risk type - 'if you can't measure it you can't manage it

1

RISK TYPE You can’t manage it if you can’t measure it

2

Project management expertise •  Knowledge

Project Management Body of (PMBOK)/ Application Area Knowledge •  Skills

General Management/ Project Environment Management •  Methodology

Work breakdown structures/ Critical path analysis/ Earned value management/ ‘Agile’ ‘Lean’ ‘Kanban’ and ‘Six Sigma’ techniques

•  Qualifications •  Prince2/ ISEB/ APM/ MSP

•  Standards ISO/ ANSI/ ASTM/ AGA/ MTS/ AWS ARE/ IAAR/ RABQSA

3

PM qualifications

4

Project management expertise •  Methodology

Work breakdown structures Critical path analysis Earned value management ‘Agile’ ‘Lean’ ‘Kanban’ and ‘Six Sigma’ techniques

•  Software Issue tracking systems (ITS) Scheduling Project Portfolio Management (PPM) Resource management systems (RMS) Document management system (DMS) Work Flow Systems

5

PM knowledge areas

1. Project Integration Management 2. Project Scope Management 3. Project Time Management 4. Project Cost Management 5. Project Quality Management 6. Project Human Resource Management 7. Project Communications Management 8. Project Risk Management 9. Project Procurement Management 10. Project Stakeholders Management

6

Problem solved?

7

Sarah •  Intense: fearful, anxious, •  Pessimistic, self-doubting •  Worried, emotional, passionate •  Moody, changeable, irritable, mistrustful, •  Hates uncertainty (presume dangerous until proved otherwise) •  Expects the worst •  Fast driving (involuntary flinching, gasping and whimpering) •  Flying (would buy a parachute if she could) •  Sudden noises, disappointment, crossing roads, or as drivers, •  Stressed, prone to panic, over-react, •  Expects NOT to be liked, presume not to be accepted •  All good things must come to an end

8

Henry

•  Does nothing without approval •  Organises everything…..to the very last detail •  Plans everything well ahead •  Always has a back-up plan •  Suspicious of anything new •  Dislikes change •  Follows all the rules •  Requires training and qualifications for everything •  Inflexible •  Unsettled by ambiguity •  Respects tradition •  A place for everything and everything in its place

9

Juliette •  Impulsive •  Challenging •  Spontaneous •  Excitement seeking •  Uninhibited •  Imaginative •  Easily bored •  Distractible •  Individualistic •  Dismissive of petty rules •  Embraces change •  Sees uncertainty as opportunity •  Unpredictable •  A rolling stone gathers no moss

10

Peter •  Composed, placid •  Even tempered •  Serene, calm •  Utterly imperturbable •  Stress tolerant •  Poised •  Tranquil •  Unemotional •  Fearless •  Optimistic •  Confident •  Self-assured •  Phlegmatic •  All's for the best in the best of all possible worlds

11

What’s in the box?

12

Human Factors in the Doldrums

Human Factor Risk Assessment has been: 1. Based on a ‘snap shot’ of attitudes 2. Varied approaches with no consensus 3. Muddled and inconsistent

Content: temperament? situation? circumstances? Methodology: definitions? models? taxonomies?

13

1. RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

1. RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT

14

Risk & Personality

•  The significance of FFM •  Defining the domain •  Consensus at last •  Consistent over working life •  Deeply rooted

-  Emotional -  Extravert -  Agreeable -  Prudent -  Open-minded

15

Risk Elements of Personality •  Adventurous •  Apprehensive •  Attachment •  Careless •  Compliant •  Conforming •  Deliberate •  Emotional decision making •  Excitement seeking •  Focused

•  Forgiving •  Impulsive •  Methodical •  Optimistic •  Patient •  Perfectionist •  Reckless •  Resilient •  Sentimental •  Spontaneous •  Trusting

16

The Two Axes of Risk-Taking

Fear: Nervous v Fearless Apprehensive v Relaxed Brittle v Flexible Pessimistic v Optimistic Vulnerable v Daring Stressed v Calm

Impulsivity: Prudent v Carefree Compliant v Challenging Consistent v Unpredictable Detailed v Vague Planned v Impulsive Organised v Approximate

17

Four ‘pure’ Risk Types…….

18

….plus four complex Risk Types

19

The Risk-Type Compass

•  Continuous spectrum

•  Adjacent Risk Types blend

•  Facing Risk Types opposites

•  Central 10% Typical

•  Strongest at the edge

20

Eight Risk Types •  SPONTANEOUS

Uninhibited, excitable, unpredictable and distraught when things go wrong.

•  INTENSE Enthusiastic and committed, but pessimistic and easily defeated by set-backs.

•  WARY Well organised but, anxious and fearful of failure they passionately seek to control.

•  PRUDENT Cautious, self-controlled and most comfortable with continuity and familiarity.

•  DELIBERATE Imperturbable, confident and systematic they are fearless and well prepared.

•  COMPOSED Calm, cool headed and optimistic they seeming oblivious to risk.

•  ADVENTUROUS Calm and unemotional but impulsive, daring and up for any challenge.

•  CAREFREE Unconventional and excitement seeking, their imprudence makes life exciting.

21

Prevalence of Risk Types

22

2. A CRUCIAL DISTINCTION

2. A CRUCIAL DISTINCTION

23

Attitudes, the false lead •  Attitudes have causes, they are influenced

• Attitudes to disability • Attitudes to seat belts • Attitudes to drink-driving • Attitudes to financial risk

•  Attitudes are more effect than cause

24

Type, Attitude & Behaviour

RISK TYPE

BEHAVIOUR

RISK ATTITUDE

25

Risk Type •  Aspect of temperament •  Deeply rooted •  Persistent •  Pervasive •  Measurable •  Long term prediction

•  Kaleidoscopic •  Variable •  Superficial •  Readily influenced •  Not measurable •  Unpredictable

Risk Attitude

26

Risk Attitudes

27

Risk Tolerance Index (RTi)

28

3. RESEARCH REPORT ROAD MAP

3. SOME RESEARCH FINDINGS

29

Our IT Sample

30

Our Engineer Sample

31

Our Recruiter Sample

32

Our Auditor Sample

33

34

4. RELEVANCE & APPLICATIONS

35

Spheres of Application

•  Project Management •  Team Building •  Risk Management •  Compliance •  Underwriting

•  Coaching •  Auditor Certification •  Financial Advising •  Trader development •  Risk Culture

36

Individual Level •  Employment Screening

•  Re-deployment

•  Personal development

•  Advising in financial services

37

Team/ Group Level •  “Risky shift” – Risk polarisation phenomenon

•  Team self-awareness…and awareness of others

•  Team dynamics/ relationships/ communications

•  Team risk balance

•  Decision-making

38

Organisational Level •  The Risk-Type Compass™ in survey mode:

The Risk Culture (monolithic or mosaic?)

The Risk Landscape

39

Risk Landscape

RTi 96 THE BOARD EXEC II EXEC I

SALES

PROMO

HR

ACCOUNTS

FINANCE

L&D Rec

RISK & COMPLIANCE

40

Risk and Compliance Team

41

Individual Summary"

42

Organisational Survey Risk Map

43

Positive Risk Management •  The world needs risk takers:

• Entrepreneurs • Creatives • Sales people • Heroes • Challengers of the status quo

•  Enron vs Kodak – two ways to fail •  Risk Culture & Friendly Fire •  Manage for more risk as well as for less?

44

The End WEBINAR: 16th April at 8.00am BST & 9.00am

CEST. Also 4.00pm BST & 5.00pm CEST

Tel: +44 (0)1892 559540 Email: info@psychological-consultancy.com

www.psychological-consultancy.com LinkedIn Group – Risk Type Compass