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Religare Morning Digest
March 21, 2016
Nifty Outlook
Nifty finally managed to cross its hurdle of 7600 after two weeks of struggle and gained of
over a percent on Friday. Sentiments were positive from the beginning in response to firm
global cues and strong opening in the rupee, but actual trigger came in the later half with
strong buying interest in the index majors across the board except pharma.
Now, 7690-7800 is what we are eyeing in Nifty; however, finding a trade won’t be easy due
to excessive volatility in stocks. So, we suggest focusing more on the stock selection and
limiting positions only to fundamentally sound counters. Though no particular sector has
emerged as favourite in the recent rebound, but we believe private banking, auto, IT and
select counters from capital good space to continue to do well.
VWAP (Expiry till date) Max OI (Call) Max OI (Put)
NIFTY 7350 7700 7400
Sectors to watch
Sector Name Outlook
CEMENT STABLE
OIL N GAS STABLE
BANKS STABLE
News Religare Super Ideas**
FII & DII activity (Rs. in Cr.) Trade Stats
Category Amt MTD YTD
FII 745 9815 (25764)
DII -168 (5561) 88593
NO OF CON-
TRACTS
TURNOVER IN CR
IDXFUTS 353325 18838
IDXOPT 4437018 246082
STK-
FUTS 553373 25683
Reliance Power board approved issue of non-convertible debentures for an aggregate
amount not exceeding Rs 1000 crore.
Torrent Pharmaceuticals has successfully obtained the Establishment Inspection Report
from the United States Food and Drug Administration for its plant located at Dahez SEZ, in
Gujarat.
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has received tentative approval from the US health regulator
for its generic version of Vimpat Oral Solution, used in treatment of epilepsy.
Derivative Ideas **
Instrument B/S Lot INITIATION
RANGE SL TARGET
BANKBARODA
APRIL FUTS BUY 3100 144-145 138 160
*FII & DII data as on 17th March 2016
Scrip Buy/Sell CMP Initiation
Range SL Target
UPL BUY 441 440-442 422 480
HAVELLS BUY 292.20 290-293 282 315
**Please note that the given technical and derivative recommendations will be
considered as initiated only if they trades within the given range on the
recommended date.
2 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
March 21, 2016
Religare Super Ideas
Investment Pick - SML Isuzu Limited
SMLISUZU
SML Isuzu Limited (SMLI) is engaged in the business of manufacturing Light commercial vehicles. The company manufactures buses, trucks and other customized vehicles like Ambulances, Prison van, Refrigerated van, etc. SML Isuzu is mainly concentrated in 5 to 12 tonnes GVW segment.
Key investment rationales are investment plan, focus on niche segment, collaboration with Isuzu Motors and operational leverage benefits.
Scrip CMP Target Duration Recommendation Price
SMLISUZU 750.70 1150 9-12 Months 869
BANKBARODA added 10.96% in open interest in
the month of April contract. We expect it to test
160 levels in short term.
Strategy:- BUY BANKBARODA APRIL FUTS @
144-145, SLOSS 138, TARGET 160.
Derivative Ideas
UPL Limited (UPL) Havells India Limited (HAVELLS)
UPL closed above its 200 EMA levels with decent
volumes, indicating strength. Current chart pattern
indicates breakout possible in coming sessions.
Hence, traders can buy it in range of 440-442, for
targets of 480.
Unlike benchmark index Nifty, HAVELLS is trading
above its long term average(200 EMA) on daily chart.
On Friday i.e. 18 March’16, it settled near days high,
indicating momentum to continue further.
3 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
March 21, 2016
Market Snapshot
Sectoral Indices Performance
Index Closing % Change % MTD % YTD
NIFTY Auto 7,663 -0.12% 8.0% -7.2%
NIFTY Bank 15,444 -0.11% 10.7% -8.7%
NIFTY Energy 8,229 0.75% 7.4% -4.1%
Nifty Financial Services 6,364 -0.29% 9.0% -9.8%
NIFTY FMCG 19,445 0.56% 6.1% -3.7%
NIFTY IT 10,924 1.11% 6.3% -2.6%
NIFTY Media 2,294 0.46% 5.9% -12.9%
NIFTY Metal 1,832 -0.04% 12.1% 0.3%
NIFTY Pharma 11,227 -1.36% 0.5% -6.2%
NIFTY PSU Bank 2,357 0.32% 15.7% -17.7%
NIFTY Realty 147 -0.95% 12.5% -15.1%
Top Gainers - Nifty
Stock CMP (INR) % Chg % MTD % YTD
VEDL 92.30 7.01% 30.7% 2.1%
HINDALCO 85.20 5.19% 23.9% 0.5%
ACC 1,337.20 4.99% 12.0% -1.7%
TCS 2,425.85 3.14% 11.4% -0.5%
GAIL 364.35 3.13% 19.4% -2.9%
Top Losers - Nifty
Stock CMP (INR) % Chg % MTD % YTD
LUPIN 1,554.40 -7.16% -11.4% -15.4%
SUNPHARMA 816.00 -1.36% -4.4% -0.5%
BPCL 856.90 -0.92% 11.4% -4.0%
POWERGRID 136.85 -0.83% 5.2% -3.0%
MARUTI 3,621.40 -0.39% 11.9% -21.6%
Bulk Deals - NSE
Security Name Client Name Buy/Sell Quantity Price Value (in Cr.)
NIIT Limited GLOBAL SOLUTIONS PRIVATE LIMITED BUY 3388492 78.75 26.68
NIIT Limited RENUKA V THADANI SELL 3388492 78.75 26.68
NIIT Limited PACE INDUSTRIES PRIVATE LIMITED BUY 1862608 78.75 14.67
NIIT Limited NEETI PAWAR SELL 1862608 78.75 14.67
Alok Industries Limited ADROIT FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE SELL 8332792 5.34 4.45
Alok Industries Limited ADROIT FINANCIAL SERVICES PRIVATE BUY 8290612 5.33 4.42
Rushil Decor Limited MARFATIA NISHIL SURENDRA SELL 166098 222.33 3.69
Rushil Decor Limited MARFATIA NISHIL SURENDRA BUY 166098 219.73 3.65
Reliance Indl Infra Ltd SHAASTRA SECURITIES TRADING PRIVATE SELL 82305 428.81 3.53
Reliance Indl Infra Ltd SHAASTRA SECURITIES TRADING PRIVATE BUY 82305 428.54 3.53
Delivery Spurt stocks
Stock Name Day's del. Vol. Del. Vol. Price
Page Industries 170,190 2329% 2.16%
Kansai Nerolac 1,217,336 2293% 1.09%
Rajesh Exports 1,614,019 1969% 4.41%
Shrenuj & Co. 144,800 1460% -4.79%
Hathway Cable 2,551,471 1432% -1.66%
Mahindra Life. 170,827 902% -0.54%
Rattanindia Pow. 11,850,244 830% -4.76%
Emami 1,055,700 798% 21.15%
Supreme Inds. 354,385 732% 5.70%
Tube Invest- 588,673 729% 0.87%
*Bulk deals data as on March 17, 2016
*Sectoral Indices data as on March 17, 2016
4 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
March 21, 2016
Corporate Action Calendar— March 2016 (Cash Dividend)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
20 21
Hero MotoCorp Ltd
22
Adani Ports & Special Economic
Zone Ltd
23 24 25 26
5 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
March 21, 2016
Current Portfolio and Performance Summary as on 18th March’16
Stock Sector Entry Date Weight Reco price (`) CMP (`)
HCL Technologies IT Oct 29, 2015 9.8% 932* 824
Hero MotoCorp Auto Aug 13, 2015 9.1% 2,660 2,831
Dewan Housing Finance
Corporation Financial Services Feb 10, 2016 14.3% 193* 177
Bata India Consumer Goods Nov 23, 2015 8.3% 488 489
Maruti Suzuki India Auto Mar 14, 2016 9.9% 3,663 3,621
Dabur India Consumer Goods Mar 14, 2016 10.0% 251 250
MT Educare Services Mar 14, 2016 10.2% 159 162
CRISIL Financial Services Mar 14, 2016 10.2% 1,785 1,801
Cash Cash 18.1%
Total Total 100%
*Weighted average price
*4.5% HCL Tech was bought at 983
*7.5% DHFL was bought at 237
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Religare Morning Digest
March 21, 2016
Historical Performance as on 18th March’16
Performance Matrix 1-Month 3-Month 6-Month 1-Year Since Inception
Religare Alpha 2.30% -8.45% -7.87% -9.38% 5.80%
Nifty 7.89% -3.06% -4.73% -11.93% -3.55%
Outperformance -5.59% -5.39% -3.14% 2.55% 9.35%
7 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
March 21, 2016
Research Product Basket
For cash market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Intraday Calls Intraday 2 - 3 < 1 day 25%
Live / RMD Calls Daily 3 - 4 3 - 4 days 30%
Master Pick Weekly 1 1 month 15%
Religare Alpha Opportunity NA 2 - 3 months 20%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
25,000 8,000
30,000 4,000
15,000 5,000
20,000 As per weightage
10,000
Intraday Calls These calls are flashed live on Ms Lync and ODIN with the purpose of squaring off positions on the same day. As a policy, we restrict our
intraday cash market calls to less than 4 calls a day. Hence, funds should be allocated accordingly to have provision to trade in all calls.
Live / RMD Calls 2 super ideas are flashed in RMD daily with a view of 3-4 days. Additionally as per market opportunity, we flash live calls during the day
(including BTST calls). 3-4 such calls are made on a daily basis which might be open for 3-4 days. Funds should be allocated keeping in mind that
there will be 7-8 such open calls daily.
Master Pick This is our weekly recommendation shortlisted on the basis of techno-funda analysis. 15% of funds is recommended to be allocated for Master
Pick considering that there will be 3 open calls. The average open duration for this call will be 1 month.
Religare Alpha This is a portfolio of 8-10 stocks which are held with a view of 2-3 months. It is recommended to allocate 20% of funds for building this portfolio
which will provide stability to the overall trading portfolio.
Cash 10% surplus cash in the portfolio should be kept for the purposes of allocating it to opportunities as and when they arrive.
For derivative market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Derivative Ideas Daily 1 - 2 1 - 3 days 40%
Live calls Intraday / Daily 1 - 2 3 - 4 days 50%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
40,000 40,000
50,000 50,000
10,000
Derivative Ideas 1 derivative idea is shared in RMD daily. It can be a plain vanilla F&O buy/sell call or an option strategy. Funds should be allocated assuming 2
such calls will be open at any time. These calls are open for 3-4 days on an average.
Live Calls These calls are flashed on MS Lync and ODIN during live market hours. These calls can be intraday or with a view of 2-3 days. Funds should be
allocated considering 2 such calls will be open at any time. 3/4 times, these calls will be on Nifty / Bank Nifty only.
Cash It is recommended to hold 10% cash to capitalize on any opportunity that may arise in markets.
For every client, the advisor must allocate a specific proportion of funds for trading and investing depending on the risk taking ability and willingness of the client
and their investment goals.
The below mentioned product basket tries to address the way to deal with the trading portfolio (cash/derivative) for optimum effectiveness of research calls.
It is recommended to divide your trading funds for various types of calls and not invest the entire amount for 1 or 2 calls only.
8 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
March 21, 2016
Hitesh Agrawal hitesh.agrawal@religare.com
Ajay Kumar Srivastava ajaykumar.s@religare.com
Ajay Pasari, CFA ajay.pasari@religare.com
Ajit Mishra ajit.mishra@religare.com
Ashish Bansal ashish.bansal@religare.com
Gaurav Sharma gaurav.sh@religare.com
Swati Saxena swati.saxena@religare.com
Manoj M Vayalar manoj.vayalar@religare.com
Vipin Kumar vipin.k@religare.com
Team Members
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Religare Morning Digest
March 21, 2016
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Statements on ownership and material conflicts of interest , compensation– Research Analyst (RA)
[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs, if in the event answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) below , are given separately]
Nature of Interest ( if answer to F (a) above is Yes : ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Name(s) with Signature(s) of RA(s).
[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs and if the answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) above , are given below]
Copyright in this document vests exclusively with RSL. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any
other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without prior written permission from RSL. We do not guarantee the integrity of any emails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person.
S. No. Statement Answer
Yes No
I/we or any of my/our relative has any financial interest in the subject company? [If answer is yes, nature of Interest is given below this table] No
I/we or any of my/our relatives, have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent. or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of the public appearance?
No
I/we or any of my/our relative, has any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance?
No
I/we have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation for products or services other than brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report? No
I/we have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company? No
I/we have been engaged in market making activity for the subject company? No
SS..No. Name(s) of RA.
Signtures of RA
Serial Question of question which the signing RA needs to make a separate declaration / answer
Yes No.
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