recovery (?) in 2010? presented by: arthur n. jensen, phd emeritus professor of marketing, retired...

Recovery (?) in 2010?

Presented by:

Arthur N. Jensen, PhDEmeritus Professor of Marketing, RetiredCalifornia State University, Sacramento

Driving a car…. Blindfolded

Following the instructions of…

Someone looking out of the Back Window

1934

Jan-72 Jan-77 Jan-82 Jan-87 Jan-92 Jan-97 Jan-02 Jan-070.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

18.0

Sacramento Forecast Project

Federal Funds Rate

Conventional 30 year Mortgage Rate

Interest Rate = A rate which is charged or paid for the use of money or the value of money.

Average Price in 2008 = $99.57

Average Price in 2009 = $61.69

Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

$80.00

$90.00

$100.00

$110.00

$120.00

$130.00

$140.00

Sacramento Forecast Project

Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermedi-ate

@ $barrel

Data: FRED

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

34.0

35.0

36.0

37.0

38.0

39.0

40.0

PopulationCalifornia

July 1, in millions of persons

California

data: CA-DoF Sacramento Forecast Project

  Population1999 33.422000 34.102001 34.772002 35.362003 35.942004 36.452005 36.902006 37.302007 37.712008 38.132009 38.49

Births Deaths

2000 525.427 227.915

2001 529.395 231.737

2002 526.280 232.941

2003 537.419 233.295

2004 539.858 239.325

2005 547.137 231.054

2006 553.028 239.036

2007 564.556 240.496

2008 571.225 241.956

2009 547.315 231.550

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Deaths

BirthsNatural Increase

CaliforniaJuly 1, in thousands

Sacramento Forecast Project

data: CA-DoF

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

Net MigrationCalifornia

July 1, in thousands

Domestic Migra-tion

Net Immigration

data: CA-DoF Sacramento Forecast Project

  Net Domestic

2000 224.84 154.28

2001 267.61 106.25

2002 226.48 74.64

2003 204.23 74.67

2004 204.11 5.62

2005 181.73 -52.89

2006 195.80 -110.77

2007 225.90 -135.79

2008 241.81 -135.17

2009 179.49 -141.87

Visit the

Sacramento Forecast Project Website

at

http://sacramentoforecastproject.org

Art Jensen

anjensen01@gmail.com