session 7: family formation and social demography
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Session 7:Family Formation and Social Demography
Karl Ulrich Mayer
Life Course Research:Theoretical Issues, Empirical Applications and Methodological Problems
Sociological Methodology Workshop Series, Academia Sinica, Taipei, TaiwanSeptember 20-24, 2004
Outline
Micro-Theory
The De-Standardization of the Life Course (Brückner/Mayer 2004)
Family Formation in Times of Abrupt Social and Economic Change (Huinink/Kreyenfeld 2004)
Human Capital Investments or Norms of Role Transition? (Blossfeld/Huinink 1991)
Gender, Social Inequality, and Family Formation in West Germany (Huinink/Mayer 1995)
Micro-Theory
Age Norms
Cognitions and Control Beliefs
Biographical Schemas
Life Review
Micro-Theory Concepts
Continuity / Discontinuity
Stabilization / Change
Differentiation / Integration
Inter-Individual Differences vs. Intra-Individual Change
External – Internal
Stimulus – Mechanism
Chrnological Age vs. Duration of Exposure (to risk)
Micro-Theory of the Life CourseBody / Genes Organic development / maturation and functional aging
Cognitive development and cognitive decline
Psyche Personality development
(temperament, coping styles, extroversion-introversion,
control beliefs)
Actor / Interaction Social norms for life phases
(infant, child, adolescent, adult, old age)
Age norms for transitions / chronological and
subjective age (on-time, off-time)
Biographical projects, continuity and consistency
Life goals, life designs
Self-regulation
(gains and losses, selective optimization with
compensation, persistency, domain specificity)
Consolation prizes, cooling out
Causal Micro-Theories of the Life Course
Resource accumulation and resource conversion:Status attainment and human capital
Disadvantages and handicaps
Critical life events, turning points (e.g. midlife crisis)
Protective factors, vulnerable conditions(e.g. early marriage, delayed marriage)
The children of the Great Depression:Accumulation and accentuation / social deprivation and the army
Switching points(Magnusson‘s early menarche girls, Grundmann‘s sons of stepfathers, early marriage and the intergenerational transmission of divorce
Age and Deliquency(Sampson / Laub’s replication of the Glueck study and the effect of marriage)
Changes in American Family Structure as the Result of Improved Life Expectancy 1900-1976
The probability that... 1900 1976
1) A child would experience death of a parent by age 15.
24% 5%
2) Marriage would end in widowhood before the 40th anniversary.
67% 36%
3) A 15-year-old would have 3 or 4 living grandparents.
17% 55%
4) A middle-aged couple would have at least 2 of their parents alive.*
10% 47%
* The demographic shift changes the idea of what a family is. Adapted from: Uhlenberg, 1980
Source: Bengtson, Vern L. and Katherine Allen (1992): "The Life Course Perspective Applied to Families Over Time." In: Pauline Boss, William Doherty, Robert La Rossa, Walter Schumm, and Suzanne Steinmetz (eds.), Sourcebook of Family Theories and Methods: A Contextual Approach. New York, N.Y.: Plenum Press, Pp. 469-499.
Graphics from:
Brückner, Hannah and Karl Ulrich Mayer (2004): "The De-Standardization of the Life Course: What It Might Mean and If It Means Anything Whether it Actually Took Place." Paper presented at the Research Committee 28 (RC28) on Social Stratification and Mobility, Neuchâtel Meeting "Social Stratification, Mobility, and Exclusion". Neuchâtel, Switzerland, 7-9 May 2004.
(forthcoming) in: Advances in Life Course Research.
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Women
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
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17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920
0
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17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Women
0
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0,1
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17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Women
0
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0,1
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17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Women
0
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0,1
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17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Women
0
0,02
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0,06
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0,1
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17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955 1960
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Women
0
0,02
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0,06
0,08
0,1
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17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955 1960 1964
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Women
0
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17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955 1960 1964 1971
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Women
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Men
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
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17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920
0
0,02
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0,06
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0,1
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17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Men
0
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0,06
0,08
0,1
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17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Men
0
0,02
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0,06
0,08
0,1
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0,14
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Men
0
0,02
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0,06
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0,1
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17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Men
0
0,02
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0,06
0,08
0,1
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0,14
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955 1960
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Men
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
0,12
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17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955 1960 1964
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Men
0
0,02
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0,06
0,08
0,1
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0,14
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955 1960 1964 1971
Marriage Timing by Cohort and Age, Men
Timing of First Childbirth by Age and Cohort, Women
0
0,02
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0,06
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0,1
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18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920
0
0,02
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0,06
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18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930
Timing of First Childbirth by Age and Cohort, Women
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
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18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940
Timing of First Childbirth by Age and Cohort, Women
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
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0,1
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18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950
Timing of First Childbirth by Age and Cohort, Women
0
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18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955
Timing of First Childbirth by Age and Cohort, Women
0
0,02
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18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955 1960
Timing of First Childbirth by Age and Cohort, Women
0
0,02
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18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955 1960 1964
Timing of First Childbirth by Age and Cohort, Women
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0,1
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18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955 1960 1964 1971
Timing of First Childbirth by Age and Cohort, Women
Timing of First Child Birth by Cohort and Age, Men
0
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16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920
0
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16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930
Timing of First Child Birth by Cohort and Age, Men
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16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
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%
1920 1930 1940
Timing of First Child Birth by Cohort and Age, Men
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16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950
Timing of First Child Birth by Cohort and Age, Men
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0,06
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16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955
Timing of First Child Birth by Cohort and Age, Men
0
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16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955 1960
Timing of First Child Birth by Cohort and Age, Men
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
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16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955 1960 1964
Timing of First Child Birth by Cohort and Age, Men
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
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0,14
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34
Age
%
1920 1930 1940 1950 1955 1960 1964 1971
Timing of First Child Birth by Cohort and Age, Men
Tables and graphics from:
Huinink/Kreyenfeld
Huinink, Johannes and Michaela Kreyenfeld (2004): "Family formation in times of social and economic change: an analysis of the 1971 East German cohort." WP-2004-013 (April 2004). Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock.
Tables and graphics from:
Blossfeld, Hans-Peter and Johannes Huinink (1991): "Human Capital Investments or Norms of Role Transition? How women's schooling and career affect the process of family formation." American Journal of Sociology 97 (1 (July 1991)): 143-168.
Tables and graphics from:
Huinink, Johannes and Karl Ulrich Mayer (1995): "Gender, Social Inequality, and Family Formation in West Germany." In: Karen Oppenheim Mason and An-Magrit Jensen (eds.), Gender and Family Change in Industrialized Countries. Oxford: Clarendon Press, Pp. 168-199.
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