southern africa sulphur workshop 2015 icct

Benefits of Low Sulphur Fuels and Cleaner Vehicles in Southern Africa

Ray Minjares, ICCT Clean Air Program

Southern Africa sub-Regional Low Sulphur Workshop

July 7, 2015

Outdoor air pollution is the ninth leading contributor to global disease burden

Clean, low-sulfur fuel coupled with a vehicle emission control program are the solution in the transport sector

SADC countries should adopt a low sulphur fuels strategy as the foundation of a comprehensive emissions control program

Global adoption of Euro 6/VI fuels and vehicles can eliminate 75 percent of future deaths caused by vehicle emissions

Key Messages

3.7 million deaths from ambient air pollution in 2012

WHO (2014). Ambient (outdoor) and household (indoor) air pollution global and regional burden of disease data. Annual Review of Public Health. Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization.

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Global Passenger Vehicles will Triple in Number by 2050

2030 2x v.2005 __

2050 3x v.2005 __

WHO Finds Diesel Exhaust Causes Cancer (2012)

“The scientific evidence was compelling and the Working Group’s conclusion was unanimous: diesel engine exhaust causes lung cancer in humans.”

-Dr. Christopher Portier

International Agency for Research on Cancer. (2012, June 12). IARC: Diesel Engine Exhaust Carcinogenic. JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Lyon, France: World Health Organization. doi:10.1093/jnci/djs034

Black Carbon is a key target

• Penetrates deep into the lungs

• The second largest contributor to climate warming after CO2

• Greater than 90 percent of transport-related black carbon comes from diesels

• Up to 99 percent removal efficiency with diesel particulate filter

WHO Report on Health Impacts of Black Carbon (2012)

“BC may not be a major directly toxic component of fine PM, but it may operate as a universal carrier of a wide variety of chemicals of varying toxicity..”

“…removing particulates with a modern diesel particle trap …resulted in a complete absence of cardiovascular effects.”

Janssen, N. A. H., Gerlofs-Nijland, M. E., Lanki, T., Salonen, R. O., Cassee, F., Hoek, G., et al. (2012). Health Effects of Black Carbon (pp. 1–96). Copenhagen: World Health Organization.

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Fuels and Vehicles Act as a Single System

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Technology Shift Towards Emissions Control

Courtesy of ClearAire, Inc.

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Los Angeles reduced airborne cancer risk by 50% since 2005 largely from diesel controls

2012 No Diesel PM

2005 2012

Hypothetical: No Diesel PM

http://www.aqmd.gov/docs/default-source/air-quality/air-toxic-studies/mates-iv/mates-iv-draft-report-10-1-14.pdf?sfvrsn=4

Emission Controls with Stringent Fuel and Vehicle Standards

http://www.theicct.org/global-health-roadmap

Status of Low-Sulphur Fuels in 2015

Costs and Benefits of AFRI-4 Fuels in SSA

Billions 2007 Dollars

SSA Total

West Africa

East Africa Southern Africa

5-Year Refinery Investment Costs

$ 2.76 B $ 0.47 B $ 2.13 B 0.59 B

Health Benefits over 5 Years1

$ 25 B $ 18 B $ 5.3 B $ 1.0 B

10-year Refinery Investment Costs

$ 6.14 B $ 4.96 B $ 2.48 B $ 0.99 B

Health Benefits over 10 Years1

$ 43 B $ 33 B $ 9.0 B $ 1.8 B

1. Central value shown for elasticity=1.5; ranges for elasticities of 1.0 and 2.0 are shown in the report. For Scenario 2

(lower sulfur fuel and pollution control equipment) and alternate 2-stroke motorcycle emissions assumptions.

ICF International (2009). Final Report: Sub-Saharan Africa Refinery Project Executive Summary. Submitted to the World Bank and the African Refiners Association. June 2009

Total Investments (USD)

Per liter costs: Gasoline

Per liter costs:Diesel

China $6.9 billion 0.66-0.78¢ 1.42-1.83¢

Mexico $3.3 billion 1.10-1.40¢ 2.50-3.20¢

Brazil $6.3 billion 1.64-1.96¢ 1.55-1.96¢

India $4.1 billion 0.70-0.87¢ 0.64-0.88¢

Costs of Euro 6/VI Fuels in other countries

Details: China – value of moving to Euro VI-equivalent standards

Benefits Costs Net Benefits

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500

1,000

1,500

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Climate Benefits Health Benefits Costs of Emission Standards

Costs of Fuel Standards Net Benefits

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Details: Mexico – value of moving to heavy-duty standards equivalent to Euro VI

Benefits Costs Net benefits

Net benefits 0 0 122.775063891824

Cost of vehicle technologies 0 -3.51121271867693 0

Cost of DEF 0 -2.49690190613351 0

Cost of fuel standards 0 -6.0471713141831 0

Climate benefits GWP-20 10.3788248127904 0 0

Health benefits 124.451525018027 0 0

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Projections of future health impacts of vehicle emissions

Source: ICCT Health Roadmap (2013)

Annual premature mortality by region, 2000–2030

Euro 6/VI Adopted

ICCT/UNEP launching a Soot-Free Urban Bus Project in 2015

Seeking city-level commitments to procure only soot-free buses

Johannesburg included in 20 target cities globally Central maintenance and fueling = lower barriers First 6 committed cities will receive

implementation assistance

Near-term : Pursue Early Intervention in Targeted Fleets such as via Soot-Free Bus Fleet

Long-term: Pursue a comprehensive vehicle emission control strategy

Clean Transportation

Clean vehicle technology

Transportation and land use

planning

Clean fuels

Appropriate inspection,

maintenance, & enforcement

Fuel quality is the foundation for air pollution control in the transport sector

Low sulphur fuels are necessary to: Reduce sulphate particulate emissions from all vehicles Enable emission control equipment that produce the

greatest reductions in vehicle emissions overall

Cleaner fuels must be coupled to cleaner vehicles to realize their full health and environmental benefits

Conclusions

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Thank You

Ray MinjaresICCT Clean Air Program

ray@theicct.org