results from uiuc simple climate model evaluation of the relative contributions of the regional...

Results from UIUC Simple Climate Model

Evaluation of the Relative Contributions of the Regional Emissions by Annex I

and Non-Annex I to the Historical Global Temperature Change and Sea Level Rise

Natalia Andronova and Michael Schlesingernatasha@atmos.uiuc.edu schlesin@atmos.uiuc.eduClimate Research Group

Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Phase 1 - Initial check

• HadCM3 climate model4xCO2 A2 future emissions scenario

Timeframe: 1760 to 2100

Phase 2 - Sensitivity study

• four country groupsOECD in 1990 (OECD)Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (REF)Asia (ASIA) Africa and Latin America (ALM)

Timeframe

Emissions start dates: 1890 Emission end dates: 2000 The time for which the attribution calculations will be performed: 1980, 1990, 2000

Model parameters:

• Emissions :Historical: EDGAR database (1.3)

(http://www.rivm.nl/env/int/coredata/edgar/)

Future: A2 emission scenario from the IPCC SRES

• Emissions to Concentrations:

Schlesinger, M. E. and S. Malyshev (2002): Changes in Near-Surface Temperature and Sea Level for the Post-SRES CO2-Stabilization Scenarios.

Integrated Assessment, 2(3), 95-199.

• Concentrations to radiative forcing: as in the IPCC TAR.

(t) i(t)i 1

4

ij(t) eij (t)

eij(t)j1

4

i (t) , j 1,..., 4

ij(t)j 1

4

i(t) , i 1,...,4

temperature changeor

sea level rise

over gases

over regions

Case 1:the cumulative emissions for all species

Case 2:the cumulative emissions for GHGinstantaneous for sulfates

Case 3:the cumulative emissions for CO2&N2Oinstantaneous for CH4&sulfates

Global mean temperature change

ALM

Case 1:the cumulative emissions for all species

Case 2:the cumulative emissions for GHGinstantaneous for sulfates

Case 3:the cumulative emissions for CO2&N2Oinstantaneous for CH4&sulfates

SEA LEVEL RISE

Conclusions:

A cooling effect of the sulfate aerosol is highly important

Recommendations

other aerosols, such as those due to biomass burningand fossil fuelsother greenhouse gases, such as the chlorofluorocarbonsand tropospheric ozone

should be included in the analysis:

to use other coupled GCMs, with different climatesensitivities and different oceanic heat uptakes

to calibrate the simple climate model:

different databases for the historical emissions.