The Race for World Leadership of Science and Technology: Status and Forecasts

R. D. Shelton and P. FolandWTECBaltimore, Maryland, USA

Word version in Proceedings of the 12th International Conference On Scientometrics and Informetrics, pp. 369-380. Rio de Janeiro, July 14-17, 2009. Both posted at itri2.org/Rpaper/

Outline

Purposes Input Indicators (Table 1 in paper) Output Indicators (Table 2) Current National Positions with

Extrapolation Forecasts Focus on Forecasting Scientific Paper

Shares Conclusions

Purposes

1. Provide a set of indicators to evaluate current national leadership of S&T (2005 data mostly).

2. Provide forecasts based on recent trends to predict which country will lead in the near future.

3. Provide detailed forecasts of numbers of scientific publications in SCI, with confirmation from other databases.

Model of a National Scientific Enterprise

Indicators measure inputs and outputs

Multiple linear regression can identify which inputs are most important

“The Black Box”

Resources InS&T Outputs

S&T Input Indicators (2005)Indicator U.S. EU27 PRC Units

1. Population 297 (1.0%) 492 (0.4%) 1308 (0.6%) Millions

2. Researchers 1388 (1.0%) 1300 (3.1%) 1119 (10.6%) Thousands

3. GDP 12376 (5.5%) 13031(4.4%) 5333 (12.9%) Billions, PPP, current dollars

4. GERD 324 (1.7%) 227 (2.2%) 71 (18.9%) Billions, PPP, current dollars, (percentage in constant dollars)

5. GERD Share 36 (-2.0%) 26 (-1.5%) 7.8 (14.7%) Percent of OECD Group

Average annual percentage rates of change in parentheses. Red emphasizes very rapid growth. Data from OECD (2008/1).

Number of researchers and GERD are key INPUTS, but can drive outputs, like publications. GERD is much more significant than researchers.

Population (thousands)

0200000400000600000800000

100000012000001400000

USA

EU27

PRC

ResearchersOECD

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Nu

mb

er

of

res

ea

rch

ers

M

illio

ns US

EU27

China

This pattern will be seen in several indicators: the US and EU curves are close together, with China below, but gaining quickly.

GDP, Constant Year 2000 $, PPP

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Tri

llio

ns

US

EU27

China

This format de-emphasizes China’s rapid gain compared to the other two. Its GDP has trebled over this interval.

GERD, Constant Year 2000$, PPP

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Billions

US

EU27

China

(R&D Investments)

GERD SHARE of OECD Group

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Perc

en

tag

e

US

EU27

China

China’s gain comes at the expense of the other two. This is a key driver for scientific publication share, since both are zero-sum.

“World” share of R&D investment

GERD Real Increases Over the Previous Year

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Perc

ent US

EU27

PRC

China’s spectacular increases in R&D investments make its rapid gains in output indicators more understandable.

GERD Share WithForecasts Based on 5-year Average

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

US

EU27

PRC

This is based on a linear extrapolation of GERD, then shares of all OECD countries are constrained to add to 100%.

S&T Output Indicators (2005)

Indicator US EU27 China Source

1. Quantity of Papers (SCI) 205,320 (1.5%) 234,868 (1.3%) 41,596 (17.0%) NSB, 2008

2. Relative Impacts 1.47 (0.6%) 1.09 (1.1%) 0.63 (2.3%) ISI, 2006

3. Triadic Patents 15,774 (1.2%) 14,571 (0.9%) 356(35.1%) OECD, 2008

4. S&E Ph.D. Production 26,275 (1.6%) 45,398 (2%) 14,858 (17.3%)NSB, 2008Moguerou, 2006

5. Nobel Prizes (1950-2008) 168 260 3Nobel, 2008, by

birth

6. High-Tech Exports,World Market Share in Percent 19 (-3%) 17 (0%) 15 (30%) EC, 2007

7. Trade Balance(Goods in Billion Euros, current) - 666 (5%) - 127 (9%) 82 (45%) Eurostat, 2009

Average annual percentage rates of change in parentheses. Red emphasizes rapid growth.

SCI Publications (Fractional Count)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Thousands

US

EU27

China

From NSF S&EI 2008. NSF thinks U.S. plateau has ended; I disagree.

S&E Doctoral Degrees

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

US

EU

China

EU = Germany and UK only; EU27 curve would be far above the US one.

Increase of S&E Doctoral Degrees Over the Previous Year

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Per

cent

age

US

China

Triadic Patent Share

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Perc

enta

ge

US

EU27

China

PRC Triadic Patent Share

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Perc

enta

ge

Growing fast from a very small base.

Hi-Tech Exports (Market Share)EC (2007)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Per

cen

tag

e %

US

EU27

China

EU-27 doesn’t include BG and RO

Trade Balance (Eurostat 2009)

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

US EU27 China

EUR

Billi

ons

2002

2007

Summary of National Positions Who’s ahead depends on indicators chosen In 2005 data the leader was:

US: GERD, researchers, impacts, patents, hi-tech exports

EU: papers in SCI, S&E PhDs, Nobels PRC: trade balance

But linear forecasts show the PRC will gain: Lead hi-tech exports and researchers by 2010 Pass EU in GERD by 2015 (US will still lead) Pass US in S&E PhDs by 2015 (EU will still lead) Lead in papers in SCI by 2017 (more later)

2005 snapshot shows US leading, as the gurus have stated, BUT…

Focus on Scientific Papers

While growing fast in the Science Citation Index (SCI), China is far behind, however the Shelton Model forecasts that it will soon pass the US and EU to lead the world

Some confirmation comes from other databases, where China is already a contender: Inspec Scopus Compendix

More Detailed Model of Publication System (Inside the Black Box)

$ Inputs

US

EU

AT

ROW

Papers

Published

National Research Systems -- Fairly Independent

Highly Interdependent Paper Selection

Journal

Editors

g1p1

G (total) P (total)

wi = gi/G

GERD share

mi = pi/P

Paper share

• mi is share of papers published (fractional basis)

• wi is the share of GERD for the OECD Group

• k i is a "constant" of proportionality; it differs by

country.

• k i is also the efficiency of country i in producing

papers per $1 million in GERD, normalized by the OECD average efficiency.

• For data in a single year the equation is an identity, but it is most useful over a range of years when k i is approximately constant

A Simple Model for Country i

mi = k iwi

Ki Relative Efficiency

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

US

EU27

PRC

Since 1998, ki Has Been Fairly Constant for THESE Countries

EU is 40% more efficient than average. US and PRC are not so different, at about 20% below average.

Paper Share in Science Citation IndexForecast Based on Shelton Model

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Perc

en

t o

f O

EC

Dg

rou

p

US

EU27

PRC

This is based on R&D investments ( the GERD share driver), not an linear forecast of publications.

The PRC is likely to soon lead the world in scientific publications.

Scientific PublicationsINSPEC

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

USA

EU27

PRC

China is already taking the lead in this physical science database.

Scientific PublicationsSCOPUS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

No

. of

pa

pe

rs

(Th

ou

sa

nd

s)

USA

EU27

China

China has already passed the EU in this database.

Scientific PublicationsCOMPENDEX

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

No

. o

f P

ap

ers

(Th

ou

san

ds)

USA

EU27

China

China is already taking the lead in this physical science database.

Conclusions 2005 indicators show the US and EU about

even, with China well below However, China is growing rapidly Linear forecasts predict that China will soon

pass the US and EU in key indicators Perhaps most significant to

scientometricians is the forecast that they will soon lead the world in the SCI

I predict that, if present trends continue, the PRC will lead the world in S&T by 2017.

Appendix: Extra Slides

More info at http://itri2.org/Rpaper/

Total articles in SCI from S&E I 2008 Appendix Table 5-34Region/country /economy1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

World 564,645 581,751 588,488 602,381 610,203 630,452 629,353 638,378 661,708 688,615 709,541

United States 193,337 193,153 189,752 190,395 188,004 192,743 190,592 190,495 196,427 202,075 205,320

European Union 195,897 203,947 208,900 214,755 217,186 222,688 220,406 221,719 224,834 230,464 234,868

%growth over previous yearWorld 3.0 1.2 2.4 1.3 3.3 -0.2 1.4 3.7 4.1 3.0

United States -0.1 -1.8 0.3 -1.3 2.5 -1.1 -0.1 3.1 2.9 1.6European Union 4.1 2.4 2.8 1.1 2.5 -1.0 0.6 1.4 2.5 1.9

Demonstration that the end of U.S. plateau in publications is an artifact of the increases in the total SCI database

Linear forecast from 2005 to 2010 using data in Tables 1 and 2y1 = 5*s*y0 + y0 unless noted

2005 Slope 2010 2015US EU27 PRC US EU27 PRC US EU27 PRC US EU27 PRC

Population 297 492 1308 1 0.4 0.6 312 502 1347 327 512 1386Researchers 1388 1300 1119 1 3.1 10.6 1457 1502 1712 1527 1703 2305GDP 12376 13031 5333 5.5 4.4 12.9 15779 15898 8773 19183 18765 12213GERD 324 227 71 1.7 2.2 18.9 352 252 138 379 277 205GERD share 36 26 7.8 -2 -1.5 14.7 32 Constrained to add to 100%

0 0 0 0Papers 205320 234868 41596 1.5 1.3 17 220719 250134 76953 236118 265401 112309 SCI, based linear extrapolation, compare to Shelton ModelImpacts 1.47 1.09 0.63 0.6 1.1 2.3 1.51 1.15 0.70 1.56 1.21 0.77Patents 15774 14571 356 1.2 0.9 35.1 16720 15227 981 17667 15882 1606PhD 26275 45398 14858 1.6 2 17.3 28377 49938 27710 30479 54478 40562Nobel 0 0 0 0 0 0 China will clearly be far behind for a very long timeHi-Tech Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 China will clearly lead if present trends continueTrade Balance -666 -127 82 5 9 45 -833 -184 267 -999 -241.3 451

Linear Extrapolation Details

Some indicators are zero sum--GERD share, for example. Results need to be constrained to add to 100%.