south east london sub-region strategic housing market assessment jonathan lee chris broughton...

South East London sub-regionStrategic Housing Market Assessment

Jonathan Lee Chris Broughton

Opinion Research Services

Issues for Discussion…

•What is the role of the South East London boroughs in relation to Greater London?

•What are their individual and collective strengths and weaknesses?

•Do the South East London boroughs constitute a cohesive sub-region?

•What are the opportunities and threats for these boroughs in the current market?

•How might things change over the longer-term?

Presentation Overview •Introduction

•Current housing market

•Population growth

•Migration and economy

•Recent market changes

Introducing ORS •Generic social research organisation

– Spin-out company from Swansea University

– Established in 1988, not primarily commercial

– 40 full-time staff

– Specialise in quantitative and qualitative research methods

•Research includes

– Housing & planning – SHMAs, need/demand analysis

– Health – promotion/primary/secondary care

– Local government – Panels/BVPI/employees

– Emergency services – police and fire

•Greater London Authority– Regional SHMA 2008

•Quality Reviews for EERA and GOEM– Identifying good practice in Strategic HMA work

•Further Strategic HMA work– Bedfordshire, LCB East, LCB West, Milton Keynes,

Greater Norwich, Exeter/Torbay, West Cornwall, Birmingham, South East Wales, Neath Port Talbot

•Over 60 further local housing studies

•English Partnerships– Accredited consultants for SHMA work

Housing Research Portfolio

The PPS3 Vision SHMA SHLAA

Housing Trajectory & Mix

Annual Monitoring Report

Housing & PDL Targets (Local & Regional)

PLAN

MONITOR

MANAGE

What is an SHMA?

•The Vision

– a key tool to inform policy and help shape strategic thinking in housing and planning

•The Basics

– a robust evidence base

– promotes joint working

– not a snap-shot survey but an ongoing process

– provides estimate of the need for affordable housing and demand for market housing

– helps understand requirements of niche groups

• ‘an exercise of judgement, rather than a simple analysis of factual material’ (North West RSS EiP Panel Report 08 05 07)

Approach in South East London

•Household survey

– personal interviews

– addresses selected at random

– detailed interviews

– overall sample size = 7,250 households– Bexley 1,250 – Bromley 1,250 – Greenwich 1,500

– Lewisham 1,500 – Southwark 1,750

•Secondary data analysis

•Stakeholder engagement– Developers – RSLs – Estate and Letting Agents

– Private Landlords – Housing Front-line Staff – Planners

– Supporting People Commissioners – Lenders – HEIs

– Business Community – Neighbouring Authorities

Different Levels of SHMA Impact

•Regional

– Developing regional housing policy evidence base

– Informing Regional Housing Strategy reviews

– Assisting with reviews of Regional Spatial Strategy

•Sub-regional

– Deepening understanding of housing markets at the strategic (usually sub-regional) level

– Developing an evidence base for sub-regional housing strategy

•Local

– Developing an evidence base for Local Development Documents

– Assisting with production of local Core Strategies

OVERVIEW OF THE AREACurrent Housing Market

Index of Multiple Deprivation

Source: CLG

Housing Tenure

Source: Census 2001, SHMA 2008 Preliminary Analysis

Private Rented Stock: 2001

Source: SHMA 2008

Private Rented Stock: 2008

Source: SHMA 2008

South East London:

Current demographics compared to all England

Source: ONS Mid-year Population Estimate

Source: ONS Mid-year Population Estimate

South East London:

Projected population growth to 2001-26

Source: GLA 2007 Round Population Projections

Increase in Number of Dwellings2001-2007

Source: Census 2001, VOA 2007

MIGRATION AND LOCAL ECONOMYHousing Market Drivers

International Migration2001-06

Source: ONS Migration Unit

UK Migration 2002-2007

Source: NHS Central Register

Number of SE London Migrants moving within the UK by Age: 2007

Source: NHS Central Register

Net SE London Migrants moving within the UK by Age: 2007

Source: NHS Central Register

Net Migration2001-06

Bexley Bromley Greenwich Lewisham Southwark

UK

In-migrants 51,800 74,900 70,800 80,800 88,700

Out-migrants 52,700 75,000 81,000 102,700 116,800

Net Change -900 -100 -10,200 -21,900 -28,100

International

In-migrants 3,800 9,400 17,200 22,400 43,100

Out-migrants 3,300 10,400 10,700 9,900 16,200

Net Change +500 -1,000 +6,500 +12,500 +26,900

TOTAL -400 -1,100 -3,700 -9,400 -1,200

Source: ONS Migration Unit

Household Income:

Existing vs. Migrant Households

All Households

In-migrants Out-migrant

Household Income Mean (£ pa)

Bexley 34,200 38,700 38,900

Bromley - - -

Greenwich 32,000 47,200 42,400

Lewisham 37,400 41,100 42,100

Southwark 29,900 36,100 38,000

Source: SHMA 2008 Preliminary Analysis

Household Income

Source: SHMA 2008

Household Income:

Households with Incomes less than £20,000

Mean Income

Median Income

% under £20K

Household Income (£ pa)

Bexley 34,200 25,800 40%

Bromley - - -

Greenwich 32,000 22,200 48%

Lewisham 37,400 19,200 52%

Southwark 29,900 16,800 56%

Source: SHMA 2008 Preliminary Analysis

Employment Sector Trends

Source: Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey

Employment Sector Trends

Source: Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey

HOUSING COSTSHousing Market Drivers

Annual Change in House Prices

Source: Land Registry

Annual Change in House Prices

Source: Land Registry

Annual Change in House Prices

Source: Land Registry

Annual Change in House Prices

Source: Land Registry

Annual Change in House Prices

Source: Land Registry

Annual Change in House Prices

Source: Land Registry

Annual Change in House Prices

Source: Land Registry

Prices are now falling very fast

More to come

Plus…

Loss of new build premium

New home prices down by 20-40%

Source: Nationwide, Halifax

with a big hit to turnover – particularly take up of new homes

most notably amongst

• investors• first time buyers

Source: HBF, Bank of England

Fastest falls are in the South of England

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

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Change in last year Change from peak

Source: Nationwide to Sep 08

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Q41998

Q41999

Q42000

Q42001

Q42002

Q42003

Q42004

Q42005

Q42006

Q42007

Q42008

% N

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Rental growth New rental instructions Tenant demand

Source: RICS

Underlying demand is still there

But…Higher supply is leading to rental weakness

Any Questions…….

Jonathan LeeOpinion Research Services

jonathan.lee@ors.org.uk

Issues for Discussion…

•What is the role of the South East London boroughs in relation to Greater London?

•What are their individual and collective strengths and weaknesses?

•Do the South East London boroughs constitute a cohesive sub-region?

•What are the opportunities and threats for these boroughs in the current market?

•How might things change over the longer-term?