society of actuaries international experience study

Society Of ActuariesInternational Experience Study

Bill Horbatt

Chair, SOA IESWG

Background on

International Experience Study

IES is a Joint Venture

• SOA Research Department• IAA Mortality Working Group• Corporate sponsors• SOA International Section• Local Actuarial Associations

IES Outreach Effort

• No Cost to participating companies

• SOA confidentially compiles data

• Local actuaries supervision

• SOA / IAA expert advice

Finances

Contributions

Company EU ISC SOA

Finances

Expenses

Tool Travel

Finances

• MOST IMPORTANT

– Volunteer Time!– Over 50 companies have participated– Over 1,000 hours invested

Results

International Experience Study

Results

• Argentina**• Caribbean*• Estonia• Poland**• Philippines• Vietnam

* sample **small sample

10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Argentina Exposure

Male

Female

Issue Age

Po

licy

Yea

rs

10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Caribbean Exposure

MaleFemale

Issue Age

Polic

y Ye

ars

10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Estonia Exposure

MaleFemale

Issue Age

Polic

y Ye

ars

10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Philippines Exposure

Male

Female

Issue Age

Po

licy

Yea

rs

10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

Poland Exposure

Male

Female

Issue Age

Po

licy

Yea

rs

10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Vietnam Exposure

Male

Female

Issue Age

Po

licy

Yea

rs

Results - Caution

• All results are tentative• Limited editing and quality analysis• Early experience

– Limited staff experience– New System controls will be prospective

Results

Policy Persistency

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Lapse Rates

ArgentinaCaribbeanEstoniaPhilippinesPolandVietnam

Policy Duration

Laps

e Ra

te

Results

Actual to Tabular Mortality

10 22 27 32 37 42 47 52 57 62 670%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Actual vs. Expected Mortality

ArgentinaCaribbeanEstoniaPhilippinesPolandVietnam

Issue Age

% o

f 197

7-80

SO

A Se

lect

& U

ltim

ate

Results

Additional Results

• Caribbean

0 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 800

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Caribbean Exposure

Insurance

Annuity

Issue Age

Po

licy

Yea

rs

0 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 800%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Caribbean Actual to Tabular Mortality

Insurance

Annuity

Issue Age

% C

IA 1

986-

92

Insurance A/T Annuity A/T 10 Year Persistency0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Caribbean Trend from 2002-4 to 2005-7

2002 to 2004

2005 to 2007

Status

• Experience Study Tool 2.0 released• Hong Kong Actuarial Society

– Using SOA Tool

• Other countries - incomplete– Brazil– Guatemala

• Ronora Stryker, Research Actuary, SOA– rstryker@soa.org

• Bill Horbatt, Chair SOA IESWG– horbatt@actuarialconsortium.com

• Martin Stevenson, Chair IAA MWG– Martin.Stevenson@mercer.com

Contact Details