
Singapore..........................705.88041044.21221.31480.31654.51801.51969.22077.32084.4....
Slovenia........................388449.1421.5371.4383.2413.8449473.1525.2532.5......
South Africa....2525.8..2714.8..2498.9..2469.3..3010..2162.7......2405.5......3249.3........
Chinese Taipei............................681072878133.18938.89785.21032610654.211767.212903.5....
Affiliate Total002525.802714.802498.902469.333535.145142.730572.9339963271939177.444467.554181.555014.265743.480413.293701.2106122.5120267.7
From Official DataSet
US123126.6129683.4138972152357.1165548169413.7172997.2177320.3181071.1186728.5191111.3191823.4188041.9187950.9199886.4210716.4222916.4235058.4249343.1265194268294.9266177.7268439US199884210765222936236449250827267768271286265122275050US
EU1596945.2..102770.2107671116000.3120574.7126332.8131438.9137304.3142278.1145086.5144695.8143842143989.5146068.4148497.9152429.3157820.4167287.1176103.1182730.9187311.4189105.2EU15145087147648151863157470167217176040182682186448188447....EU15 them
EA2000000000014841.517081.61867519233.526158.428477.234590.938280.846740.95862666214.880594.593510.1EA2260622837434475381544660258479660638036893336EA2
ROG56486.2160155.666362.668643.178536.278317.885113.388019.197609.9999999999136459.7146086.5130761133010.3134309.5146094.4157048.1167565.9167011.4173215.1185056.4199260.5199500.5207397.3ROG150719160100168262170481176791188594199871203430210079ROG
OECDgroup276558289839308104.8328671.2360084.5368306.2384443.3396778.3415985.4465466.3497125.8484361.8483569.2485483.4518207.6544739.6577502.5598171636586.2684979.5716501.1733584.1758451.6OECDgroup521752546886577536602553641436690881719902735367766911OECDgroup Total
8/19/06
AT Recalc0000000000000041648.745619.853050.154915.564347.878822.688852.6104288.7118856.4
ROW (AT)00000000000000130604.1139905.5149106.7150376.7155608.2164859.8176622.7175806.3182051
1981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005Not much different, I think I am converging on a set to use
199519961997199819992000200120022003
I made no interpolations, even S. Africa. OECD probably made some in their OECD totalGERD shares based on OECDgroupShares based on Official DataSetdifferences in percentage points
GERD Shares Using AT group 8.19.6US38.638.738.639.339.238.737.436.335.438.338.538.639.239.138.837.736.135.9US-0.3-0.10.0-0.1-0.10.00.2-0.20.5
199519961997199819992000200120022003EU1528.227.326.426.426.325.725.525.524.927.827.026.326.126.125.525.425.424.6EU15 them-0.4-0.3-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.2-0.1-0.2-0.4
US38.638.738.639.339.238.737.436.335.4EA25.05.26.06.47.38.69.211.012.35.05.26.06.37.38.59.210.912.2EA2-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
EU1528.227.326.426.426.325.725.525.524.9ROG28.228.829.027.927.227.027.827.227.328.929.329.128.327.627.327.827.727.4ROG0.70.40.10.40.40.3-0.00.50.0
AT8.08.49.29.210.111.512.414.215.7OECDgroup100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100OECDgroup Total0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
ROG (AT)25.225.725.825.124.424.124.724.024.0can be as much as 0.5% points different, which might be significant in accuracy checks
OECD Group100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
GERDcheck
US
EU15
EA2
ROG
Percent
GERD Share of OECDgroup Check
B&WforPaper
US
EU15
AT
ROW
Percent
GERD Share
RelativeEfficiency
Fig. 5. Relative efficiencies for US (diamonds), EU15 (squares), EA2 (triangles), and rest of OECD Group (none). The degree of flatness of the curves is a measure of how accurate the model is for a interval of time.
Fig. 6. Accuracy of model using constant 1998 values for relative efficiency Ki, and actual values of investment share.
Model predictions of paper share of OECD Group in percent (diamonds), and actual paper shares (squares) are shown.
Fig. 6a. U.S.
Fig. 6b. EU15
Fig. 6c. EA2 China and Taiwan
Fig. 6d. Rest of OECD Group.
RelativeEfficiency
0.96165030321.21354691710.51283161770.9295312816
0.92986349141.27062099490.53964367090.9243445025
0.90728695831.3152416610.54674847160.9311877284
0.86179877361.34365974140.5470601590.9756151698
0.85020486761.3426508570.5309723381.0120654419
0.84660195571.36587838080.49685248981.0322898296
0.87023364831.35862220260.5169906871.008000995
0.90071061141.33950232670.48121405761.0231919473
0.89834209431.36561634040.48195523041.0352907705
US
EU15
EA2
ROG
PaperShareCheck
33.817985446833.8179854468
33.699729188233.2463617638
33.401097541132.8121080777
32.475745818132.7936029047
31.070477038132.4733675993
30.908057239932.2186683506
US Model
US Actual
35.114891260935.1148912609
35.028059163535.0017584111
34.2370576134.8031985873
34.096615127534.4763014915
34.06766972433.9622610216
33.016653240133.5561748139
EU15 Model
EU15 Actual
3.4639980043.463998004
3.97450014173.8576189439
4.63056788014.2055871602
5.02021169824.7442729149
5.97876816835.2591424226
6.6579160985.8655660341
EA2 Model
EA2 Actuals
27.603125288427.6031252884
26.889628813127.8942608812
26.632020065528.1791061748
27.086672821727.9858226889
26.989081401728.3052289565
26.72490452428.3595908014
ROG Model
ROG Actual
199519961997199819992000200120022003199519961997199819992000200120022003
GERD shares based on OECDgroupGERD shares official database
US38.638.738.639.339.238.737.436.335.4US38.338.538.639.239.138.837.736.135.9
EU1528.227.326.426.426.325.725.525.524.9EU15 them27.827.026.326.126.125.525.425.424.6
EA25.05.26.06.47.38.69.211.012.3EA25.05.26.06.37.38.59.210.912.2
ROG28.228.829.027.927.227.027.827.227.3ROG28.929.329.128.327.627.327.827.727.4
OECDgroup100100100100100100100100100OECDgroup Total100100100100100100100100100
Paper shares based on OECDgroupForecasts based on 1995 value of Ki
Forecasts based on 1998 value of Ki199519961997199819992000200120022003
US36.840987089435.836019285635.022357601133.817985446833.246361763832.812108077732.793602904732.473367599332.2186683506US33.817985446833.708346247733.318345790832.224995632331.226195165630.458958685US36.840987089437.061051576537.120847488537.73627551837.604317605837.27108527536.238518517834.670429550934.4891911309
EU1533.745891667134.304182982234.584247908735.114891260935.001758411134.803198587334.476301491533.962261021633.5561748139EU1535.114891260934.975084713134.217081886933.942878847333.983479427133.1840310899EU1533.745891667132.763298944531.910187060231.714552965331.63612922430.921724031130.794881247530.768738762229.8194970944
EA22.56160229522.7997833483.26374877223.4639980043.85761894394.20558716024.74427291495.25914242265.8655660341EA23.4639980043.97431085464.63270527035.0021900985.94671982686.673484124EA22.56160229522.66067685243.06128622163.24726206263.72582302684.34084182154.70610634735.60468771396.2413426151
ROG26.851518948327.060014384327.12964571827.603125288427.894260881228.179106174827.985822688928.305228956528.3595908014ROG27.603125288426.900851272326.709393680327.494248173826.886332981927.0341500882ROG26.851518948327.211856383727.081386046226.299271700225.61947774725.374037334825.807214239325.714232620625.4625343288
OECDgroup100100100100100100100100100OECDgroup100OECDgroup100100100100100100100100100
Relative Efficiency KiRelative Efficiency Ki based on official GERD database19981999200020012002200319992000200120022003
Forecasts based on 1998 value of Ki, using official GERD dataForecasts based on 1998 value of Ki, using official GERD data
US0.95510647550.92642522420.90731319320.86059201340.84879730380.84751621020.87577708540.89496400880.9103111158US0.96165030320.92986349140.90728695830.86179877360.85020486760.84660195570.87023364830.90071061140.8983420943US33.817985446833.699729188233.401097541132.475745818131.070477038130.9080572399US33.246361763832.951747652232.038844822430.652481330430.4922465898
EU151.19720470211.25839132511.31027890491.33092487541.33193990331.35372276621.35184076381.33009388031.3458505889EU151.21354691711.27062099491.3152416611.34365974141.3426508571.36587838081.35862220261.33950232671.3656163404EU1535.114891260935.028059163534.2370576134.096615127534.06766972433.0166532401EU1535.001758411134.211350779634.07101374834.042090078232.9918627481
EA20.50746290960.53556981060.54488986270.5412800020.52538718440.4913760090.51337114390.47869560090.4757505279EA20.51283161770.53964367090.54674847160.5470601590.5309723380.49685248980.5169906870.48121405760.4819552304EA23.4639980043.97450014174.63056788015.02021169825.97876816836.657916098EA23.85761894394.49439319134.87257845245.80294591146.462121613
ROG0.95244315940.93860807050.9350015860.98863844371.02514743441.04303931441.00631448491.04081272531.0371097897ROG0.92953128160.92434450250.93118772840.97561516981.01206544191.03228982961.0080009951.02319194731.0352907705ROG27.603125288426.889628813126.632020065527.086672821726.989081401726.724904524ROG27.894260881227.627027530328.098666714427.997429149927.723382275
OECDgroup111111111OECDgroup111111111OECDgroup100100100100100100OECDgroup100100100100100
Compare to earlier graph, Fig 5 in Apaper
This one is difficult because the curves are basically flat. These truncated scales accentuate the error.
0.95510647551.19720470210.50746290960.9524431594
0.92642522421.25839132510.53556981060.9386080705
0.90731319321.31027890490.54488986270.935001586
0.86059201341.33092487540.5412800020.9886384437
0.84879730381.33193990330.52538718441.0251474344
0.84751621021.35372276620.4913760091.0430393144
0.87577708541.35184076380.51337114391.0063144849
0.89496400881.33009388030.47869560091.0408127253
0.91031111581.34585058890.47575052791.0371097897
US
EU15
EA2
ROG
Relative Efficiency Ki
33.817985446833.8179854468
33.708346247733.2463617638
33.318345790832.8121080777
32.224995632332.7936029047
31.226195165632.4733675993
30.45895868532.2186683506
US Model
US Actual
Percent Paper Share
Accuracy Corrected Chart
35.114891260935.1148912609
34.975084713135.0017584111
34.217081886934.8031985873
33.942878847334.4763014915
33.983479427133.9622610216
33.184031089933.5561748139
EU15 Model
EU15 Actual
Percent Paper Share
Accuracy of Corrected Model
3.4639980043.463998004
3.97431085463.8576189439
4.63270527034.2055871602
5.0021900984.7442729149
5.94671982685.2591424226
6.6734841245.8655660341
EA2 Model
Percent Paper Share
Accuracy of Corrected Model
27.603125288427.6031252884
26.900851272327.8942608812
26.709393680328.1791061748
27.494248173827.9858226889
26.886332981928.3052289565
27.034150088228.3595908014
ROG Model
ROG Actual
Percent Paper Shre
Accuracy of Corrected Model
0.96165030321.21354691710.51283161770.9295312816
0.92986349141.27062099490.53964367090.9243445025
0.90728695831.3152416610.54674847160.9311877284
0.86179877361.34365974140.5470601590.9756151698
0.85020486761.3426508570.5309723381.0120654419
0.84660195571.36587838080.49685248981.0322898296
0.87023364831.35862220260.5169906871.008000995
0.90071061141.33950232670.48121405761.0231919473
0.89834209431.36561634040.48195523041.0352907705
US
EU15
EA2
ROG
33.817985446833.8179854468
33.699729188233.2463617638
33.401097541132.8121080777
32.475745818132.7936029047
31.070477038132.4733675993
30.908057239932.2186683506
US Model
US Actual
Percent Paper Share
Accuracy based on Official DB
35.114891260935.1148912609
35.028059163535.0017584111
34.2370576134.8031985873
34.096615127534.4763014915
34.06766972433.9622610216
33.016653240133.5561748139
EU15 Model
EU15 Actual
Paper Share Percent
Accuracy Based on Official DB
3.4639980043.463998004
3.97450014173.8576189439
4.63056788014.2055871602
5.02021169824.7442729149
5.97876816835.2591424226
6.6579160985.8655660341
EA2 Model
EA2 Actuals
Paper Share Percent
Accuracy Based on Official DB
27.603125288427.6031252884
26.889628813127.8942608812
26.632020065528.1791061748
27.086672821727.9858226889
26.989081401728.3052289565
26.72490452428.3595908014
ROG Model
ROG Actual
Paper Share Percent
Accuracy Based on Official DB
33.246361763833.2463617638
32.951747652232.8121080777
32.038844822432.7936029047
30.652481330432.4733675993
30.492246589832.2186683506
Official 1999 Ki
35.001758411135.0017584111
34.211350779634.8031985873
34.07101374834.4763014915
34.042090078233.9622610216
32.991862748133.5561748139
Official 1999 Ki
3.85761894393.8576189439
4.49439319134.2055871602
4.87257845244.7442729149
5.80294591145.2591424226
6.4621216135.8655660341
EA2 Model
Official 1999 Ki
27.894260881227.8942608812
27.627027530328.1791061748
28.098666714427.9858226889
27.997429149928.3052289565
27.72338227528.3595908014
ROG Model
Official 1999 Ki
27.603125288427.60312528840
26.889628813127.89426088121999
26.632020065528.17910617482000
27.086672821727.98582268892001
26.989081401728.30522895652002
26.72490452428.35959080142003
ROG Model
ROG Actual
dummy
ROG Accuracy with Non-Truncated Graph
33.817985446833.81798544680
33.699729188233.2463617638
33.401097541132.8121080777
32.475745818132.7936029047
31.070477038132.4733675993
30.908057239932.2186683506
US Model
US Actual
Percent Paper Share
Accuracy based on Official DB
35.114891260935.11489126090
35.028059163535.0017584111
34.2370576134.8031985873
34.096615127534.4763014915
34.06766972433.9622610216
33.016653240133.5561748139
EU15 Model
EU15 Actual
dummy
Paper Share Percent
Accuracy Based on Official DB
36.840987089436.84098708940
37.061051576535.8360192856
37.120847488535.0223576011
37.73627551833.8179854468
37.604317605833.2463617638
37.27108527532.8121080777
36.238518517832.7936029047
34.670429550932.4733675993
34.489191130932.2186683506
US Model
US Actual
Accuracy 1995 Ki
33.745891667133.74589166710
32.763298944534.3041829822
31.910187060234.5842479087
31.714552965335.1148912609
31.63612922435.0017584111
30.921724031134.8031985873
30.794881247534.4763014915
30.768738762233.9622610216
29.819497094433.5561748139
EU15 Model
EU15 Actual
Accuracy 1995 Ki
2.56160229522.5616022952
2.66067685242.799783348
3.06128622163.2637487722
3.24726206263.463998004
3.72582302683.8576189439
4.34084182154.2055871602
4.70610634734.7442729149
5.60468771395.2591424226
6.24134261515.8655660341
EA2 Model
EA2 Actual
Accuracy 1995 Ki
26.851518948326.85151894830
27.211856383727.0600143843
27.081386046227.129645718
26.299271700227.6031252884
25.61947774727.8942608812
25.374037334828.1791061748
25.807214239327.9858226889
25.714232620628.3052289565
25.462534328828.3595908014
ROG Model
ROG Actual
Accuracy 1995 Ki
Appendix table 5-41 Check of Fractional Count Only from 1991 On
S&E articles, by region and country/economy: 19882003
Region and country/economy1988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003
All countries466,419497,102508,795515,530547,617540,491567,204580,809593,568594,467617,762632,059632,781649,795641,388698,726
Major S&E article producers353,862377,817389,307397,004422,045421,573442,390455,429467,036468,143487,006497,069496,599512,166501,778546,626
United States177,662187,224191,559194,015198,864197,397199,769202,887201,798197,531197,890198,524196,221200,870195,792211,233
EU-15134,551145,337149,032152,761166,230166,540179,710185,842193,172195,060205,479209,006208,128211,177204,769220,002
Austria2,2412,6752,6902,7563,0473,0513,1773,4773,6183,8804,1724,2104,2594,5264,4054,906
Belgium3,5863,9054,1034,1644,4314,5124,9495,2605,5835,5095,8225,9245,7395,9845,9336,604
Denmark3,4453,7223,7163,7764,1414,0684,4584,4084,4774,5124,7824,9094,9294,9884,7405,291
Finland2,7892,9813,0713,2113,4383,6033,9744,1344,3544,5234,5644,8724,8785,0984,8735,202
France21,40922,68622,93723,51826,17226,22528,26629,30929,75530,06131,80932,09730,96031,31729,92831,971
Germany29,29231,82132,29532,92935,12034,10336,90138,10039,12340,74343,95343,55043,44043,62341,86344,305
Greece1,2391,5181,3971,5981,7361,7591,9742,0682,2652,4072,6662,7052,8923,3293,3733,770
Ireland7908269029159461,0031,1681,2101,2691,3181,5261,5261,5961,6651,6501,758
Italy11,22912,50913,06213,77815,46215,27917,00017,90419,34219,14720,32120,81921,03822,31322,31424,696
Luxembourg7111715232226312033333442463346
Netherlands8,5819,73610,17610,10611,06011,36011,96112,33012,43812,77912,75612,64212,46612,60212,51713,475
Portugal4295105876407127949149891,0901,2501,4041,7651,8132,1422,1732,625
Spain5,4326,1166,8377,2699,2679,75910,53411,34312,23413,04013,78614,86014,77615,57015,86816,826
Sweden7,5738,1268,1728,1398,2738,5478,9729,2849,6979,6779,96710,1299,81510,3149,82910,237
United Kingdom36,50938,19539,06939,95042,40442,45645,43645,99347,90446,18347,91648,96549,48547,66045,26948,288
Japan34,43536,56938,57039,59044,14343,33946,69247,60350,39250,17154,65856,13455,41357,42055,08560,067
East Asia-47,2148,68710,14610,63812,80714,29716,22019,09721,67525,38128,98033,40536,83742,69946,13255,324
China4,6195,4116,2856,1866,9567,5667,8219,26110,07012,53013,80716,19718,14220,97823,60929,186
Singapore4105175725997558541,0221,1841,1811,3381,6351,9842,3012,6032,6773,122
South Korea7711,0351,1701,3611,7592,1842,9313,8064,7285,6367,0758,3869,38611,03711,74513,746
Taiwan1,4141,7242,1192,4923,3373,6934,4464,8465,6965,8786,4636,8387,0088,0828,1009,270
Other regions/countries
Other Western Europe9,3279,90110,85110,93912,16212,37913,30713,82614,59715,45616,17016,97417,54817,97118,29320,939
Croatianananana17575508563614631589671704710657845
Cyprus1515178222424415466615860748592
Iceland696889104105122137158149147177136154174193203
Norway2,1922,2472,4262,4032,6552,6372,8052,9532,9503,0123,1003,1273,1953,2523,1183,339
Slovenianananana10404459443478595625707901876856969
Switzerland5,3165,5485,9016,0986,6516,8717,3727,3617,4897,9128,0968,2978,4548,1077,7448,542
Turkey5076687508461,0481,1721,3971,7132,2062,4402,8183,2403,4824,0985,0726,224
Yugoslavia1,2111,3301,6411,4471,621496514507568555605622513547460600
All others172626333579918791999911586131108124
Other Asia10,11611,07510,56610,93711,53911,32911,59211,35511,47811,15811,98512,77912,29413,45614,00515,779
Bangladesh9599116104151153136170155146138168160177160204
India8,8829,7449,2009,51710,1009,7639,9289,5919,7369,41910,06610,58910,04711,07611,53812,774
Indonesia59861048986103120133137146138172165207167178
Malaysia208241233260247293345373372339402493470494485520
Pakistan235263257315277349324339274258276300277282334368
Philippines127149157148150148141151153174167187177158178179
Sri Lanka1071011068482838582786875941047695141
Thailand2872722822983003173833383864155305586557278081,072
Vietnam52666065746761102113120107112144158144216
All others64555058725471767474861069610196125
Eastern Europe/former USSR41,59743,69742,83641,21843,21435,97638,19936,39035,07434,25934,68034,42135,84433,68633,90135,067
Armenianananana21165178182179186169156167152201175
Azerbaijannananana15197189157125879470896873107
Bulgaria1,0891,2191,2161,1691,2181,3801,024963968977931900887784789829
Belarusnananana307081,021728597576598616576528480532
Czech Republic2,7462,9953,0792,8813,1323,3082,1791,9932,2492,2312,3332,3742,4582,6222,7782,950
Estonianananana2177202240248255299320344339333368
Georgianananana12158136148126135131129141110132117
Hungary1,7141,8471,7221,8061,8241,7181,7741,8261,8391,9392,1442,3132,2922,4792,3082,503
Kazakhstannananana19250191173143125122109113116123128
Latvianananana37180159154168152164173159157171153
Lithuanianananana5149189179196209248284262272338322
Moldovanananana15156159140136116989596777678
Poland4,0304,2453,9993,9194,1133,8484,0414,5354,5974,4454,8915,1955,3425,6866,0236,770
Romania393513377395568507675648871835858909956997900988
Russianananana81719,65921,61219,97418,46418,34317,84117,14918,27115,84615,81815,782
Slovakianananana44na1,1511,1371,1751,0511,1449971,007955936943
Ukrainenananana1622,8942,9232,8562,6002,2872,3622,3512,3652,2562,1832,089
USSR31,62532,87932,44331,04731,127130nananananananananana
Uzbekistannananana50275290295347264213242273204192192
All othersnananana5116105634546393845394742
Near East/North Africa7,8968,4008,2418,1538,4238,8309,1419,6479,70610,06310,52210,75211,11111,80211,98713,465
Algeria667398106120123125151156151165179204225240285
Egypt1,1301,2781,2541,4291,2881,2791,3801,3591,3591,2421,3021,3621,3761,5481,5641,720
Iran8691941261501752332713123665236998259951,2771,806
Israel4,9165,1344,9684,8735,2345,5755,5595,9215,8156,2036,2406,0916,3146,4876,4156,941
Jordan161174176148135130144153167193217245242240237263
Kuwait304326368209104112186166240210251298243257234244
Lebanon54612947525462566896111129139202158223
Morocco11310897128170164182237256298370425471469461428
Oman1320273237424653636376889996116114
Saudi Arabia569577644613653713734781754682700637595580581573
Syria19283431494948475260426056615467
Tunisia9610710412113191135147159206230269278344361452
United Arab Emirates233033577710998122145154157137144159169193
All others346394314235222214208183159140138132124138120158
Central/South America5,6326,4046,8867,0527,9237,9908,5259,54710,46811,52212,90014,25014,74716,35517,12218,933
Argentina1,4231,5181,6271,4991,5261,5851,7471,9692,2122,4302,5462,7052,7922,9303,1613,086
Brazil1,7662,1172,3742,6403,1072,8853,0733,4713,8304,3625,2025,9506,1957,2057,6508,684
Chile6827458308198358777988999289749871,0621,1001,2031,2601,500
Colombia86111122106125122145167196230237254320324353337
Costa Rica55555455626166707278737682929484
Cuba679010894131113141166194177234242282299201264
Mexico8841,0461,0381,0821,3361,5021,6631,9012,1242,2712,6152,9252,9503,2093,3073,747
Peru686777707366646872717160779387129
Uruguay4250576481918498115133136159158155151194
Venezuela292328314329377395420430432484528523509535525563
All others268278286294268292324307292313272293281310333345
Sub-Saharan Africa4,5444,5044,3554,4094,3564,3214,2634,1613,9824,0283,9854,2073,9733,9904,1514,219
Botswana9201718202819344538385058597176
Cameroon3541465458758473608177717675108123
Ethiopia71587093888486998810980106909310199
Ghana37364047725267657788678595907383
Kenya291300255260295346280310275256270278237230239258
Nigeria886864815719666604470464433458418451428332353384
Senegal Republicnananana2na75776465737173625479
South Africa2,5232,4992,4062,5522,4192,3772,4592,3642,2822,2372,2682,3662,2372,32
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