recovery (?) in 2010? presented by: arthur n. jensen, phd emeritus professor of marketing, retired...
TRANSCRIPT
Recovery (?) in 2010?
Presented by:
Arthur N. Jensen, PhDEmeritus Professor of Marketing, RetiredCalifornia State University, Sacramento
Driving a car…. Blindfolded
Following the instructions of…
Someone looking out of the Back Window
1934
Jan-72 Jan-77 Jan-82 Jan-87 Jan-92 Jan-97 Jan-02 Jan-070.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
18.0
Sacramento Forecast Project
Federal Funds Rate
Conventional 30 year Mortgage Rate
Interest Rate = A rate which is charged or paid for the use of money or the value of money.
Average Price in 2008 = $99.57
Average Price in 2009 = $61.69
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
$80.00
$90.00
$100.00
$110.00
$120.00
$130.00
$140.00
Sacramento Forecast Project
Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermedi-ate
@ $barrel
Data: FRED
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
34.0
35.0
36.0
37.0
38.0
39.0
40.0
PopulationCalifornia
July 1, in millions of persons
California
data: CA-DoF Sacramento Forecast Project
Population1999 33.422000 34.102001 34.772002 35.362003 35.942004 36.452005 36.902006 37.302007 37.712008 38.132009 38.49
Births Deaths
2000 525.427 227.915
2001 529.395 231.737
2002 526.280 232.941
2003 537.419 233.295
2004 539.858 239.325
2005 547.137 231.054
2006 553.028 239.036
2007 564.556 240.496
2008 571.225 241.956
2009 547.315 231.550
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Deaths
BirthsNatural Increase
CaliforniaJuly 1, in thousands
Sacramento Forecast Project
data: CA-DoF
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
Net MigrationCalifornia
July 1, in thousands
Domestic Migra-tion
Net Immigration
data: CA-DoF Sacramento Forecast Project
Net Domestic
2000 224.84 154.28
2001 267.61 106.25
2002 226.48 74.64
2003 204.23 74.67
2004 204.11 5.62
2005 181.73 -52.89
2006 195.80 -110.77
2007 225.90 -135.79
2008 241.81 -135.17
2009 179.49 -141.87
Visit the
Sacramento Forecast Project Website
at
http://sacramentoforecastproject.org
Art Jensen