scientists speak on global capacity victoria salin, ph.d. texas a&m university...

Scientists Speak on Global Capacity Victoria Salin, Ph.D. Texas A&M University

v-salin@tamu.edu @SalinVicky https://www.linkedin.com/pub/vicky-salin/7/6b7/b39

Overview

• Capacity - 552 million cubic meters, 2014 • 20% higher than 2012• 6% annualized growth in last two years• 58 countries reporting• For more detail, please see 2014 IARW Global

Cold Storage Capacity Report

Global Capacity 2008-2014

• 13% annual growth rate over this 6 yr period

• In 2010 there was an update for China & India

Million cubic

meters

2008 266

2010 458

2012 496

2014 552

Growth in Global Refrigerated Warehouse Capacity

2008 2010 2012 20140

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Countries reportingCapacity million m3

India > USA as largest country market

India

United St

ates

ChinaJap

an

Great B

ritain

German

yBraz

il

Netherl

ands

France Ira

n

Indonesia

Canad

aSp

ain

Turke

y

Australi

a

Mexico Ita

lyChile

Egyp

t

Denmark

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140130

114

76

3224 23

16 16 15 14 128 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3

Refrigerated warehouse capacity, 2014, in million cubic meters

Annualized growth in refrig. space, 2010 and 2014

Turkey

Netherlands

Brazil

India

Great Britain

China

Germany

USA

Italy

Canada

France

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2014

2010

Long-term CAGR (%)

Markets w Unmet Need/Potential, Based on Urban Population

Brazil

Egypt

Morocco

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

Nepal

Mexico

Libya

Panama

Hungary

Poland

Romania

Ukraine

Peru

El Salvador

South Africa

Oman

Yemen

0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.1

0.09

0.09

0.09

0.07

0.06

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.03

0.03

0.02

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

Largest ratios of refrigerated space to urban population

Middle Eastern Markets Are Included for the First Time

Tunisia

Turkey

Egypt

Morocco

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

Libya

Oman

Yemen

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2

USA Public Warehousing Growth

'55 '57 '59 '61 '63 '65 '67 '69 '71 '73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 -

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000

Public Private

Retail Supermarket Development

China India Russia Brazil South Africa

Modern Sales 0.6449 0.0178 0.6141 0.5069 0.5507

Modern Outlets 0.0533754483644735 0.000482606072793083

0.101392247032981 0.0219125305349807 0.115093004448039

5.00%

15.00%

25.00%

35.00%

45.00%

55.00%

65.00%Shaded bar is % of food sales in modern format (supermarket/hypermarket)

Solid bar is % of food outlets that are modern format

Annual growth modern supermarket sales, per capita, 2008-2013

Research Needed for Prediction

As I stated in a focus session at Convention 2011, • Macroeconomic linkages• Disposable income

derived demand• International trade• Business structures• Demand from customers

in local markets

Recent forecast by Markets and Research, reported in Food Logistics online). Cold storage warehousing is predicted to have an “…annual growth rate of 15.75 percent and 10.53 percent in terms of revenue and volume, respectively, over the period 2014 to 2019.”

Was it based on a valid predictive model?

Acknowlegements – Research Assistance from:

• Yun Gao• Chuks Anselm• Chelsea Takahashi

• Dr. Victoria SalinCo-Director of the Agribusiness, Food, & Consumer Economics Research Center

Contact: v-salin@tamu.edu Tel. 979.845.8103@SalinVicky https://www.linkedin.com/pub/vicky-salin/7/6b7/b39

PLEASE CONTACT ME WITH IDEAS AND QUESTIONS