re- designing the city of the future

Re-Designing the City of the Future

LIFT 07

7 February 2007, Geneva

Cockayne & Nova

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 2

Today’s Agenda

0900 Introduction to the day

0915 Analyze existing ‘Cities of the Future’ [group]

1000 Design Foresight

1045 Break

1100 Develop the Future(s) [team]

1145 Present the Future(s)

1215Develop a Normative Path to the Future(s) [group]

1300 Go change the world!

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 3

ambiguity

time

Design Research Foresight

Critically explore

assumptions, build models &

develop questions

Develop strategies:-Scenarios- deep dives-Trend finding

Design for today’s future-Ethnography- brainstorms- prototypes

Working in the long-term future

Up to 4 years Up to 7 years

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 4

How to Think About the Future, generally

The future is a complex problem.

You can't predict the future, but you can invent it.

Use ‘data’ and analytical reasoning to discern what might exist and what we could build.

While predictions are foolish, there is value in the underlying discussions.

Focus on the questions generated, not ‘answers’.

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 5

What is a city?

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 6

A.D. 3000, Corbusier, Mumford, and Hall.

Did any of the authors did each guess correctly?

Why were some incorrect guesses so bad?

What seems to have changed the most over time?Social or technical? Was it a driver or a reaction? Global or local?

What changed the least?

What types of major changes occurred?

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 7

Foresight Thinking

XX

XXX

X

X

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 8

S-curves

idea

scientificdiscovery

scientificbreakthroug

h

lab bench

invention

technology

product

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 9

X-Y

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 10

White spots, hot spots

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 11

When are the changes?

XX

XXX

X

X

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 12

Foresight Thinking for Designing

?

?

??

??

?

??

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 13

People

Think about Shakespeare (or the Greeks, the Romans, and anything else that seems “timeless”).

Think about people today and at the future time.

If you assume people will change, what’s the single most important reason (driver)?

When thinking about a change, what are the early indicators (triggers, incipients)?

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 14

Analyzing and describing

Ideas are fine

Questions are more important

Assumptions are critical

Stories will tie it all together, even fractured ones

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 15

Prototyping

Models are endpoints. The underlying assumptions, questions, and changes are more important.

Models can be used incorrectly.

The best models generate questions around the areas of highest change.

Make the model interesting, but not comical.

?

?

??

??

?

??

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 16

Communicating

Stories (Short stories, Speculative fiction, Science fiction, Counterfactuals)

Scenarios

Personas

MoviesCorporate videos, commercials

Maps (Cross-impact, Trends, S-curves)

Objects (Wired’s ‘Artifacts from the Future’, Philips Design, Jason Tester @ IFTF)

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 17

Viewpoints / ‘genres’

Utopian / Realist / Dystopian

Malthusian / Growth / Accelerating

Technocracy / Democracy

Techno-determinist / Technophobic / Technophilic

Libertarian / Liberal / Communist / NWO / Fascist

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 18

Futures and forward-looking data sources

Research Orgs (NAS, OECD, EIU, RAND, SRI …)Futurists (IFTF, GBN, IAF, Club of Rome …)Popular Press (Kurzweil, Toffler, Schwartz …)

Corporations (Shell, Philips, Microsoft …)Popular Print (PopSci, TR, FT, Economist, WSJ …)

And for historical data (s-curves, stories)‘Invention & Technology’ the magazineCNRI Infrastructure Series (rail, phone, nrg, cash, radio)

Popular Science / Popular Mechanics

Movies are not valid as ‘data’, but they are fun.

Science fiction is not valid, and even more fun!

20007 / © William Cockayne / Slide 19

XX

XXX

X

X

?

?

??

??

?

??