sacramento sdat project

Reaching New HeightsDel Paso Heights

Wayne Feiden, FAICP Northampton MA

Darrel Williams, AIA Charlotte

Steve Cecil, AIA ASLABoston

Jason ClaunchDallas

Cesar Santoy, AIAChicago

1844 1850s 1890s 1905 1910 1920s 1965 1970s 2015

Rancho de Grimes(circa 1944)

Rancho Del Paso (1862)

James B.A. Haggins

Haggins’ Thoroughbred

horses

Ranch

1844 1850s 1890s 1905 1910 1920s 1965 1970s 2015

Ranch Del Paso subdivision/development (c. 1910)

Early Del Paso Heights area map (c. 1924)

Development of N. Sacramento suburbs

Liberty Iron Works, Del Paso Blvd. (c. 1918)

Subdivision/development

1844 1850s 1890s 1905 1910 1920 1930s 1965 1970s 2015

Farmer’s market (c. 1950s)

Local theater (c. 1930s)

Del Paso Heights suburb map (c. 1950s)

Craig’s Barber Shop (c. 1930s) Barbara Worth & horse (1930)

Urban

1844 1850s 1890s 1905 1910 1920 1930s 1965 1970s 2015

Merging of N. Sac. and Sac. (1965) Del Paso Heights Redevelopment Plan (1970s)

Annexation

1844 1850s 1890s 1905 1910 1920 1930s 1965 1970s 2015

NOW

Strengths

Needs

Home Values

Median Home Value2015 $168,4172020 $178,251

DemographicsHome Ownership: 60%Rental: 40%

Race/EthnicityWhite: 23%Black: 24%Asian: 23%Hispanic: 30%

Median Age: 27

138,000

22,160

21,74910,262

15,398

Mobility

Underutilization

Vacant lots

Creek walking path

Closed storefronts/fragmented ownership

Limited private & public servicesA Tale of 2 Libraries (Source: Measure of America)

SDAT workshop

Don’t let others define you

Values that support YOUR Identity

• Diversity

• Complete Neighborhood

• Place

• Opportunity

• Pride

Diversity

• Cultural

• Ethnic

• Economic

• Housing

Complete Neighborhood

mob

ility

mob

ility

mobility

mobility

Place

• Neighborhood Center

• Grant High School

• Parks & Open Space

• Urban Fabric

Opportunities

• Affordability

• Learning & knowledge

• Entrepreneurship

• Resources (follow vision)

Pride

• Sports/Pacers

• Diversity

• Festivals

• Cultural History

Make YOUR Identity

Values

• Diversity• Complete Neighborhood• Place• Opportunity• Pride

Strategic Approach

• Community Revitalization• Economic Revitalization• Community Design

Community Revitalization

Civic Empowerment

Community Organizing Umbrella EntityCommunity Organizing Umbrella Entity working with local Groups, Schools, House of Worship and City of Sacramento

Community Revitalization

Resources for Development

New Community Development Corporation and Community Development Corporation and Business Incubator Business Incubator to match Del Paso Heights with Resources

Community Revitalization

Housing Choices for Owner and Renters

Community Organizations Community Organizations to promote Housing & Rental Stock Mental Health ResourcesMental Health Resources to address Homelessness

Community Revitalization

Mobility and Transit

Transit Access PlanTransit Access Plan, Pedestrian-friendly Pedestrian-friendly Streets, Enhanced Bike RoutesStreets, Enhanced Bike Routes

Community Revitalization

Health & Wellness

Urban AgricultureUrban Agriculture can be a new Del Paso Heights Industry

Health Disparities Source: Healthy Sacramento

RESIDENTIAL DEMAND

Understanding the need

2015 Median County Income 80% of Median Household Income

County Name Median Area Income 1 Person 2 People 3 People 4 People 5 People 6 People 7+ People Total

Sacramento County $71,500 40,050 45,800 51,500 57,200 61,800 66,400 70,950

2015 Households by Income Del PasoHousehold Income Base 1,148 270 276 184 157 107 68 88 1,149.15

<$15,000 26% 69.60 71.08 47.39 40.58 27.55 17.47 22.81 296.48 $15,000 - $24,999 15% 10.16 10.38 6.92 5.92 4.02 2.55 3.33 43.29 $25,000 - $34,999 16% 1.65 1.68 1.12 0.96 0.65 0.41 0.54 7.01 $35,000 - $49,999 20% 0.33 0.33 0.22 0.19 0.13 0.08 0.11 1.40 $50,000 - $74,999 14% 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.20 $75,000 - $99,999 6% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 $100,000 - $149,999 3% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $150,000 - $199,999 1% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 $200,000+ 0% 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Study Area Average Household Income

$37,141

Count @ 80% AMI 81.41 83.48 55.65 47.65 32.35 20.52 26.80 348.39

Annual Multifamily DemandEstimated Annual Demand Potential for MultifamilyBased on 2015 - 2020 County Demographic Trends

Monthly Rent   $500 $750 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000     $750 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 And Up               Qualifying Income   Less Than $35,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 $35,000 $50,000 $75,000 $100,000 And Up Total

    2015 Total Households1 526,102 2020 Total Households1 543,659 Avg. Annual Household Growth 3,511

    New Household Growth Total Annual New Households1 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511% Income Qualified 28% 13% 19% 14% 25% 99%# Income Qualified 983 456 667 492 878 3,476Renter Propensity 71% 51% 41% 31% 18% 44%Qualified New Households 698 233 274 152 158 1,515

Existing Owner Household Estimated Owners in Turnover that Rent 2,673 699 1,183 1,082 1,598 7,235

Existing Renter Households Estimated Renters in Turnover that Rent 29,337 9,522 9,057 3,215 2,969 54,101

Income Qualified Households Total Potential Demand 32,708 10,454 10,514 4,449 4,725 62,850Percent New Renters3 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 2%Total Potential Demand for New Units 698 233 274 152 158 1,515

City Capture Rate3,4 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%Total Potential New Multifamily Demand 70 23 27 15 16 151

1. ESRI2. US Census American Community Survey3. US Census American Housing Survey4. US Census Building Permits Survey

Annual Single Family DemandEstimated Annual Demand Potential For Purchase Residential

Based on 2015 - 2020 County Demographic Trends

Home Value   less than $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000     $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 and above     Qualifying Income   less than $40,000 $65,000 $90,000 $110,000 $125,000 $150,000 $200,000 $40,000 $65,000 $90,000 $110,000 $125,000 $150,000 $200,000 Total

2015 Total Households1 526,102

2020 Total Households1 543,659

Avg. Annual Household Growth 3,511

New Household GrowthTotal Annual New Households1 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511 3,511% Income Qualified 32% 20% 15% 10% 5% 6% 6% 5% 99%# Income Qualified 1,124 702 527 351 176 211 211 176 3,476Owner Propensity 30% 55% 63% 72% 75% 82% 89% 84% 56%Qualified New Households 337 386 332 253 132 173 188 147 1,947

Existing Owner HouseholdEstimated Owners in Turnover that Rent 636 810 2,088 966 513 738 1,534 1,485 8,770

Existing Renter HouseholdsEstimated Renters in Turnover that Rent 3,450 4,353 3,409 2,354 1,331 1,246 483 859 17,485

Income Qualified HouseholdsTotal Potential Demand 4,424 5,549 5,829 3,573 1,976 2,156 2,205 2,491 28,202Percent New Renters3 86% 85% 64% 73% 74% 66% 30% 40% 69%Total Potential Demand for New Units 3,787 4,739 3,741 2,607 1,463 1,418 671 1,006 19,432

Del Paso Capture Rate3,4 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%Total Potential New Single Family Demand 76 95 75 52 29 28 13 20 389

1. ESRI2. US Census American Community Survey3. US Census American Housing Survey4. US Census Building Permits Survey

RETAIL DEMAND

Retail Distribution(5 – 10 min trade areas)

Distribution of population(by age)

Retail Supportable Commuter Traffic

138,000

22,160

21,749

10,262

15,398

Retail Demand5 min consumer shed

  Demand Supply Retail Gap Demand (2020)

Demand (2025)

Retail Gap Estimated

Category (Retail Potential)

(Retail Sales)   (Retail Potential)

(Retail Potential) 2025

Supportable SF

Auto Parts, Accessories & Tire Stores $2,182,274 $11,972,221 -$9,789,947 $2,264,109 $2,349,013 -$9,623,208 0Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores $3,887,468 $5,708,811 -$1,821,343 $4,033,248 $4,184,495 -$1,524,316 0Furniture Stores $2,079,100 $3,867,410 -$1,788,310 $2,157,066 $2,237,956 -$1,629,454 0Home Furnishings Stores $1,808,369 $1,841,401 -$33,032 $1,876,183 $1,946,540 $105,139 350Electronics & Appliance Stores $3,982,231 $7,486,574 -$3,504,343 $4,131,565 $4,286,498 -$3,200,076 0Bldg Material & Supplies Dealers $3,988,351 $3,383,369 $604,982 $4,137,914 $4,293,086 $909,717 3032Lawn & Garden Equip & Supply Stores $530,095 $444,222 $85,873 $549,974 $570,598 $126,376 421Grocery Stores $27,913,903 $25,868,978 $2,044,925 $28,960,674 $30,046,700 $4,177,722 13926Specialty Food Stores $1,165,135 $806,731 $358,404 $1,208,828 $1,254,159 $447,428 1491Beer, Wine & Liquor Stores $1,761,283 $1,899,022 -$137,739 $1,827,331 $1,895,856 -$3,166 0Health & Personal Care Stores $12,907,200 $1,487,850 $11,419,350 $13,391,220 $13,893,391 $12,405,541 41352Gasoline Stations $14,846,822 $69,722,212 -$54,875,390 $15,403,578 $15,981,212 -$53,741,000 0Clothing Stores $8,916,882 $3,112,705 $5,804,177 $9,251,265 $9,598,188 $6,485,483 21618Shoe Stores $1,438,584 $0 $1,438,584 $1,492,531 $1,548,501 $1,548,501 5162Jewelry, Luggage & Leather Goods Stores $1,408,784 $252,683 $1,156,101 $1,461,613 $1,516,424 $1,263,741 4212Sporting Goods/Hobby/Musical Instr Stores $2,969,350 $965,384 $2,003,966 $3,080,701 $3,196,227 $2,230,843 7436Book, Periodical & Music Stores $808,076 $663,089 $144,987 $838,379 $869,818 $206,729 689Department Stores Excluding Leased Depts. $10,215,136 $2,723,320 $7,491,816 $10,598,204 $10,995,636 $8,272,316 27574Other General Merchandise Stores $14,940,203 $8,224,016 $6,716,187 $15,500,461 $16,081,728 $7,857,712 26192Miscellaneous Store Retailers $4,953,398 $5,856,735 -$903,337 $5,139,150 $5,331,869 -$524,866 0Florists $221,229 $406,105 -$184,876 $229,525 $238,132 -$167,973 0Office Supplies, Stationery & Gift Stores $898,287 $1,547,323 -$649,036 $931,973 $966,922 -$580,401 0Used Merchandise Stores $411,501 $1,103,440 -$691,939 $426,932 $442,942 -$660,498 0Food Services & Drinking Places $18,710,161 $24,881,365 -$6,171,204 $19,411,792 $20,139,734 -$4,741,631 0Full-Service Restaurants $8,796,335 $5,634,844 $3,161,491 $9,126,198 $9,468,430 $3,833,586 12779Limited-Service Eating Places $8,551,868 $18,408,707 -$9,856,839 $8,872,563 $9,205,284 -$9,203,423 0Special Food Services $810,970 $472,073 $338,897 $841,381 $872,933 $400,860 1336Drinking Places - Alcoholic Beverages $550,987 $365,741 $185,246 $571,649 $593,086 $227,345 758

168,330 Assumptions

3.75%growth rate

Retail Attraction

EMPLOYMENT

Population Comparison

MillennialGen Y

Gen Z Gen XBaby Boomer

Silent Gen.

38% 35% 28% 8%Del Paso:

Area

most members of this generation are at the beginning of their careers

Workforce Distribution

Del Paso Heights Workforce Composition

Activating Economic Diversity• 35% of Del Paso Heights

arriving at career age ~10k/yr• 11.9% unemployment ~ 5k

25+ out of work• 28% of 25+ did not graduate

from high school

Job CreationInnovation Centers

Types of Incubator Centers:Co-Work Office SpacesMakers Spaces / LabsFood Centers / Kitchens Music/Film/Art StudiosHealth What is the Value of an Incubator/Innovation Center? -A hub of activity dedicated to collaboration, creativity and opportunity-A nexus for exchange of ideas and partnerships, among universities and businesses-A neighborhood to live, to work, play and learn within walking distance to transportation -A building providing views of academia and private industry interacting at work-A catalyst for job creation and economic development-A key strategy in attracting, retaining, and growing an educated talent base

http://www.sierrahealth.org/nic

Incubator Center Operating Costsest. 7,500 sf

Mixed Use Development with Innovation Center Anchor - Del PasoInnovation Center Breakeven Analysis

Mar-15Innovation Center Costs

Annual % Increase Cost Categories Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

0.00% Building Rent $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 $58,322 3.00% Salaries/Benefits $125,000 $128,750 $132,613 $136,591 $140,689 $144,909 $149,257 $153,734 $158,346 $163,097 3.00% Payroll/Admin Costs $7,500 $7,725 $7,957 $8,195 $8,441 $8,695 $8,955 $9,224 $9,501 $9,786 2.00% Liability Insurance $1,200 $1,224 $1,248 $1,273 $1,299 $1,325 $1,351 $1,378 $1,406 $1,434 2.00% Event Costs $10,000 $10,200 $10,404 $10,612 $10,824 $11,041 $11,262 $11,487 $11,717 $11,951 2.00% Furnishings/Fixtures $7,500 $7,650 $7,803 $7,959 $8,118 $8,281 $8,446 $8,615 $8,787 $8,963 2.00% Supplies $10,000 $10,200 $10,404 $10,612 $10,824 $11,041 $11,262 $11,487 $11,717 $11,951

2.00%Equipment

Maintenance $5,000 $5,100 $5,202 $5,306 $5,412 $5,520 $5,631 $5,743 $5,858 $5,975 2.00% Marketing $15,000 $15,300 $15,606 $15,918 $16,236 $16,561 $16,892 $17,230 $17,575 $17,926 1.00% Miscellaneous $10,000 $10,100 $10,201 $10,303 $10,406 $10,510 $10,615 $10,721 $10,829 $10,937

Total: $249,522 $254,571 $259,760 $265,093 $270,573 $276,205 $281,994 $287,943 $294,058 $300,343 Note: Largest cost component is Salaries/Benefits -- Cost assumes 1 full-time and 1 part-time employee.

Annual Funding Needs $249,522 $254,571 $259,760 $265,093 $270,573 $276,205 $281,994 $287,943 $294,058 $300,343

IncubatorPotential Funding

Innovation Center Anchor - Del Paso

Innovation Center Breakeven Analysis

Mar-15

% of Funding Revenue Categories Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

25.00%Memberships/User

Fees $62,381 $63,643 $64,940 $66,273 $67,643 $69,051 $70,498 $71,986 $73,514 $75,086

5.00% Rental Fees $12,476 $12,729 $12,988 $13,255 $13,529 $13,810 $14,100 $14,397 $14,703 $15,017

20.00% Partnerships $49,904 $50,914 $51,952 $53,019 $54,115 $55,241 $56,399 $57,589 $58,812 $60,069

25.00% Contracts $62,381 $63,643 $64,940 $66,273 $67,643 $69,051 $70,498 $71,986 $73,514 $75,086

15.00% Sponsorships $37,428 $38,186 $38,964 $39,764 $40,586 $41,431 $42,299 $43,191 $44,109 $45,051

5.00% Grants $12,476 $12,729 $12,988 $13,255 $13,529 $13,810 $14,100 $14,397 $14,703 $15,017

5.00% Contributions $12,476 $12,729 $12,988 $13,255 $13,529 $13,810 $14,100 $14,397 $14,703 $15,017

0.00% Other $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

0.00% Other $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

100.00% Total: $249,522 $254,571 $259,760 $265,093 $270,573 $276,205 $281,994 $287,943 $294,058 $300,343

Job Training Strategy

• Foster greater collaboration among existing businesses, non-profits and higher education for job training and adult education.

• Cultivating employer relationships with an understanding of the needs of potential employers

• Incentify local businesses to hire Del Paso workforce.• Use Labor-market Information to Target Sectors that

Hire Entry-level Workers that Fit Your Populations Served

• Continually Evaluate Job Development Success

Strategic Training

TESTING THE VISION

Source: http://news.theregistrysf.com/cbre-sells-42-unit-mixed-use-portfolio-piedmont-avenue-neighborhood/

Testing the VisionRetail – Mixed Use

                                    Mixed-Use Development Pro Forma - Scenario A      Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 11 Year 12 Year 13 Year 14 Year 15

 Net Operating Income

Multi family $250,789 $258,313 $241,875 $249,131 $256,605 $264,303 $272,232 $280,399 $288,811 $297,475 $306,400 $315,592 $325,059 $334,811 $344,855

For-sale Housing $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

Office/Commercial $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

Retail $126,078 $259,707 $264,775 $272,107 $279,325 $286,427 $293,409 $300,270 $309,379 $315,986 $324,835 $331,175 $339,751 $348,186 $356,475

Hotel $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

Structured Parking $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

  Total NOI   $376,867 $518,020 $506,649 $521,237 $535,930 $550,730 $565,641 $580,669 $598,190 $613,461 $631,235 $646,767 $664,811 $682,997 $701,330

 Development Costs

Multi family $1,637,185 $1,289,524 $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

For-sale Housing $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

Office/Commercial $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

Retail $1,550,313 $1,589,070 $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

Hotel $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

Structured Parking $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- Other Infrastructure (1)

$- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

 Total Development Costs

$3,187,498 $2,878,594 $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

 Annual Cash Flow

Net Operating Income

$376,867 $518,020 $506,649 $521,237 $535,930 $550,730 $565,641 $580,669 $598,190 $613,461 $631,235 $646,767 $664,811 $682,997 $701,330

Total Asset Value@

10% $7,013,301

Total Costs of Sale (2) @

5% $(350,665)

Total Development Costs

$(3,187,498) $(2,878,594) $- $- $- $- - $- $- $- $- $- $- $- $-

  Net Cash Flow   $(2,810,630) $(2,360,574) $506,649 $521,237 $535,930 $550,730 $565,641 $580,669 $598,190 $613,461 $631,235 $646,767 $664,811 $682,997 $7,363,967

 Net Present Value

@10% $488,284    

Unleveraged IRR:

11.3%                   

(1) Other Infrastructure costs are not allocated among each of the uses. The project net present value is therefore less than the sum of the net present values for the individual uses. (2) Assumes asset sale in Year 15.

Source: Catalyst Commercial

Community DesignNeighborhood Opportunities

Del Paso Neighborhood

Community Design

New Retail Infill

Outdoor Basketball Arena

Enhanced Bike & Creek Trail

]

New Residential InfillCommunity Design

Marysville Corridor

Community Design

Marysville Corridor

Community Design

Grand Avenue

Grant High School

Police Station

South Avenue

Urban League

Old Grocery

Community DesignDel Paso Center

Grand Avenue

Grant High School

Police Station

South Avenue

Urban League

Old Grocery

New Housing

New Mixed Use

Plazas and Shops

New Health Services

New Housing/Mixed Use

Infill Housing/Mixed Use

New Shop

Community Design

Community Design

Community Design

Community Design

Community Design

Public/Private PartnershipsPublic/Private PartnershipsCommunity Development Corporation Projects Community Development Corporation Projects Private Sector ReinvestmentPrivate Sector Reinvestment

Community Design

• Parcel assembly using City property and right-of-ways

• Competitive Requests for Development Proposals

• Incentives in zoning

Del Paso Heights is a diverse and affordable community with preferred neighborhoods, great parks, a sense of place, community and pride, where we have opportunities and our daily needs are meet.

Presentation at: www.aia.org/liv_sdat